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BobcatGman
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Posted: 12/6/2010 10:18 AM
  Tim O'Shea's record at the end of his first 3 years was 41 wins and 47 losses.  O'Shea's MAC Record was 26 & 28 after his first 3 years. When a coaches first recruits are seniors and he's not winning, then there's a time to be concerned. but right now,  Coach Groce is trying to build a program and some of you think it should happen over night,  it just doesn't work that way. I like the direction Ohio is heading under Coach Groce, but its a process and we all have to be a little patient.

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Dennis "Gman"   "DON'T  FLINCH"
Flomo-genized
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Posted: 12/6/2010 10:27 AM
BobcatGman wrote:expand_more
  Tim O'Shea's record at the end of his first 3 years was 41 wins and 47 losses.  O'Shea's MAC Record was 26 & 28 after his first 3 years. When a coaches first recruits are seniors and he's not winning, then there's a time to be concerned. but right now,  Coach Groce is trying to build a program and some of you think it should happen over night,  it just doesn't work that way. I like the direction Ohio is heading under Coach Groce, but its a process and we all have to be a little patient.


To be fair, TOS's first three years featured much more difficult OOC schedules than have JG's first three years, and TOS also compiled a better MAC record in that span than JG has in a much weaker conference.  But I'm not arguing that TOS is a better coach than JG.  I'm merely pointing out that for all of the hatred directed at TOS, and all of the blind faith shouldered on JG, the results this far have been far from what anyone would have hoped for.

Yes things take time, but I still think that you can usually see signs of a really strong coach even if he doesn't have all of the pieces in place.  Aside from a week last March (which should rightly buy JG a lot of slack), I just haven't seen that over the totality of JG's tenure here.  For example, one tell tale sign for me is our attrocious record when scoring under 70 points.  If JG was really as strong and tough minded a coach as some of you say, he should be able to put together a team capable of winning a few games on the strength of their defense, even if their offensive output is lacking.  Admittedly, some of that is a result of the pace we are playing, but I find it troubling that the only time JG has been able to win thus far is when we are scoring bunches of points.  That is not a recipe for an elite level mid-major program.
Last Edited: 12/6/2010 10:28:26 AM by Flomo-genized
giacomo
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Posted: 12/6/2010 10:30 AM
Flomo, I agree with your assessment. The MAC is weak. You can see it with teams getting beat by 35-50 points when they play above their head. A good team should win a game against Marshall and Oakland at home. I saw the opener against Delaware and we certainly have enough size and talent to be a good team. I'm not saying this is a great team, but home wins against similatar competetion says to me you are solid. Up to this point we are not.
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 12/6/2010 10:51 AM
Flo:  I give you great credit for you have always been a supporter of Tim O'Shea (out of respect for that I will even properly refer to him), we will however have to disagree on the state of the two programs when each took the helm.  Many would argue and say that Tim's winning % after two years was a dissapointment with the talent that he inherited.  Both have seen transition and movement within the programs and both won MAC titles with kids who left the program premature and in less than admirable circumstance.  However here is my take on why JG has done a better job.

Tim came in with a team with Brandon Hunter (4th all time in scoring, 2,000+ points, schools all-time rebounding leader, all-time FT's attempted) Steve Esterkamp (12 all-time in scoring with 1,400+ points) and a good cast of roll players, John came to town with KVK and a cast of others.  I am not sure about non-league schedules being tougher, our good wins were against BAD "NAME" teams!  Who did Groce inherit?  Coach O'Shea took at team that went 12-4 in MAC play and proceeded to go 10-6....In fact Larry Hunter coached 6 teams that had as good as or better MAC records than Tim's best MAC record.  Groce won a MAC Tournament Title in his second season it took Tim four seasons.
Flomo-genized
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Posted: 12/6/2010 11:02 AM
Don't get me wrong, I agree that TOS underachieved his first few years, and that he inherited more talent than JG did.  But that is all beside the point.  The point is that almost everyone hoped that JG would be able to elevate the program beyond the point that TOS had settled in at, but instead we have actually gotten worse on a winning percentage basis under JG.  Again, I completely admit that the cupboard wasn't loaded when JG took over, but I do think that our talent has been better than a cumulative 14-18 MAC record under JG, given the depths the conference has fallen to the past couple years.  I also think that JG would have better than a 7-21 road record if he were really as good an in-game coach as some here believe.  Finally, I agree with giacomo that we shouldn't be losing at home to Marshall, getting worked as badly as we were by Oakland at home, or losing by nearly 60 points on a neutral court to Kansas.  All of those are signs of extremely mediocre bench coaching to me, inexperience or not.

Edit: Look, I was as big a Groce supporter as anyone when he took over.  Hell, I was the first to throw his name out for the job on here.  And I had high hopes for him after an impressive early road win at Austin Peay.  But aside from one week last March, overall this program has not developed the way I believed it would under Groce's stewardship.  He has had too much talent to finish last in the MAC East two consecutive years.
Last Edited: 12/6/2010 11:08:40 AM by Flomo-genized
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 12/6/2010 11:15 AM
I think some people are hung up on Oakland's name or lack there of, that was a pretty good ballclub with one of the top 5 players we will see this year, and they were a horrible match-up for us due to their size and post presence.

After two years, I will give you the winning % for Tim, however John has a trophy and a ring in two years.  Which would you rather have?

And I ask this as an honest question, where is all of this talent? We have lacked a quality big man..... I simply do not see it all of this talent?  I do see young improving talent that will be o.k.! AB was a talent with at times a $.10 head or I would compare him to a LaDrell Whitehead, DJ is going to go down as one of the great all time Cats, but he was a freshmen this year, and needs help in carrying the scoring load this season, as a general rule of thumb you do not want your PG leading your team in points.
Last Edited: 12/6/2010 11:19:01 AM by John C. Wanamaker
Flomo-genized
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Posted: 12/6/2010 11:20 AM
John C. Wanamaker wrote:expand_more
I think some people are hung up on Oakland's name or lack there of, that was a pretty good ballclub with one of the top 5 players we will see this year, and they were a horrible match-up for us due to their size and post presence.


I'm not caught up on Oakland's name.  I know they are good, and predicted a loss in that game.  I just never would have guessed we'd be down by ~15 points most of the second half, especially not with Benson on the bench most of the game.  In short, the loss didn't surprise me so much as the fact we were never really in the game.  That shouldn't have been the case.

John C. Wanamaker wrote:expand_more
After two years, I will give you the winning % for Tim, however John has a trophy and a ring in two years.  Which would you rather have?


I totally agree there.  But I'm more focused at this point on where the program is headed for the next few years.  I am concerned because last March increasingly looks like the abberation, in which case I'm not sure that JG will be the one to elevate this program to the heights we were expecting.

Just to be clear, though, I do think that we will improve over the next two years, and still hold out hope that JG will eventually get us where we hope to go.  All I'm saying is that the overall results to date have, thus far, been disappointing on the whole, and that JG needs to improve himself to get us where I think (and hope) he can.
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 12/6/2010 11:29 AM
Good discussion......Have faith, the job will get done!  It may not be overnight but it will be sooner rather than later.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 12/6/2010 12:30 PM
I agree about the waiting and trusting part. Groce has us in the right recruiting circles, has pushed out the recruiting horizon like we haven't seen before and appears to be trying to build in discipline and accountability. I also don't think you can discount the impact of Coleman leaving this team and that's something I don't think you can leave  entirely at Groce's feet.

However, I am very worried about the lack of size on the roster. I've always felt that to win consistently (and on the road) you need a way to get easy baskets and not give them up. For better or worse, I look at 2-point FG percentage. I think you need big guys to help make this happen. Keely and Baltic are undersized and don't seem to be able to help at the rim defensively. Unless Jon Smith or Ethan Jacobs pan out, there's no one else on the horizon.

This season, Ohio is allowing 54.1% 2-point FG percentage (310th in the country) and hitting just 44.4% (249th in the country) of its 2-pointers. This may improve in MAC play but against the better MAC and non-con foes this is an issue.

In 2009-10, Ohio was better defensively on 2's at 47.0% (133rd in the country) possibly due to KVK walling up at the rim? They weren't very good offensively on 2's at 46.4% (223rd in the country). KVK was not a good 2-point shooter (he took the most 2's on the team at 241 but hit just 46.5%). However, Ohio compensated on offense by not turning the ball over and shooting the 3 well.

In 2008-09, Ohio again struggled defensivelyon 2's at 50.6% (271st in the country) and offensively at 47.2% (199th in the country).

I think to get to be a MAC regular season title contender and perform better against good non-con foes we're going to need some big men. I know we can't get UNC big guys, I'm just talking about decent MAC big men.
Bobcat Love
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Posted: 12/6/2010 12:56 PM
Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
However, I am very worried about the lack of size on the roster.


Agree Ted. This is my biggest source of consternation right now as well. Common denominator across Oakland, Kansas, and Marshall....Long, athletic frontcourts with better than average backcourts.

Keely is getting pushed around by bigger guys and isn't as athletic as most of his matchups. Baltic is 6'7" trying to play like he's 7'1". Devaughn is doing most of his work around the perimeter now. The freshman are all glorfied 2's and 3's.

Next year we have mostly guards joining the horizon in Taylor, Offutt, and Mitchell...while Gourd (6'7") and Smith (6'5") won't match up to the bigs like we saw with Oakland, Marshall, and Kansas.

You can't tell me Alex Kellogg would have alleviated all of our frontcourt doubts if he was around. Obviously Coleman and Bassett weren't going to fill the needs either. So that leaves Ethan Jacobs, who isn't far enough along to even get off the bench in garbage time.

This lack of size and depth in the frontcourt is a MAJOR issue and one that's going to plague us for a long time unless we have a magic recruit in our back pocket via the HS or JC route that I haven't heard about. In reality, we probably need 2 at this point based on the current situation.

I've never been a fan of the Jay Wright "throw 4 guards out there and see what happens" scenario...especially b/c we aren't going to pull Villanova talent 9 times out of 10.
Last Edited: 12/6/2010 12:57:07 PM by Bobcat Love
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 12/6/2010 1:01 PM
John C. Wanamaker wrote:expand_more
JG does everything better than Timmy, and let's face it that cupboard was pretty darn thin when Timmy left.  JG does not make excuses, he holds his players accountable and he sincerely wants to win, the guy has fire in his belly on the sideline, and he will rip some arse if needed.  I am soooo freaking happy I don't have to listen to "that's life on the road".  This team plays hard, plays with an up tempo, and can be fun to watch.


I'm not so sure Ohio is playing an up-tempo game under Groce. I know he's talked about it but I can't say I've seen too much of that style this year. I would love to see this team get the ball and run, led by DJ with our athletic wings/forwards filling in the lanes. And the few times Ohio has attempted a fullcourt press the result has been easy layups at the other end.
Last Edited: 12/6/2010 1:07:25 PM by bobcatsquared
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 12/6/2010 1:11 PM
Ohio's PPG say we are playing a more uptempo game.  Last year OHIO was 52nd in the NATION in scoring offense at 74.2.....Tim's best year was a 102nd place ranking at 71.2 in MAC year of 05 and until the Kansas game we were in the top 50 this year, and I expect to get back that way once MAC play begins.
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Posted: 12/6/2010 1:15 PM
Perhaps, JCW, but by uptempo I think of a team fast-breaking off of turnovers, rebounds and even made baskets and then pressing off their own baskets. I haven't seen much of this and when I have (the pressing part) the results haven't been too favorable.
anorris
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Posted: 12/6/2010 1:52 PM
An even better indicator of tempo would be our number of offensive possessions, since it takes away the factor of making vs. missing field goals that can skew PPG.

Last season, we averaged 70.3 possessions/40 minutes, which rated 93rd, or well into the top 1/3 of the country.
In 2008-2009, Groce's first year, the average was 66.7 -- 222nd.
In 2007-2008, O'Shea's final year, the average was 65.8 -- 271st.

For comparison, this season to date we're averaging 73.7 this year -- ranked 60th, but that isn't a good indicator in comparison to the full years, as we've played a small number of games, and haven't gotten into the conference were some of the teams (Miami especially) like to slog it out and use the clock.

By way of comparison, Miami last season averaged 62.1 possessions (338 of 347!) last season, and that was one of the faster teams Charlie has had in a while.

We aren't VMI, but I would refer to it as "up-tempo," and certainly on the move in that direction.
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Posted: 12/6/2010 2:12 PM
Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
However, I am very worried about the lack of size on the roster.


I agree as well.  Some of this is likely a system preference, though.  We have targeted high post bigs that can run the floor, and while I don't mean to suggest that those type of guys can never bang down low on defense, in general they aren't going to be as physical in the paint and on the defensive glass (especially not the ones we're going to be getting at our level). 
giacomo
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Posted: 12/6/2010 2:54 PM
The realities of the MAC is that when you play above your head, you usually don't match up in the post and at the point. For now, we have DJ Cooper and he can match up with anyone, but until we get better in the post, that will be our weakness. Oakland is a nice team, but if we aspire to become a solid program, we have to win that game at home. Same with Marshall. We should play teams like Kansas and every now and then they have a down year and we win (NC way back when). I guess when you think about it, what difference does it make if you lose by 50 or by 1? We will be totally defined by what we do in the MAC. I agree with Flomo that we shouldn't be finishing last.
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Posted: 12/6/2010 3:42 PM
Flomo-genized wrote:expand_more
To be fair, TOS's first three years featured much more difficult OOC schedules than have JG's first three years, and TOS also compiled a better MAC record in that span than JG has in a much weaker conference.


That's simply not true.  O'Shea's second season was the massively-disappointing 02-03 campaign in which they were picked to win the MAC and finished with the 11th seed.  The next season, they lost 20 games and finished 10th in the conference. Heck, in his first season, he inherited a boatload of talent and managed to finish 6th and lose to Central Michigan at home in the MAC tournament.

O'Shea's MAC records by season: 11-7, 8-10, 7-11, 11-7, 10-8, 9-7, 9-7.  Even with NBA and high European-league talents, he was never more than just above .500.

But Groce has to have a winning record this year.  Has to.  If he can't do it this year, he might not ever be able to.
Flomo-genized
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Posted: 12/6/2010 4:52 PM

Bobcat Dragon wrote:expand_more
To be fair, TOS's first three years featured much more difficult OOC schedules than have JG's first three years, and TOS also compiled a better MAC record in that span than JG has in a much weaker conference.


That's simply not true.  O'Shea's second season was the massively-disappointing 02-03 campaign in which they were picked to win the MAC and finished with the 11th seed.  The next season, they lost 20 games and finished 10th in the conference. Heck, in his first season, he inherited a boatload of talent and managed to finish 6th and lose to Central Michigan at home in the MAC tournament.

O'Shea's MAC records by season: 11-7, 8-10, 7-11, 11-7, 10-8, 9-7, 9-7.  Even with NBA and high European-league talents, he was never more than just above .500.

But Groce has to have a winning record this year.  Has to.  If he can't do it this year, he might not ever be able to.


What wasn't true?  Again, I'm not arguing that TOS met initial expectations (he didn't), or that JG inherited comparable talent (he didn't).  Instead, I simply said was that TOS faced much more difficult OOC schedules than has JG, and that TOS had a better MAC record during his first three seasons than JG has to date.  Both are true statements.

For example, in 2001-02, TOS's first year, we played games at Wisconsin, Arizona State, and Virginia, along with a home game against WVU.  Meanwhile, Ken Pomeroy ranked our 2002-03 non-conference schedule the 27th most difficult in the nation, with games at Providence (when they were pretty good), DePaul (ditto), Wisconsin, and Kentucky (in Cinci), along with a home game versus UVa.    In 2003-04 we ratched down the schedule, but still had DePaul at home and Wisconsin in Cleveland. 

JG hasn't had to play a schedule anywhere near that tough.  In fact, we've only had four comparable games in three years total under JG (Xavier and Louisville in 08-09, Pittsburgh last year, and Kansas this year), and were blown out by 22+ points each time.

Meanwhile, in terms of MAC records, as you noted TOS was 2 games over .500 his first two years, albeit in disappointing fashion.  Meanwhile, JG is 14-18, so again, what I said was accurate.  Even if you add in TOS's third (and worst) MAC season, he still is ahead of JG at this stage (26-28 being slightly better than 14-18).  And that is before we factor in how much better the MAC was during TOS's early career than it has been the last couple years. 

On a related note, I thought it was amazing given all the talk of "life on the road" that we actually went 12-18 on the road during TOS's first two years, compared to 7-21 during Groce's first two seasons.

Again, none of this is to argue that TOS was better than JG.  The point is just that as much as some like to dump on TOS around here, JG's actual results to date haven't, on the whole, elevated the program.

crackerbaby00
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Posted: 12/6/2010 5:25 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
JG does everything better than Timmy, and let's face it that cupboard was pretty darn thin when Timmy left.  JG does not make excuses, he holds his players accountable and he sincerely wants to win, the guy has fire in his belly on the sideline, and he will rip some arse if needed.  I am soooo freaking happy I don't have to listen to "that's life on the road".  This team plays hard, plays with an up tempo, and can be fun to watch.


I'm not so sure Ohio is playing an up-tempo game under Groce. I know he's talked about it but I can't say I've seen too much of that style this year. I would love to see this team get the ball and run, led by DJ with our athletic wings/forwards filling in the lanes. And the few times Ohio has attempted a fullcourt press the result has been easy layups at the other end.




I agree. I know that our number show that we have a lot of possesions, but I think that has a lot to do with the fact that we have been taking shots early in the shot clock in half court sets, not that we have been getting out and running. Also, we have done a decent job on the offensive glass, which usually lead to quick second shots.

The major issue that I see is that we are not very good on the defensive glass. We give up a lot of offensive rebounds and even on plays that we grab a defensive rebound, it is usually after the ball has been knocked around a lot.  Tough to get to the other side of the court before the other team when it takes a few extra seconds to secure the rebounds we are able to grab.
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Posted: 12/6/2010 11:13 PM
We need Patrick Flomo.  If we had a big man who defended at the rim (swatization) and got a reasonable number of boards, it would solve a lot of problems.  Our offense would probably look a lot better also.

Big if, though.
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Posted: 12/7/2010 12:03 AM
Probably too deep for a casual fan board, but as I watch OHIO Hoops from a spectators perspective I find myself thinking these principles are playing themselves out.  I've found that most new leaders (and by new I define someone like JG who's running his own show for the first time after being a long term assistant) have to work through a maturation process in regards to developing their organizations in regards to people.  Whether it relates to a business, a nonprofit ,or a sports team--I see it taking place when people are involved.

Great Leaders are able to:
1.  Recruit great talent that match the organizations values
2.  Engage and develop people and build strong relationships
3.  Build cohesive teams that work well together.

When I train new leaders I usually don't make a determination whether a leader has "IT" in regards to team building until after year #3 as it usually takes this long to establish core values, find the right system, find the right co-leaders, find their right management style and find the right people who fit the system.

From an outsiders perspective I have little doubt JG will figure this out, but as with most new leaders, he's working through the process.  It "appears" he's got part of Step #1 figured out.  I think he's bringing in quality talent.  It's apparent he's good at camps, he's good in the recruits living rooms, he's good on the phone, he looks the part on the sideline and he talks the part on the mic.  Bottom line, he's got charisma and simply at face value looks like better stock than most of the MAC coaches.  Where the process will need to improve for him to become the next level coach is figuring out the second half of Step #1, along with Steps #2 & #3.  I've met lots of leaders who interviewed well and looked the part, yet couldn't produce consistent results initially (or ever) 

It appears many of last years recruits had good talent, but didn't match JG core values off the court in what they did with their spare time.  Hence, many are gone.  Step #2, buidling strong relationships also appears to be a work in process as our turnover rate is way too high if/when relationship are strong.  And it's not like these guys left for greener pastures.  In fact, most left and took a step backwards & down. 

And finally, great leaders are able to mesh teams to create a cohesive unit wherein each part compliments one another (kind of the "take one for the team" mentality).  Obviously we spent nearly all of last year and the first quarter of this season trying to get everyone on the same page.  It takes a special leader to create an atmosphere where you take C level talent and turn it into B teams and B level talent turns into A teams.  As I watched the Patriots tonight (and I'm not a fan) I'm impressed that despite the names on the jerseys changing at record pace these past couple years, they just churn out solid seasons (and yes, it doesn't hurt to have Brady at QB through it all, I know).  Sticking with the Patriots illustration, their locker room is strong and you just don't count them out.  I think everyone on that team believes in their coach, the system, and they know what's expected to be a Patriot.  You don't have to be a fan to see that guys like Bill have figured it out over the years.

All this said, as a MAC school we're going to get lots of first time head coaches.  And first time head coaches are here for a reason--to learn how to bring in quality athletes and develop them into quality teams.  If that were easy, a guy like JG would probably skip this portion of the process and go straight to the ACC.  However any leader will tell you that figuring out how to build winning organizations takes trial and error.  I'm hoping we're seeing this process go through its cycle with JG.  And the sad part is, once the light bulb goes off in a leaders head that he/she has it figured out--they get the itch to take their talents to a larger stage thus using you as their leadership training laboratory.
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Posted: 12/7/2010 12:17 AM
Flomo-genized wrote:expand_more

To be fair, TOS's first three years featured much more difficult OOC schedules than have JG's first three years, and TOS also compiled a better MAC record in that span than JG has in a much weaker conference.


That's simply not true.  O'Shea's second season was the massively-disappointing 02-03 campaign in which they were picked to win the MAC and finished with the 11th seed.  The next season, they lost 20 games and finished 10th in the conference. Heck, in his first season, he inherited a boatload of talent and managed to finish 6th and lose to Central Michigan at home in the MAC tournament.

O'Shea's MAC records by season: 11-7, 8-10, 7-11, 11-7, 10-8, 9-7, 9-7.  Even with NBA and high European-league talents, he was never more than just above .500.

But Groce has to have a winning record this year.  Has to.  If he can't do it this year, he might not ever be able to.


What wasn't true?  Again, I'm not arguing that TOS met initial expectations (he didn't), or that JG inherited comparable talent (he didn't).  Instead, I simply said was that TOS faced much more difficult OOC schedules than has JG, and that TOS had a better MAC record during his first three seasons than JG has to date.  Both are true statements.


Groce has only coached two MAC seasons.  He needs only to go 9-7 this year to eclipse the .481 mark TOS put up his first three seasons, and I think we can agree TOS came into a much better situation.

Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 12/7/2010 1:14 AM
Interesting thinking, CGeorge.

Let me take another part of the picture you paint.  I think that football and basketball have now good depth but a lack of stars.  We need more guys who are quite dominating.  If each sport can sprinkle in a few of those, it could get real fun.
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Posted: 12/7/2010 9:33 AM
Great points about the realities of a first time coach, manager and leader, Mr. Chicken!
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Posted: 12/7/2010 9:38 AM
Great stuff Chicken George.  You stated much better than I where it is that Groce really needs to improve, if he's ever going to reach his coaching potential. 
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