I would hope Ohio should strive to win "perhaps half their games" each year vs. the likes of
Kent
Akron
Buffalo
Miami
BG
That should be a minimum of 3-2 each year. I think we've built a program where that is a totally acceptable expectation. Anything less than that probably means they've had a pretty blah year.
As far as Ohio's all time records against the East, since I can no longer find a Media Guide on ohiobobcats.com, I pulled these off of Stassen.com
V. Miami 25-29-1
v. Kent 33-20-2
v. Akron 16-9
v. Buffalo 13-8
v. BG 21-32-1
That is a total of 109-98-4. That's a bit over 50%.
Of course, the above makes a classic statistical error. It includes the data you are trying to analyze (Solich's record) in the set of data used for the
baseline. If you exclude the Solich data, the historical long term records of Ohio versus other MAC teams are:
V. Miami 15-27-1
v. Kent 26-15-2
v. Akron 6-7
v. Buffalo 6-3
v. BG 16-25-1
Thus, the pre-2005 long term record was 69-77-4, somewhat under 50%.
Meanwhile, Solich's record against the various teams is:
V. Miami 10-2
v. Kent 7-5
v. Akron 10-2
v. Buffalo 7-5
v. BG 5-7
Total 39-21, a bit better than your 3-2 goal.
What I'm saying is this. You expect at least 3-2 against this group, not because that's Ohio's long term average, but because that is what Solich has done, and since he has done it, it has become your expectation. I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with that. I'm just saying to make sure you see what you have done, and why that is your expectation. I think that you are aware of this, though, because I note that you include the phrase "I think we've built a program where..".
The same thing applies to Alan's argument. He expects Ohio to be bowl eligible every year, and thinks it is not big deal, not because it is the historical norm, but rather because Solich has done it. Again, I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with Alan having those expectations. I'm saying that Alan should recognize why he has them, and that, while they are reasonable for this place and time, they aren't reasonable for all MAC East teams, nor for Ohio for all times. I see nothing in Alan's posts, however, similar to your comment, that acknowledges that the expectation only fits because of what has been built.
Last Edited: 7/12/2017 12:26:49 PM by L.C.