I think it's both. I think the portal is a game changer though and it's going to change the way recruiting is done forever. The big boys no longer need to work as hard on high school recruits. Their efforts will be focused on good mid and low major players who have already proven their worth in the college game. That means good and bad news for mids and low majors. It will be easier to get good high school players but it will be tough to keep them for more than a year or two. Eventually once all the COVID years have been used up the number of spots will return to normal but the new one-and-dones will be mids going to the big boys.

I think the impact will be a trickle down effect.
The top P5s will raid the lower P5s and top G5s. The lower P5s will reach down a level, etc., etc.
The MAC will be raided by the Big East, Atlantic 10 types. We'll dip into the OVC, Big South, etc.

Eventually we'll reach market equilibrium and there will be a steady flow down and out of talent.

I think the teams that will suffer the most churn will be upper level mid majors that can't round up a steady flow of NIL money. Those programs will have a hard time keeping their best players.

I suspect most of what you're detecting is sour grapes.