Ohio can do no lower than a #7 seed having passed BG and CMU tonight with the big win. If Buffalo wins out and Ohio loses its final game, the two schools split head to head, Buffalo would have 5 East Division wins to Ohio's 4 and win the tiebreaker. To pick up that 3 seed you are talking about, Ohio would have to win against Miami and have WMU lose out. More realistically, Ohio wins and finishes with a 4 seed for a bye pitting Ohio against Akron in the quarterfinals. If Ohio can pick up that 3 seed over WMU and Akron that would probably Ohio vs. CMU in the quarters a pretty favorable matchup.

As Wes noted, we've clinched at least the 7th seed.  I believe that even with a loss to Miami, we will clinch the 6th seed if either Akron loses to Kent OR Buffalo loses one of its final two games (vs. Miami, @BGSU).  If both of those occur, then we'll finish no worse than 5th.

We will finish third if either of the following scenarios occur (there may be more, these are just off the top of my head): (i) WMU beats BSU tomorrow night and CMU on Saturday, Buffalo beats Miami tomorrow, and we win in Oxford on Friday or (ii) WMU loses out (vs. BSU and @ CMU), Buffalo beats Miami, and we win in Oxford.

If Miami beats Buffalo tomorrow, then I believe the best we can finish is 4th.

I'd say there is actually a fairly decent chance of the first scenario playing out for the 3 seed.  I suspect that WMU will be favored over both Ball State and CMU, and that Buffalo will be favored at home over Miami.  If all three of those play out as expected, then it just comes down to beating Miami on Friday.  Given the way we are playing, and the short turnaround Miami will have, and I think a win in Oxford is quite possible.

Not that it probably changes much, but Ohio has 5 wins now within East division (Akron twice, Buffalo, Kent, BG).

However, I'm not sure seeding matters much this year in the MAC.  It's probably going to just come down to whoever gets hot for three games, which OU seems to be getting warmed up.  I think more teams' fans will want to avoid playing the Bobcats right now.  

My biggest concern on seeding would be what time we play Thursday for work reasons (Afternoon or Evening session), but it's fortunately trending to evening session because we'll very likely be in the 3rd-6th seed with an long shot of dropping to a 7th seed...I think dropping to a 7th seed would require Akron to beat Kent AND Buffalo to win out (assuming they take the tiebreaker on winning percentage versus same teams, which I don't know if they would) AND Ohio to lose to Miami AND Ball State winning one of their last two games.

Anyway, I'm going to pencil Ohio in for the late session next Thursday.

Correct, that is a third scenario for the 3rd seed.  If BSU loses tonight to WMU and on Saturday at home to NIU, then we could still finish 3rd if Miami loses to us and Buffalo, even with a CMU win over WMU.  All in all, though, I'd say that is perhaps the least likely scenario.

Other random thoughts on seeding:  I believe that the only way we don't finish at least 5th is if Akron beats Kent, we lose to Miami, and BSU beats either NIU or WMU.  In that scenario, we'd finish behind Kent, WMU, Miami, BSU, and Akron.  We'd finish 6th if Buffalo loses one of its last two, or 7th if Buffalo wins out to tie us at 9-7 (they'd win on about the 5th tie-breaker by having beaten Miami, while we'd have been swept in this scenario).  However, if Kent beats Akron, then I believe we'll be at least 5th, regardless of what happens to Buffalo.

The only ways that I can see us finishing 4th are: (i) we beat Miami, Miami beats Buffalo, and WMU loses out, (ii) we beat Miami, Miami beats Buffalo, and WMU wins out, or (iii) we lose to Miami, Akron loses to Kent, and BSU loses out.  Are there are other scenarios in which we finish 4th?

All in all, considering that Miami is an 8.5 point underdog tonight at Buffalo, and WMU a 4 point favorite over BSU in Kalamazoo, I think the most likely scenarios are that we finish either 3rd or 5th.

I'd say that the 3 seed is probably the best option.  That would likely give us a QF game against Akron or Buffalo, and a SF game against WMU or BSU, while putting Kent, Miami, and the WMU/BSU loser on the other side of the bracket. 

However, I must admit I'm a little bit torn on the desireability of a bye this year.  We are so hot that the thought of taking almost a full week off before the tournament (Friday to Thursday) worries me.  On the other hand, with the first round games played on Tuesday night this year, the bye is a bigger advantage than in years past, like last year when there were 3 days between the first round and quarterfinals.

Division wins are not a part of the tiebreaker. I actually think if WMU wins out and gets the 2 seed, it could be advantagous for some of our head-to-head tiebreakers (Akron, Ball State) Also, Miami has an identical winning percentage as us vs. Kent, Western, and Ball State. If they lose to Buffalo tonight, we would both be .500 against the Bulls. So it would likely come down to Akron, and we would win that percentage.

 

TIE-BREAKER PROCEDURE

 

A.  Head-to-head competition

 

B.  Winning percentage vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom, regardless of division, vs. common opponents regardless of the number of times played)

 

C.  Coin flip

Here's the link to the new tie-breaker procedures: http://mac-sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=9400&...

No matter what our draw is, it can't be more difficult than last year's tourney run.

Winning @ Ball State, who had beaten us in Athens already.

Winning against 13-3 MAC Champs, Kent State

Winning against 9-7 in the MAC, Miami

Winning against 12-4 in the MAC, Akron

We were a combined 1-6 against those teams last year, heading into the tournament.

A win over Miami will likely result in a bye, but doesn't guarantee one.  Even if we beat Miami, if Miami beats Buffalo, and WMU beats Ball State but loses to CMU, while BSU beats NIU, then we would finish 5th.  In that scenario, BSU would be 2nd (it would win the intra-divisional record tie-breaker with WMU), Miami would be 3rd, and WMU would beat us out for 4th by virtue of their head-to-head win.  However, if Buffalo beats Miami tonight, then I believe (but haven't confirmed) that we will clinch a bye with a win in Oxford.

Meanwhile, we have clinched at least the 7th seed, so worst case scenario is that we will be playing at home.  We will be guaranteed no worse than 6th even with a loss in Oxford should either of the following occur: (i) Buffalo loses one of its two remaining games, OR (ii) Akron loses at Kent.  Should both of those occur, then I believe we will finish no worse than 5th even with a loss to Miami.

STO is wrong.  If WMU wins out, we will secure a bye by beating Miami.  In that scenario, at most only Kent, WMU, and Miami would finish with fewer losses than us, while only Ball State and Akron could tie us with 6 losses each.  However, considering that we swept both of them, we'd win any tie-breaker against either, placing us 4th overall.  It is more accurate to say that we need WMU to either win out or lose out, as a WMU split combined with a BSU win over NIU and Miami win over Buffalo would put us 5th, even with a win in Oxford.

Well, one game to go and it looks like we're still alive for the 3 seed. Just a week ago we were hoping to get a home game.