LC: Isn't regression to the mean predicated on largely similar factors of production, or resources? I think Ohio has moved forward in a way that isn't going to change dramatically once Coach Solich retires. I can't see us going back to an undesireable destination for recruits, maybe a hundred people tailgating, and crowds normally under 10,000.
Of course, there is a danger of regressing if we make a bad hire. Or if we get a new university president who doesn't see much value in athletics.
Certainly the facilities upgrades such as the IPF and the Academic center will change the dynamics from the past. The same can be said for the fan-building efforts, which has spread Bobcat fandom to the north and west, and the closer ties to high school programs across the state.
That's why I've said that the contributions Solich have made go far beyond "coaching", and constitute "program building". To merely focus on what has (or hasn't been) achieved on the field significantly understates the contributions that Solich has made to Ohio long term.
Most MAC coaches come in with the plan to come in and coach for a few years, hopefully do well, and then move up and out. Maybe that was what Solich has in mind when he arrived, I don't know, but what he has actually done, from day one, is to constantly try to build the fan base, facilities, and ties to Ohio high school programs across the state, which is something only someone with a long term perspective would do. If you're only planning on being at a place 3-4 years, why worry about an IPF, which would take 5 years of lobbying to get started, a couple more years to raise money, and then another 1-2 years to build?
Because of where Ohio is, I agree, Jeff, I don't think that there is any chance that Ohio will regress to the extent that they were in the 90s. Yet, look at Ohio's history, and you see that after Peden came Widdoes who was pretty good, but not quite as good as Peden. Similarly, after Hess came Burke, who was pretty good, but not quite as good as Hess. (I know I skipped Wise and Kappes who were both very short term). That's more what I was picturing when I talked about regression to the mean, a coach who was close, but not quite as good. Another similar example from another school would be at CMU, where it took a few coaches for them to regress, but they regressed from the top of the MAC to the middle of the MAC West.
In any case, my point is, Ohio could continue to move up, but they could also go the other way. A move in either direction is certainly not a given, and it will be interesting to see how it develops.