Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Any shot at at-large bid?
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TWT
2/14/2022 12:41 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Given how often the #1 seed doesn't win the MAC tourney (three of the last five, at least), here's a real possibility for the MAC: Having two teams with 28 wins and neither of them getting into the NCAA tourney. With six regular season games left Ohio is 21-4 and Toledo is 20-5. If Ohio wins out in the regular season but loses in the MAC tourney semis we'll be 28-5. If Toledo wins out but loses in the final they'll be 28-6. The perils of being a one-bid league.
The NET makes it so much tougher. Toledo is 43 in RPI and Ohio 49 which at 28 wins in the time when RPI counted would been in discussions. At one time the record over the last 10 was considered in selection which was favorable to a surging mid-major.

Everything has been made to revolve around quality wins as the measure so as to not game the numbers but the P5 has built in advantage of more games at home to pad conference win totals. Then of course higher profile coaches and usually the superior facilities that go along with it. Ohio is playing some of this game since Schaus with buy games at home and bringing in higher paid, experience D1 coaches instead of assistants. 24 wins a year is a sustainable target with these advantages.
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shabamon
2/14/2022 4:15 PM
Remember how we used to joke in the style of "worst four loss team in the country". Well, it's actually kinda true. We're the lowest rated four-loss team on KenPom. We also have the same record as Houston yet Houston's NET is 5 and we're 83.
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Kevin Finnegan
2/14/2022 6:14 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
Remember how we used to joke in the style of "worst four loss team in the country". Well, it's actually kinda true. We're the lowest rated four-loss team on KenPom. We also have the same record as Houston yet Houston's NET is 5 and we're 83.
Are we at least still allowed to say that we're the team nobody wants to face in March?
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Victory
2/14/2022 8:06 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
Remember how we used to joke in the style of "worst four loss team in the country". Well, it's actually kinda true. We're the lowest rated four-loss team on KenPom. We also have the same record as Houston yet Houston's NET is 5 and we're 83.
Three loss Wagner is beneath us in nearly all systems. But the statement still could technically be true. There are not many teams with 4 losses or less though.
Murray State is pretty clearly the worst two loss team. That list is very, very small. Gonzaga was also technically the worst undefeated team in the country for most of last year.
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GraffZ06
2/14/2022 8:28 PM
For those curious or tracking - I compiled the rankings for all MAC teams.
Updated following games on 2/13.

Team KenPom | Sag |Torv | RPI | NET | BPI | SOR - Avg

Toledo: 68 | 74 | 68 | 42 | 69 | 56 | 60 - 62.4
Ohio: 93 | 100 | 89 | 55 | 83 | 94 | 41 - 79.3
Buffalo: 117 | 107 | 131 | 118 | 114 | 104 | 130 - 117.3
Akron: 147 | 148 | 169 | 136 | 142 | 115 | 127 - 140.6
Kent St: 161 | 146 | 154 | 134 | 149 | 126 | 140 - 144.3
Bowling Green: 243 | 232 | 240 | 250 | 246 | 195 | 260 - 238.0
Ball St: 239 | 238 | 229 | 241 | 251 | 268 | 242 - 244.0
Miami: 256 | 235 | 268 | 289 | 250 | 230 | 261 - 255.6
E Michigan: 290 | 284 | 277 | 265 | 287 | 295 | 286 - 283.4
N Illinois: 307 | 318 | 314 | 285 | - | 312 | 293 - 304.8
C Michigan: 330 | 321 | 330 | 271 | 325 | 321 | 290 - 312.6
W Michigan: 354 | 327 | 324 | 320 | 336 | 349 | 343 - 333.6


Edit - That formatting is AWESOME *sighs*. Wish we could actually use html or tables or something.
Last Edited: 2/14/2022 8:30:54 PM by GraffZ06
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Victory
2/14/2022 9:38 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Remember how we used to joke in the style of "worst four loss team in the country". Well, it's actually kinda true. We're the lowest rated four-loss team on KenPom. We also have the same record as Houston yet Houston's NET is 5 and we're 83.
Three loss Wagner is beneath us in nearly all systems. But the statement still could technically be true. There are not many teams with 4 losses or less though.
Murray State is pretty clearly the worst two loss team. That list is very, very small. Gonzaga was also technically the worst undefeated team in the country for most of last year.
That list of 4 loss teams
Baylor
Davidson
Duke
Houston
Kansas
Kentucky
New Mexico St.
North Texas
Ohio
Purdue
South Dakota St.
Southern California
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cbus cat fan
2/14/2022 9:40 PM
Perhaps someone with more data at their finger tips could weigh in but for those of us who go back to the 80s, we tend to remember a time when there were far less Division I programs. My sense is we might have doubled the number of programs since the heyday of the Danny Nee era when the MAC could reasonably lobby for two bids.

Ohio, Ball State and Miami had some amazing teams in that deacde and Ball State had an amazing team that went to the Elite 8 in the 1990s. It gave the eventual champion UNLV their closest game of the tournament. However, later in that decade, I believe Ball State got shafted, even though they had some impressive non-conference wins. For the last 15-20 years, the committee hasn't given us much more than a sniff, even when we have two or more strong teams in the semi-finals.
Last Edited: 2/14/2022 9:49:49 PM by cbus cat fan
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Victory
2/14/2022 10:04 PM
cbus cat fan wrote:expand_more
Perhaps someone with more data at their finger tips could weigh in but for those of us who go back to the 80s, we tend to remember a time when there were far less Division I programs. My sense is we might have doubled the number of programs since the heyday of the Danny Nee era when the MAC could reasonably lobby for two bids.

Ohio, Ball State and Miami had some amazing teams in that deacde and Ball State had an amazing team that went to the Elite 8 in the 1990s. It gave the eventual champion UNLV their closest game of the tournament. However, later in that decade, I believe Ball State got shafted, even though they had some impressive non-conference wins. For the last 15-20 years, the committee hasn't given us much more than a sniff, even when we have two or more strong teams in the semi-finals.
I have a spreadsheet containing all D1 games going back to 1996. I can positively state that there were 305 D1 teams in 1996. I looked on Massey's site for 1986. That was Nee's last year. There were 283.
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Andrew Ruck
2/15/2022 7:48 AM
Victory wrote:expand_more
I have a spreadsheet containing all D1 games going back to 1996.
Uhhh, why?
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Victory
2/15/2022 8:26 AM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
I have a spreadsheet containing all D1 games going back to 1996.
Uhhh, why?
Computer rankings
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TWT
2/15/2022 10:09 AM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Perhaps someone with more data at their finger tips could weigh in but for those of us who go back to the 80s, we tend to remember a time when there were far less Division I programs. My sense is we might have doubled the number of programs since the heyday of the Danny Nee era when the MAC could reasonably lobby for two bids.

Ohio, Ball State and Miami had some amazing teams in that deacde and Ball State had an amazing team that went to the Elite 8 in the 1990s. It gave the eventual champion UNLV their closest game of the tournament. However, later in that decade, I believe Ball State got shafted, even though they had some impressive non-conference wins. For the last 15-20 years, the committee hasn't given us much more than a sniff, even when we have two or more strong teams in the semi-finals.
I have a spreadsheet containing all D1 games going back to 1996. I can positively state that there were 305 D1 teams in 1996. I looked on Massey's site for 1986. That was Nee's last year. There were 283.
Who in the MAC then in 1986 was sub 300? The answer is nobody.
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OUcats82
2/15/2022 11:32 AM
I don't have all of the stats to share, but there are a lot of strong teams in what are traditionally 1 bid leagues this year.

With the NCAA's preference for P5 teams, if any of the Murray States of the world were to tumble in their conference tournaments, the chance of the MAC getting two teams is just about nil (and it's pretty much at that point anyways with the home stretch of the regular season upon us).

The WCC could likely send 3 teams this year with Gonzaga, BYU, and San Francisco.

Had the Cats been able to beat LSU or Kentucky, their resume would be a bit more attractive. Belmont, while good, won't be enough to garner an at large.
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The Optimist
2/15/2022 12:44 PM
OUcats82 wrote:expand_more
I don't have all of the stats to share, but there are a lot of strong teams in what are traditionally 1 bid leagues this year.

With the NCAA's preference for P5 teams, if any of the Murray States of the world were to tumble in their conference tournaments, the chance of the MAC getting two teams is just about nil (and it's pretty much at that point anyways with the home stretch of the regular season upon us).

The WCC could likely send 3 teams this year with Gonzaga, BYU, and San Francisco.

Had the Cats been able to beat LSU or Kentucky, their resume would be a bit more attractive. Belmont, while good, won't be enough to garner an at large.
Ironically, Belmont beating Murray State would probably be bad. Although Belmont still has a regular season game, so maybe 2 wins over Murray is enough to knock them out but I doubt it.

People talking about the bottom of the MAC being bad, check out the OVC. Belmont, Murray and Morehead have not lost to anyone other than those 3 teams... Will be ridiculous for that conference to be a 2-bid league.
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Victory
2/15/2022 1:26 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
I don't have all of the stats to share, but there are a lot of strong teams in what are traditionally 1 bid leagues this year.

With the NCAA's preference for P5 teams, if any of the Murray States of the world were to tumble in their conference tournaments, the chance of the MAC getting two teams is just about nil (and it's pretty much at that point anyways with the home stretch of the regular season upon us).

The WCC could likely send 3 teams this year with Gonzaga, BYU, and San Francisco.

Had the Cats been able to beat LSU or Kentucky, their resume would be a bit more attractive. Belmont, while good, won't be enough to garner an at large.
Ironically, Belmont beating Murray State would probably be bad. Although Belmont still has a regular season game, so maybe 2 wins over Murray is enough to knock them out but I doubt it.

People talking about the bottom of the MAC being bad, check out the OVC. Belmont, Murray and Morehead have not lost to anyone other than those 3 teams... Will be ridiculous for that conference to be a 2-bid league.
This is always the case with the OVC. But conferences don't earn bids. Teams do. If conferences earned bids the MAC would have close to as may bids over the last 20 years as the WCC and MVC. But it doesn't. Individual MAC teams rarely step up and when they have they usually win the tournament. The OVC DID get both Belmont and Murray State in the 2019 tournament in spite of being just this weak at the bottom. The overall record of these teams was just that good like Murray State is so far this year.

We see the MAC being the 11th or 12 rated conference most years although compared to the other conferences rated 10-13 (often the WCC, MVC, CUSA) it is relatively pathetic at getting teams in the at-large bid discussion. This is because parity reigns in the MAC. The bottom of the MAC is relatively better than those conferences most of the time. It often looks more like the bottom of a 7-9 ranked league where we often find the American, MWC, and A10. Keep in mind that the MAC is still 17th or 18th ranked conference in most systems. That puts it pretty much right in the middle of Division 1. But it is also now in the company of conferences often deemed "low-major".

The top 5 MAC rankings look pretty normal. The MAC has 2 top 100 teams with no bubble teams and three more in the top 140. This is actually the way it usually looks because this is not the relative strength oh the conference. The bottom 6 teams are all ranked over 200 in just about every system with 2 or 3 usually found over 300. By MAC standards this is historically awful. I mean, compared to the normal, high parity MAC, it has just jumped off of a bridge. But when those of us who pay close attention to these things say that the bottom of the MAC is historically awful we don't mean that it is among the worst in the nation there. We mean compared to the way it usually is. Yes, Murray State and Belmont still have even more freebie wins than Ohio and Toledo do.

We finished 5th in the MAC last year and still got a #13 seed (the highest ranked 13 in their overall ranking so it was close to a 12) . One of the few times the MAC got a 14 seed was when Ohio finished ninth in 2010 and won the tournament. But a 9th place team getting a seed that high from a non-high-major conference still indicates strength there and we, of course, still picked up a first round win. We have become accustomed to this. The MAC is usually high parity and of half-way decent quality so it doesn't matter much who wins the tournament. The MAC gets one team and it is a 12 or 13 seed. If you recall I said during non-conference play that this wouldn't be the case. The winner of the conference was likely to put up one of better records in that school's history and it would, in fact, take that kind of record to be in the 12 or 13 seed discussion. That is what is happening. There are just more wins available to be had compared to what we are used to.
Last Edited: 2/15/2022 1:46:54 PM by Victory
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Victory
2/15/2022 3:26 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
I don't have all of the stats to share, but there are a lot of strong teams in what are traditionally 1 bid leagues this year.

With the NCAA's preference for P5 teams, if any of the Murray States of the world were to tumble in their conference tournaments, the chance of the MAC getting two teams is just about nil (and it's pretty much at that point anyways with the home stretch of the regular season upon us).

The WCC could likely send 3 teams this year with Gonzaga, BYU, and San Francisco.

Had the Cats been able to beat LSU or Kentucky, their resume would be a bit more attractive. Belmont, while good, won't be enough to garner an at large.
Ironically, Belmont beating Murray State would probably be bad. Although Belmont still has a regular season game, so maybe 2 wins over Murray is enough to knock them out but I doubt it.

People talking about the bottom of the MAC being bad, check out the OVC. Belmont, Murray and Morehead have not lost to anyone other than those 3 teams... Will be ridiculous for that conference to be a 2-bid league.
This is always the case with the OVC. But conferences don't earn bids. Teams do. If conferences earned bids the MAC would have close to as may bids over the last 20 years as the WCC and MVC. But it doesn't. Individual MAC teams rarely step up and when they have they usually win the tournament. The OVC DID get both Belmont and Murray State in the 2019 tournament in spite of being just this weak at the bottom. The overall record of these teams was just that good like Murray State is so far this year.

We see the MAC being the 11th or 12 rated conference most years although compared to the other conferences rated 10-13 (often the WCC, MVC, CUSA) it is relatively pathetic at getting teams in the at-large bid discussion. This is because parity reigns in the MAC. The bottom of the MAC is relatively better than those conferences most of the time. It often looks more like the bottom of a 7-9 ranked league where we often find the American, MWC, and A10. Keep in mind that the MAC is still 17th or 18th ranked conference in most systems. That puts it pretty much right in the middle of Division 1. But it is also now in the company of conferences often deemed "low-major".

The top 5 MAC rankings look pretty normal. The MAC has 2 top 100 teams with no bubble teams and three more in the top 140. This is actually the way it usually looks because this is not the relative strength oh the conference. The bottom 6 teams are all ranked over 200 in just about every system with 2 or 3 usually found over 300. By MAC standards this is historically awful. I mean, compared to the normal, high parity MAC, it has just jumped off of a bridge. But when those of us who pay close attention to these things say that the bottom of the MAC is historically awful we don't mean that it is among the worst in the nation there. We mean compared to the way it usually is. Yes, Murray State and Belmont still have even more freebie wins than Ohio and Toledo do.

We finished 5th in the MAC last year and still got a #13 seed (the highest ranked 13 in their overall ranking so it was close to a 12) . One of the few times the MAC got a 14 seed was when Ohio finished ninth in 2010 and won the tournament. But a 9th place team getting a seed that high from a non-high-major conference still indicates strength there and we, of course, still picked up a first round win. We have become accustomed to this. The MAC is usually high parity and of half-way decent quality so it doesn't matter much who wins the tournament. The MAC gets one team and it is a 12 or 13 seed. If you recall I said during non-conference play that this wouldn't be the case. The winner of the conference was likely to put up one of better records in that school's history and it would, in fact, take that kind of record to be in the 12 or 13 seed discussion. That is what is happening. There are just more wins available to be had compared to what we are used to.
For comparison sake the women's MAC is usually the 10th rated league this year (7 of 9 systems that I know of, 9th in 1, 8th in 1). I'll direct you to Massey's ratings of the MAC. Look at it if you are not familiar. This is the high parity range of rankings that the MAC usually looks like. The women have done slightly better than the men over the last decade so this ranking distribution looks more like the men's MAC in a slightly up year.

https://masseyratings.com/379388/12526
Last Edited: 2/15/2022 3:26:53 PM by Victory
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