It is time to start obsessively tracking this. If it is buried in a different thread I apologize. The tiebreaker scenarios are:

Head-to-head competition
Win percentage against common opponents
Win percentage against common opponents based on order of finish
Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
Team Rating Score metric from SportSource Analytics
Coin toss

There are 4 teams at 4-1. Ohio is the only team not playing any of the other 1 loss teams. BG is playing both Miami & WMU (at home), not to mention a tough road game at Ball St.

Toledo & Buffalo are at 3-2 and still have a shot should 3 of the 1 loss teams lose a game, something that seems very plausible.

If Ohio wins out, they still need a little bit of help but it seems near certain we would be in. If any of the other 3 lose to someone other than each other, Ohio would be in. If BG were to split with Miami & WMU, Ohio would be in. If BG were to lose both and Miami/WMU also run the table, it gets real complicated but my hunch tells me Ohio would finish the tiebreakers ahead of WMU.

Possibly a more likely scenario to examine is Ohio losing at Toledo and joining a large group of 2 loss teams in a massive tiebreaker. That gets so complicated I figure we wait 1 more week before even exploring.

WMU got the luck of the draw with the non-division scheduling this year: no Ohio, no Miami, no Toledo and they've already beat Buffalo and Ball State. One more test against BG, then you've got the directional Michigan rivalries which who the hell knows what happens there.

@BG
@CMU
EMU

BG probably has the toughest remaining schedule of the contenders, but two of those are at home.

WMU
@Ball State
Miami

Miami really needs to lose to NIU if Ohio doesn't want to sweat out that last week.

Kent State
NIU
@BG

Ohio's job is simple: win out and pray for the best. You know what you need to do by 11/20 since Miami/NIU is the day before.

EMU
@Toledo
Ball State

Toledo's path is less clear, but beat Ohio and get lucky with the other three teams and all of sudden you're back in it.

CMU
Ohio
@Akron

Buffalo probably has the easiest path of resistance, but also need help.

Ball State
@EMU
Kent State

I'm cheering for BG to beat WMU. It guarantees that two of Miami, BG, and WMU will finish with two or more losses. Thereby, Ohio can control its own destiny. Or Miami can lose one more game to anyone and Ohio gets in by winning out.

Rules: https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_...

1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
2. Win percentage versus all common opponents.
3. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.
4. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.
5. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score
metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of
regular season games.
6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the
Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee

If they are both 7-1 there is likely to be a third team tied, probably Miami. So this might not be the exact procedure.
1. They'd both be 0-0
2. They'd both be unbeaten against common opponents if their records are 7-1
3. If they're both unbeaten against common opponents this fails to get a winner too.
4. If I counted correctly, Ohio's past and future MAC opponents have 16 wins to WMU's 15. So I think we have a better that 50/50 chance of winning here. If this doesn't settle it then it looks like it goes to some sort of computer system.

Ohio has beat the worse 3 teams in the league and 3-2 Buffalo. We keep talking about winning out. Every game could be a loss or a win depending on which team shows up to play. Most years we lose a game that we probably shouldn’t have. Hold on to your hats.

I don't think anyone is expecting to win out, but it is definitely possible. You've got to feel good about the 2 home games, at Toledo will be tough. As LC said, even a 6-2 finish just missing out on the MACC game has to be viewed pretty positively considered all the transition that occurred.

At this moment I'm with you and trying to enjoy each win as it happens. If the Cats only win 1 out of the last 3 and the bowl game that is still 8-5 which I would consider to be a successful season. When you are going for your 4th or 5th win and get it thats nice but when you are in play for your 7th or 8th its a sweeter reward.

Don't be harshing our mellow dude.

He gets an automatic contract extension when OU wins at least 8 games.

I would’ve said no way last year, but I think Curt Cig is really helping his cause. Tim will be 60. Curt is 62, I believe. Game has been going younger, but I can see maybe someone like Tulsa giving up on Wilson.

Hes been in Athens forever. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a lifer.

Either way, I wouldn’t be upset about it. His kids are grown. He’s had a long, long career. If you wanna take your shot at a bigger program have at it boss. Get your one big payday.

With that said, secure Brian ASAP.

Ohio is going to mess around and win the MAC Championship! Just watch. This team has been flying under the radar all season long and now sits in 4-way 1st place tie with three games to go. True, Ohio has benefitted from its schedule having avoided teams like BG, WMU and NIU. There's no doubt about it that Ohio got a great draw with the schedule. And when you look at what's left on the schedule for the 1st place teams, Ohio still has the best draw remaining. BG still has to play BOTH WMU and Miami, Miami still has to play BG and NIU, and WMU still has to play BG. Ohio's toughest remaining game is Toledo and they're on the outside looking in. BG or WMU will be dealt a loss on Tuesday, and BG or Miami will be dealt a loss in the last week of conference play. Ohio and WMU have had the easiest roads in the MAC to this point and Ohio still has the easiest schedule to go of the 4 teams tied for 1st with three games to go. I'll roll the dice with Ohio having to beat whatever team they face in Detroit for a winner-takes-all title shot. Sit back and enjoy the ride!

LC showed that this is certain.

But you say this every year.