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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: East Championship Scenarios
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L.C.
11/1/2017 12:42 AM
Buffalo, Kent, and BG are eliminated already. Miami is as close to eliminated as is possible while still not actually eliminated. There is only one way for them to win the East, and that is for all of the following to happen:
Ohio loses to Toledo, Akron, and Buffalo to end up 4-4
Miami beats Akron, EMU, and Ball State to end up 5-3
Akron beats Ohio, but loses to Kent and Miami to end up 5-3

Thus, the East pretty much comes down to Ohio, or Akron, and the winner of that game is almost certain to win the East because the winner has a game advantage and the tiebreaker. Note that that isn't enough if the game winner loses their other two games to end up 5-3, and the game loser wins their other two to end up 6-2.
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bshot44
11/1/2017 8:33 AM
Ohio can't beat Akron and lose to Toledo and Buffalo.

That would leave them 5-3.

If Akron loses to Ohio and beats Kent and Miami (very likely) they will finish 6-2.

This is still very much up in the air.

Beat Akron and Buffalo ... and you win the East if you're Ohio.
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C Money
11/1/2017 9:03 AM
Yep. For both Ohio and Kron, it's
(1) beat the other,
plus
(2)(a) win 1 of the other 2 remaining games, or (b) hope the other team loses both of the other remaining games.
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L.C.
11/1/2017 9:22 AM
C Money wrote:expand_more
... (b) hope the other team loses both of the other remaining games.

No, (b) should read "hope the other team loses one of the other remaining games."

If the team that wins head on head loses their other two, they end up 5-3. If the team that loses head on head loses one other game, they are also 5-3, but still lose the tiebreaker.

Thus, if Ohio beats Akron, any of the following will suffice for Ohio to win the East:
1. Beat Toledo (using odds from TeamRankings = .418)
2. Beat Buffalo (.608)
3. Akron loses to Kent (.067)
4. Akron loses to Miami. (.514)
Taken together, there is a 90% chance of Ohio winning the East if they beat Akron.

Similarly, if Akron beats Ohio, any of the following will suffice for Akron to win the East:
1. Akron beats Kent (.933)
2. Akron beats Miami (.486)
3. Ohio loses to Toledo (.582)
4. Ohio loses to Buffalo (.392)
Taken together, there is a 99% chance of Akron winning the East if they beat Ohio

There is a <<.1% chance of Miami winning the East.
Last Edited: 11/1/2017 9:31:26 AM by L.C.
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71 BOBCAT
11/1/2017 9:23 AM
I think Akron goes to Miami next week and if the Miami QB, Ragland is back Akron may be in for a game.



GO BOBCATS
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OhioBobcat
11/1/2017 9:42 AM
Let’s not make this out to be any more difficult or confusing than it needs to be. The East scenario is simple. Ohio will win it. Period. The Bobcats will be in Detroit. Akron simply can’t beat Ohio. They’ve failed each time they’ve tried over the last decade and that’s not going to change this season.
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GoCats105
11/1/2017 10:04 AM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
Let’s not make this out to be any more difficult or confusing than it needs to be. The East scenario is simple. Ohio will win it. Period. The Bobcats will be in Detroit. Akron simply can’t beat Ohio. They’ve failed each time they’ve tried over the last decade and that’s not going to change this season.
I appreciate your confidence, but tell that to Iowa State winning in Norman with a backup quarterback for the first time since 1990. Weird stuff happens in college football all the time.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
11/1/2017 10:04 AM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
Let’s not make this out to be any more difficult or confusing than it needs to be. The East scenario is simple. Ohio will win it. Period. The Bobcats will be in Detroit. Akron simply can’t beat Ohio. They’ve failed each time they’ve tried over the last decade and that’s not going to change this season.
I believe Ohio will beat Akron because Ohio is the better team. It has nothing to do with the last several years. Streaks end. They always do.
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C Money
11/1/2017 12:34 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
... (b) hope the other team loses both of the other remaining games.

No, (b) should read "hope the other team loses one of the other remaining games."

If the team that wins head on head loses their other two, they end up 5-3. If the team that loses head on head loses one other game, they are also 5-3, but still lose the tiebreaker.
Yes. You're right. That's what I get for trying to think before coffee after staying up past midnight. I was gaming out how it works if we lose to Kron but beat Toledo and Buffalo, and Kron loses their other two games. They'd be 5-3 and we'd be 6-2.

So it's (1) beat the other + win 1 one more, or (2) win the 2 remaining games + hope the other loses the remaining 2 games.

For simplicity's sake, let's just win every game we play between now and January. That's not too much to ask, is it?
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Deciduous Forest Cat
11/1/2017 12:37 PM
Beat Toledo! Would love a winning streak against these guys.
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Tymaster
11/1/2017 2:48 PM
Best case scenario is obviously just do the job and beat Akron. Beating Toledo two years in a row is a tall order. I also see Buffalo has a potential trap game. Bottom line is I won't rest easy until Akron is beaten. I have a feeling we're going to be playing Toledo a second time in Detroit and that's the game that matters...
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OhioBobcat
11/1/2017 6:52 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
Let’s not make this out to be any more difficult or confusing than it needs to be. The East scenario is simple. Ohio will win it. Period. The Bobcats will be in Detroit. Akron simply can’t beat Ohio. They’ve failed each time they’ve tried over the last decade and that’s not going to change this season.
I believe Ohio will beat Akron because Ohio is the better team. It has nothing to do with the last several years. Streaks end. They always do.
Ohio IS the better team and WILL beat Akron. The streak is only just that - a streak - but it’s proof of Akron’s inability to beat Ohio. A few years ago Akron actually had players talk to the media about how “Ohio always ruins their season.” It was in their heads back then and still continue to be to this day because they just can’t beat Ohio. They just can’t get over the hump. Even last year they had a receiver with a chance to make the game winning catch and he dropped it. They simply can’t come through in the clutch against Ohio and will crumble under the pressure. Ohio has the superior physical talent and also the mental edge against the Akron. Yes, the streak will end one year, but not this one or any year in the near future for that matter.
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OhioBobcat
11/1/2017 7:03 PM
GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Let’s not make this out to be any more difficult or confusing than it needs to be. The East scenario is simple. Ohio will win it. Period. The Bobcats will be in Detroit. Akron simply can’t beat Ohio. They’ve failed each time they’ve tried over the last decade and that’s not going to change this season.
I appreciate your confidence, but tell that to Iowa State winning in Norman with a backup quarterback for the first time since 1990. Weird stuff happens in college football all the time.
True, it does, but there’s one glaring issue with your example - Iowa State is a quality team and Akron is not. Ohio is the only decent team in the East. If Ohio were in the West, it probably wouldn’t get to Detroit this year. But it’s not in the West, and it will get to Detroit, and I love it’s chances there against any team from the West in a one-game matchup. No one wants to face Ohio in the MACC! Last year the West was put on notice as Ohio was about 25 yards away from ending the NCAA’s feel good story as a ranked and undefeated team could never pull away and was very nearly beaten.
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Pataskala
11/1/2017 8:00 PM
We win the next two and it's over. It's that simple.

Go Cats!!!!!
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TWT
11/1/2017 10:18 PM
If I am comparing performance against Eastern Michigan this season, the top teams in the West didn't fare any better than Ohio did. A common solid defensive benchmark. Ohio is also putting up the 40ppg comparable to Toledo this season. Go back to 2014 and Ohio lost to CMU by 18, WMU by 21 and NIU by 7 while averaging 15ppg in those contests.

Toledo 20-EMU 15
WMU 20-EMU 17
NIU 30-EMU 27
Ohio 27-EMU 20
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TWT
11/1/2017 10:34 PM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
True, it does, but there’s one glaring issue with your example - Iowa State is a quality team and Akron is not. Ohio is the only decent team in the East. If Ohio were in the West, it probably wouldn’t get to Detroit this year. But it’s not in the West, and it will get to Detroit, and I love it’s chances there against any team from the West in a one-game matchup. No one wants to face Ohio in the MACC! Last year the West was put on notice as Ohio was about 25 yards away from ending the NCAA’s feel good story as a ranked and undefeated team could never pull away and was very nearly beaten.
Iowa State these days is a legit P5 program. It doesn't have a minuscule budget and fan support compared to its Big XII peers. Its in the mid range. Wins against Oklahoma and TCU both Top 10 this season. Akron was able to keep the score low against WMU to pull out a W but can't compete with a high scoring MAC offense as shown losing big to Toledo. The fear would be more could NIU get hot and pull off a win against Ohio in Detroit? That would be more equivalent to the Iowa State upset of OU than Akron doing anything against the bobcats.
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TWT
11/1/2017 10:48 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
There is a <<.1% chance of Miami winning the East.
Email that one to the Miami coaching staff.
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Ted Thompson
11/7/2017 11:00 PM
If Ohio wins at Akron next Tuesday night, the Bobcats clinch the MAC East.
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Sam bobcat
11/8/2017 12:42 PM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
No one wants to face Ohio in the MACC! Last year the West was put on notice as Ohio was about 25 yards away from ending the NCAA’s feel good story as a ranked and undefeated team could never pull away and was very nearly beaten.
Damn straight!
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C Money
11/9/2017 7:49 AM
So now it's:
OHIO - (1) Beat Kron, or (2) (a) beat Buffalo + (b) Kron lose to Kent
Kron - (1) (a) Beat OHIO + (b) (i) beat Kent or (ii) Buffalo beat OHIO
Fiami - (1) (a) Beat EMU + (b) beat Ball + (c) Kron beat OHIO + (d) Buffalo beat OHIO + (e) Kent beat Kron

Right? Or would Fiami's scenario somehow create a 3-way tie (all three teams at 5-3) that works out so OHIO or Kron wins? I can't remember the MAC's 3-way tiebreakers where all three teams have wins over each other.
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mf279801
11/9/2017 8:02 AM
C Money wrote:expand_more
So now it's:
OHIO - (1) Beat Kron, or (2) (a) beat Buffalo + (b) Kron lose to Kent
Kron - (1) (a) Beat OHIO + (b) (i) beat Kent or (ii) Buffalo beat OHIO
Fiami - (1) (a) Beat EMU + (b) beat Ball + (c) Kron beat OHIO + (d) Buffalo beat OHIO + (e) Kent beat Kron

Right? Or would Fiami's scenario somehow create a 3-way tie (all three teams at 5-3) that works out so OHIO or Kron wins? I can't remember the MAC's 3-way tiebreakers where all three teams have wins over each other. [/QUOTE]Most recent MAC tiebreakers I could find (May 2015) (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/am... )

[quote=SBNation] MAC
Two teams: Head-to-head

Three or more teams:

Head-to-head record among tied teams
Record of tied teams within the division (versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams)
Comparison of conference winning percentage of cross-over opponents of tied teams
So in the above scenario, we’d have a 3-way tie at 5-3, and each team would be 1-1 vs the other two.

Within the division, OHIO would be 3-2 under that scenario, Miami would be 2-3, and Akron would be 3-2 (if I understood your scenario correctly), so then Miami would fall out of the consideration and OHIO vs Akron Head-to-head would determine the east championship game representative (Akron under CMoney’s “Miami” Scenario. So long story short, I think that means that Miami is fully out of consideration...right?


Edit: okay, I just modeled out every possible game outcome (all 32 of them...I’m at my gate waiting for a flight). In 20 of them, Ohio wins the division outright (and I think that’s the only way we win the division), either by beating Akron next week (16 of 32 outcomes) or by losing to Akron + beating Buffalo + Akron losing to Kent (4 of 16 outcomes). If Akron beats us and Kent, they finish 6-2, either winning the division outright (if we lose to Buffalo, 4 of the possible outcomes) Or winning the division over 6-2 Ohio (we beat Buffalo) based on the head-to-head result (4 of the possible outcomes). Then, in three of the final 4 possible outcomes (Ohio 5-3, Akron 5-3, Miami 3-5 or 4-4), Akron wins the division based on our head to head record. In the final possible outcome, all three of us are 5-3 and Akron wins based on the aforementioned tiebreakers.

Annnnd I’ve kept myself nicely entertained while waiting for my flight :)
Last Edited: 11/9/2017 8:35:15 AM by mf279801
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L.C.
11/9/2017 9:53 AM
Ohio's win eliminated Miami since the worst Ohio can finish is 5-3, and the best Miami can finish is 5-3, and Ohio has the tiebreaker. In the event that Akron, Ohio, and Miami all finish 5-3, Miami loses the tiebreaker to both Ohio and Akron.

If Ohio beats Akron, then win the East. If Akron wins, there are three possibilities:
1. Akron beats Kent to finish 6-2: Akron wins (Ohio-Buffalo doesn't matter)
2. Akron loses to Kent, Ohio loses to Buffalo. Both finish 5-3: Akron wins
4. Akron loses to Kent to finish 5-3, Ohio beats Buffalo to be 6-2: Ohio wins

mf279801 wrote:expand_more
... So in the above scenario, we’d have a 3-way tie at 5-3, and each team would be 1-1 vs the other two.
...

No. Akron would be 2-0, Ohio would be 1-1, and Miami would be 0-2. In any tie at 5-3, whether 2 way, or 3 way, Akron wins.
Last Edited: 11/9/2017 9:55:56 AM by L.C.
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Ted Thompson
11/9/2017 9:58 AM

L.C. wrote:expand_more
Ohio's win eliminated Miami since the worst Ohio can finish is 5-3, and the best Miami can finish is 5-3, and Ohio has the tiebreaker. In the event that Akron, Ohio, and Miami all finish 5-3, Miami loses the tiebreaker to both Ohio and Akron.

If Ohio beats Akron, then win the East. If Akron wins, there are three possibilities:
1. Akron beats Kent to finish 6-2: Akron wins (Ohio-Buffalo doesn't matter)
2. Akron loses to Kent, Ohio loses to Buffalo. Both finish 5-3: Akron wins
4. Akron loses to Kent to finish 5-3, Ohio beats Buffalo to be 6-2: Ohio wins

... So in the above scenario, we’d have a 3-way tie at 5-3, and each team would be 1-1 vs the other two.
...

No. Akron would be 2-0, Ohio would be 1-1, and Miami would be 0-2. In any tie at 5-3, whether 2 way, or 3 way, Akron wins. 

Akron lost to Miami so all 3 teams would be 1-1, right?

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UpSan Bobcat
11/9/2017 10:33 AM
Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
Ohio's win eliminated Miami since the worst Ohio can finish is 5-3, and the best Miami can finish is 5-3, and Ohio has the tiebreaker. In the event that Akron, Ohio, and Miami all finish 5-3, Miami loses the tiebreaker to both Ohio and Akron.

If Ohio beats Akron, then win the East. If Akron wins, there are three possibilities:
1. Akron beats Kent to finish 6-2: Akron wins (Ohio-Buffalo doesn't matter)
2. Akron loses to Kent, Ohio loses to Buffalo. Both finish 5-3: Akron wins
4. Akron loses to Kent to finish 5-3, Ohio beats Buffalo to be 6-2: Ohio wins

... So in the above scenario, we’d have a 3-way tie at 5-3, and each team would be 1-1 vs the other two.
...

No. Akron would be 2-0, Ohio would be 1-1, and Miami would be 0-2. In any tie at 5-3, whether 2 way, or 3 way, Akron wins.

Akron lost to Miami so all 3 teams would be 1-1, right?
Right, and I think as it said before, the three-way tie at 5-3 would go to Akron based on division record eliminating Miami and then Akron having a head-to-head over Ohio. So Miami cannot win the division. If Ohio beats Akron, Ohio is MAC East champ. If Akron wins, it is MAC East champ as long as it beats Kent or Ohio loses to Buffalo.
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C Money
11/9/2017 11:14 AM
The West just got more interesting too, and won't be decided until the day after Thanksgiving. Toledo still controls their own destiny, but NIU, CMU, and WMU all have not-unreasonable paths.

NIU: Win out + Toledo lose to WMU on the day after Thanksgiving
CMU: Win out + Toledo lose to WMU on the day after Thanksgiving
WMU: Win out + CMU lose to NIU on the day after Thanksgiving
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