Here's why a lot of us say it's mediocre: 2-10. That's our record against FBS teams that have finished the season with a winning record over the last three years. That's the measuring stick I have for quality. Not winning the pathetic MAC East. Not winning seven or eight games. Not moral victories. How do we stack up against good FBS teams? The clear answer is not very well.
http://i.imgur.com/m4119Ba.gif Pretty much how I picture this conversation going with folks who "ignore" that 2-10 mark.
Since no one has risen to this bait, I'll chum the waters a bit. I went back another year to 2013. Since then, we are 3-14 against FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Less than one win per year over the last four years. Two of those wins are Marshall and one is this year's win at Toledo. This program's consistency is a mirage.
I don't want to do this but I have to do this.
All-time finish in Solich regime versus opponents who finished with a winning record: 19-45. Only one season did Ohio finish with a better than .500 record versus winning record opponents, in 2011.
We've had this discussion a million times. I don't find that statistic particularly useful. The vast majority of teams have losing records versus teams with winning records. That's how statistics work. The only way I would take this argument seriously is if someone actually took the time to show me how many teams have a winning record each year against winning teams. It can't be more than a handful. There are many more wins to be gained from 2-10 teams and 5-7 teams than there are from 11-1 teams.
Here's a couple over the last few years
Toledo (14-10 last four seasons)
WMU (9-15 last four seasons)
NIU (9-15 last four seasons)
BG (7-18 last four seasons)
Ohio (6-15 last four seasons)
And that WMU includes their 1-11 season and BGs 4-8 season.
WMU, Ohio and NIU are the only teams that have had same coaches during that stretch. WMU and NIU's both reflect career marks at respective schools for both Fleck and Carey (both only been there four years)
BG has had three coaches during that stretch....Toledo two coaches.
Ohio....one coach....who is in his 12th year.
Obvious that A) Ohio doesn't have same success...and B) they don't play nearly as good as schedule. Blame the East all you want....but BG plays relatively same conference schedule and they have 4 more games vs. better competition than Ohio during that stretch. That's one per season...and that's a lot considering you only really play three FBS schools out-of-conference each year.
Ohio doesn't have the same opportunity to get those wins vs. teams over .500 because they don't play them. That's a call to quit scheduling Texas State, New Mexico State, Idaho, etc. Challenge your team a little....but instead you're stacking your schedule to guarantee at least a 7-8 win season.
Last Edited: 12/6/2016 10:46:51 AM by bshot44