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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Any shot at at-large bid?
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genessee
2/11/2022 6:37 PM
Any chance to get an at large bid at 27-4 in the regular season with a loss in the MAC championship game?
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Victory
2/11/2022 6:55 PM
genessee wrote:expand_more
Any chance to get an at large bid at 27-4 in the regular season with a loss in the MAC championship game?
We discussed this at length last week. Getting an at-large bid means losing in the MAC tournament. That gives us 5 losses. MAC teams have gotten in 20 years ago with several more than that. But the MAC is very down. We will have no Q1 wins. Teams have gotten in with a very similar resume as we would have but it is pretty rare. Our strength of record might be OK to be considered but our NET rating is being pulled down by our penchant for beating everyone by 8 points no matter how bad they are. I think that it is close to impossible at this point.
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Cellis033
2/11/2022 7:02 PM
genessee wrote:expand_more
Any chance to get an at large bid at 27-4 in the regular season with a loss in the MAC championship game?
Tbh, I expect to have zero chance considering our NET ranking and lack of Q1 wins.
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FearLeon
2/11/2022 7:20 PM
29-5 won’t even have us sniffing the bubble.
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The Optimist
2/11/2022 7:27 PM
To answer your question, yes. It's a non-zero probability. But it's closer to 1 in 1000 than 1 in 100.
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GraffZ06
2/11/2022 8:15 PM
5 losses with a NET rating in the 70s or 80s and no Q1 wins will put us squarely on the bubble.

Of the NIT.
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BurritoBuggy4
2/11/2022 8:31 PM
genessee wrote:expand_more
Any chance to get an at large bid at 27-4 in the regular season with a loss in the MAC championship game?
*politely, but firmly* No.
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SVAC83
2/11/2022 8:54 PM
On a average year our record and our resume would put us on the bubble. The weakness of the MAC is the real problem here. the MAC is usually a lot better then it is this year. The key for a MAC team usually is no bad loses most MAC teams get off the bubble by loosing to a bad MAC team. The 4 loses this team has and if it would lose in a MAc final to toledo in a regular year i think this team would be in tourney. Because you would have played a quality schedule and had several wins against probably the top 115 and no bad losses this year. the quality of the league kills any chance. i think if they win out and lose in championship game they are a easily in the NIT.
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The Optimist
2/11/2022 10:15 PM
THE MAC IS A TWO-BID LEAGUE.

https://twitter.com/JordanStrack/status/14919652545317928...
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Cellis033
2/12/2022 12:03 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
One thing I agree with what he has to say.
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Jeff McKinney
2/12/2022 12:21 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more

He's wrong.
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GraffZ06
2/12/2022 12:27 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
Of course he's going to say that. He's fighting for an NCAA bid that he lost out on by losing to us in Cleveland last year - and his team is the one team in the MAC with the highest rankings this year - so they would be the first logical recipient of said second bid if they stumble again in Cleveland.

Doesn't mean it makes sense or is rooted in reality. Just that if anybody in the world would be lobbying for a 2nd MAC bid this year it'd be Coach K.

Toledo isn't sniffing an at-large bid either though.

Current rankings -

KenPom: 75
Sagarin: 80
Torvik: 71
RPI: 38
NET: 70
BPI: 64
SOR: 63

Average (FWIW): 65.9

You have to be in the top 50 to be in the discussion, and realistically top 45 to have a good shot. RPI is the ONLY ranking that has them in that range. Toledo is going to have anywhere from 15-25 teams ahead of them in the at-large bubble discussions if they don't get the auto bid IMO.
Last Edited: 2/12/2022 12:29:27 AM by GraffZ06
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greencat
2/12/2022 12:32 AM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
Toledo is going to have anywhere from 15-25 teams ahead of them in the at-large bubble discussions if they don't get the auto bid IMO.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/10/17/sauplo...
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GraffZ06
2/12/2022 1:25 AM
greencat wrote:expand_more
Toledo is going to have anywhere from 15-25 teams ahead of them in the at-large bubble discussions if they don't get the auto bid IMO.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/10/17/sauplo...
LOL
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The Optimist
2/12/2022 5:58 PM
One big positive for the MAC is that RPI ranking. While it isn't a great metric early in the season, it gains credence late in season.

There is a reason it's the only computer metric shown on TV on selection Sunday.

If we win out and Toledo wins out but loses to us in the championship, there's a very real possibility they will be Top-40 in the RPI

...

Even if you disagree about the odds, I do think the MAC office should absolutely be promoting our teams as potential at-large bids. Even if it's a Longshot, it's good publicity and may help get us on the radar of people who otherwise may not have noticed... no reason not to...
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GraffZ06
2/12/2022 6:06 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
One big positive for the MAC is that RPI ranking. While it isn't a great metric early in the season, it gains credence late in season.

There is a reason it's the only computer metric shown on TV on selection Sunday.
[/QUOTE]

TV shows might show it out of habit from when it was a key metric by the committee in years past but it isn't anymore. The selection committee uses NET.

[QUOTE=The Optimist]
Even if you disagree about the odds, I do think the MAC office should absolutely be promoting our teams as potential at-large bids. Even if it's a Longshot, it's good publicity and may help get us on the radar of people who otherwise may not have noticed... no reason not to...
Totally agree. Always lobby. Always talk yourself up. Still won't make it reality.
Last Edited: 2/12/2022 6:07:40 PM by GraffZ06
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bornacatfan
2/12/2022 8:30 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
O
...

Even if you disagree about the odds, I do think the MAC office should absolutely be promoting our teams as potential at-large bids. Even if it's a Longshot, it's good publicity and may help get us on the radar of people who otherwise may not have noticed... no reason not to...
I totally agree with this....OTOH I think the MAC office should be pushing teams to schedule and play better games in non con.

the tweeted reply sums it up well

For his claim regarding being “every bit as good as 3/4 in the MW and WCC” - KenPom:

Toledo: 72nd
Ohio: 99th

Wyoming(MW3): 35th
SDSU(MW4): 43rd

USF(WCC3): 39th
BYU(WCC4): 50th

That is a pretty big divide
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MonroeClassmate
2/12/2022 8:58 PM
Both teams win out and meet in the MAC Final.

No team leads by more than 2 points the entire game with numerous lead changes and a large TV audience love the heavy weight bout.

Toledo up one with 3 seconds remaining and fouled goes to the line and sinks both free throws. The inbound to Sears results in the Lefty avoiding the foul and winging the ball three quarters court as the buzzer sounds to miraculously tie the game.

The game then ties the overtime record of 7 additional 5 minute sessions when OHIO's walk-on and former manager, forced into the game because all others had fouled out or cramped up hits a buzzer beater for the Bobcat victory in the 75 minute contest.

On Sunday the committee talks about the greatest of all the Conference Championship games and gives Toledo a slot in the Dance.
Last Edited: 2/12/2022 8:59:06 PM by MonroeClassmate
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OhioCatFan
2/12/2022 9:40 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
Both teams win out and meet in the MAC Final.

No team leads by more than 2 points the entire game with numerous lead changes and a large TV audience love the heavy weight bout.

Toledo up one with 3 seconds remaining and fouled goes to the line and sinks both free throws. The inbound to Sears results in the Lefty avoiding the foul and winging the ball three quarters court as the buzzer sounds to miraculously tie the game.

The game then ties the overtime record of 7 additional 5 minute sessions when OHIO's walk-on and former manager, forced into the game because all others had fouled out or cramped up hits a buzzer beater for the Bobcat victory in the 75 minute contest.

On Sunday the committee talks about the greatest of all the Conference Championship games and gives Toledo a slot in the Dance.
Who can not like this bit of creative and imaginative writing! Not me . . . but every board has one. I know who my money is on.
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GraffZ06
2/12/2022 9:55 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
Both teams win out and meet in the MAC Final.

No team leads by more than 2 points the entire game with numerous lead changes and a large TV audience love the heavy weight bout.

Toledo up one with 3 seconds remaining and fouled goes to the line and sinks both free throws. The inbound to Sears results in the Lefty avoiding the foul and winging the ball three quarters court as the buzzer sounds to miraculously tie the game.

The game then ties the overtime record of 7 additional 5 minute sessions when OHIO's walk-on and former manager, forced into the game because all others had fouled out or cramped up hits a buzzer beater for the Bobcat victory in the 75 minute contest.

On Sunday the committee talks about the greatest of all the Conference Championship games and gives Toledo a slot in the Dance.
Haha. Vegas must absolutely love you!
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Taiwan BC
2/12/2022 11:30 PM
Speaking of scheduling and NET rankings and the like, Matt Norlander from Eye on College Basketball was talking about Murray State and their strength of scheduling tactics. They way I understood it was, instead of playing low level D1 teams that may hurt the strength of schedule before league play, they schedule more D3 games (Or like) that won't count against their computer numbers as the season goes on. Sure, less D1 games but, strength of schedule is better. Interesting idea at the least.
So, schedule all the games you can with higher difficulty first, then work backwards until you have just have 4 or 5 open dates for easy buy games. Fill 2 with D1 games and then have 3 D3 games... Boom! Looks like we just figured out our scheduling strategy for next year. Well, in my mind that's how it would work anyways...

Go Bobcats!
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giacomo
2/13/2022 4:35 PM
I think so, because of what we did last year. If we lose a tight championship game to Toledo. Slim, and it would also depend on others.
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FearLeon
2/13/2022 5:01 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
I think so, because of what we did last year. If we lose a tight championship game to Toledo. Slim, and it would also depend on others.
As much as I want to believe it, 29-5 with a loss in MAC title game will not get us close to the bubble. We don't have the resume and that's just a fact. Can't do anything about it except win 3 games in 3 days in Cleveland.
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Andrew Ruck
2/14/2022 8:30 AM
Love Kowalczyk's passion and advocating for the league. We have been lucky to have him in the conference for so long in the same way we were with Dambrot, Coles, etc. Coaches who have sustained competitiveness and stick around for a 10+ year run is what this league needs.

Giacomo made a good point about what we did last year mattering. Or frankly, what we've done in our last 3 appearances going 4-3. I understand computers rule the process these days but you hope the name Ohio sticks out to a lot of people in March by this point.

But...we have had this conversation a lot over the years only for us to end it with a stumble. As much as I hope I am wrong, I still expect us to stumble at least once between now and the end of the regular season.
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Pataskala
2/14/2022 9:52 AM
Given how often the #1 seed doesn't win the MAC tourney (three of the last five, at least), here's a real possibility for the MAC: Having two teams with 28 wins and neither of them getting into the NCAA tourney. With six regular season games left Ohio is 21-4 and Toledo is 20-5. If Ohio wins out in the regular season but loses in the MAC tourney semis we'll be 28-5. If Toledo wins out but loses in the final they'll be 28-6. The perils of being a one-bid league.
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