You're probably correct.

But my thought this weekend is that a final pick from a P5 conference gets left out. Say, maybe Michigan?

If I were in charge, I'd add a rule that if you don't finish .500 or better in your conference regular season, you're not eligible for an at-large berth. It's ludicrous to me that Xavier is still in the conversation.

How does allotting a pre-defined number of bids per conference make any sense or seem "fairer" than how it's done now?

Perfect example is ACC this year vs years past. I recall a few years ago the ACC got 8 or 9 teams in with Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt etc. This year they looked poised to only get 3-4 (Duke UNC Notre Dame and maybe Wake or Miami). VaTech went from bubble to in so maybe they get 4 or 5. How do you determine how many they "deserve" though? Do they get 8 bc they've been so good in the past and now you're letting teams like Miami and Syracuse etc in just to hit a number, or should they only get 4 or 5 and make a tip 25 team sit out because gosh just too many from one conference.

What it really boils down to is, is a 18 to 20 win P5 better or worse than a 23-25 win mid? That's a tough question and IMO judging each case individually is absolutely the best option. As each decision gets made, as teams come onto the list of 68, one gets bumped off.

Just because you (and to be fair I do too) disagree with a couple final decisions each year, doesn't mean that's not precisely what the committee is doing.

The MAC hasn't DESERVED a second bid in decades. That isn't the committees fault. Part of it is the dregs of the MAC. Part of it is the parity and competition of the MAC at the top. Part of that is inability to schedule and win non con games for a resume.

But honestly one of the biggest culprits is the fault of nobody and that's simply NCAA D1 expansion. It's added low conferences and added auto qualifiers who have sucked up a couple extra at large bids that could have and did go to the MAC in 80s and 90s.

I like that as well. Obvious that the NET did not really force the large conference members out of their friendly confines. There is an inherent advantage to being the home team and making the noncon season so one-sided in favor of the Major conference schools it just does not give a decent MAC, OVC, MW, etc school the ability to compete on a level playing field having to play away anytime they want to schedule up

With a .500 cut offs that would leave
FL ST at 10 10 as the last ACC team in with 8 eligible and only 4 o\in the top 50 NET scores. One of those is 7th place 11-9 Va Tech with a 27 NET.

Marquette at 11 8 with 6 eligible in Big East

Michigan with at 11 9 with 8 in the BIG, Indiana is below the line but will make it I think

Big `12 only has 4 teams above 500 OK,OK ST and Iowa St at 50 40 and 49 in the NET are all below 500 in conference.

Mountain West has 5 over 500 and their NETs are 25 28 29 nd 50 Oddly enough UT St at a net of 60 but under 500 conf record is a better NET than a ton of P% teams https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/net / I am not sure what the MOuntain West offices told their teams how to schedule but their NET scores put them in a good position.

PAC 12 has 8 teams above 500 but their NET scores go over 70s after the top 3 only 3 are under 60

SEC has 9 teams above 500 but their top 8 are under 58 in the NET.

WCC has top 2 Gonzaga and St Marys at 1 and 19 in the NET

Somehow X and Indiana are still around 40ish in the NET even though Indiana seems to play 5 or 6 home games every years at HOME vs high 270 and above NET ranked teams each year. At least X did the land grant tour with Ia St, Va Tech and Ohio A & M to offset the MAC West and MEAC foes

It will be interesting to see if a team like San Fran at 21 in the NET bounced from the WCC tourney but squarely above BIG, Big 12 ACC and PAC 12 will get in.

IMHO I do not think the NET goes far enough in making P5s play true road games. Purdue in the Convo was something that Matt said he talked to his staff about after he really looked at a road game once he got into the season. He had memories of a loud, raucous Convo when he and his pops were following the mid 80s Ball State teams.

Selection committee has their work cut out for them this year but this whole thing still needs tweaking.