So, I think we're all enjoying the DJ Cooper controversy. It's fun to talk about our greatest and worst player. I was tooling around on bobcatupdate.com (you should really bookmark it) and started looking at individual player stats. They have an archive of every single player's every single play from every single game this season (at least), so if you want to satisfy some curiosity about what someone specifically did at a specific point in the game, you can do that.

That was really wordy. Sorry.

If you're into advanced stats at all, you know individual plus/minus has its flaws and its usefulness is up to debate. I'll present these numbers anyway. I've removed the Marietta game. These are per game figures.

As a team, Ohio is +7.5
DJ Cooper: On the floor, Ohio is +7.6. Off the floor, Ohio is -0.1. Per minute: +0.238
Ivo Baltic: On the floor, +5.25. Off the floor, +2.25. Per minute: +0.191.
TJ Hall: On the floor, -0.4. Off the floor, +8. Per minute: -0.037
Ricardo Johnson: On the floor, +3.45. Off the floor, +4.15. Per minute: +0.224
Reggie Keely: On the floor, +6.6. Off the floor, +0.9.. Per minute: +0.304
Nick Kellogg: On the floor, +3.85. Off the floor, +3.75.  Per minute: +0.144
Walter Offutt: On the floor, +7.65. Off the floor, -0.05. Per minute: +0.273.
Jon Smith: On the floor, +3.15. Off the floor, +4.35. Per minute: +0.171
Stevie Taylor: On the floor, -0.2 Off the floor, +7.8 Per minute: -0.015

So, a couple conclusions:
1. Reggie isn't getting enough credit.
2. DJ is clearly having a positive effect. Walt has been huge for us, too.
3. Stevie needs to play better to see more minutes.

Should I run conference-only numbers?

(sighs)



Five-man plus/minus can't be found at the collegiate level. If it could be, I'd be all over it.

No, I posted that their value was up for debate. There's a difference. There are people that really like plus/minus. I'm not sure what I think about the statistic myself, but I thought it was worth sharing. I find Ric's number to be pretty meaningful. You're the one who decided to say it was meaningless, obliquely tell me you don't want me sitting near you, then edit it. How about you do something other than criticize everyone else?

You're a regular Good Samaritan. Yes, you didn't directly say anything, but I've gotten quite used to your passive-aggressiveness. And what "antics" are you even referring to? I yelled at Randy Davis once and the referees zero times. Are my "antics" "standing and clapping"? Yelling "good job showing hard, Reg!" or "Good play, Ric!"? I'm the one getting on the refs too much? Please. People in those seats cry at every call that goes against us. Maybe "the people around you" need to do a better job figuring out who is yelling at the refs constantly, because it isn't me. The library is at the top of the hill, not the corner of Richland and Shafer.

+1
Thanks for posting these.  

If you're getting flack for being too loud in your section, then I'm sure Ross and I are regularly there as well in the areas we sit in.  This thought leads me back to the idea for the "Old Zone" that's been discussed.

I think over a long haul, the  +/ - argument is a strong one for conversation about an individual's affect on the game.  To some degree, I think it points out what you already know if you watch a team on a regular basis, though I will say I'm a little surprised that Ric's number isn't higher on, versus off the floor.  Maybe it would be different in conference only.  Like your original comments, I am surprised about Reggie's number too.  I guess I don't give him enough credit because I feel like he sometimes doesn't play as big as his stature.

I remember posting several links to sevearl stats and discussed +/- using the post on the stats from the Butler board. IIRC you stated at the time +/- was useless. Nice to see you have revisited the subject.

It is ironic this appears here as I was sitting at the local diner eating and reading the following regarding the Ohio game in The Star Press

The Ball State starting five of Bond, Tyler Koch, Jarrod Jones, Tyrae Robinson and Randy Davis played only 8:49 together Saturday. The starting five outscored the Bobcats 13-11 over that stretch. Foul trouble for Koch factored into their playing so few minutes together. Koch logged only 16 minutes before he fouled out with 2:41 left in the game.

Only Robinson out of the five starters finished with a positive plus-minus. The Cardinals outscored the Bobcats by three points in his 25 minutes of action. Jones notched the next best at minus-three, Bond followed at minus-four, and Davis and Koch each finished at minus-five.

The Ball State reserves totaled single-digit points for the second consecutive game. The reserves scored only four points against Akron and followed with seven against Ohio.

Freshman forward Aaron Adeoye scored four of those seven points. Adeoye totaled four points, four rebounds and two blocks in a season-high 23 minutes. He played single-digit minutes in each of the previous five conference games. The Cardinals outscored the Bobcats 32-26 in his 23 minutes as his plus-six topped all Ball State players.

Tom St Meyer is new to the college game but is doing all he can to analyze the game to keep up with a pretty sophisticated fanbase following basketball here. He really has become a student of the game in order to do his job.

I do not think it has inherent value as there are so many variables. On a game by game basis it may have greater weight but if you really think about a season it is a general trend that has numbers which can be skewed. IF we have starters who are playing and build a substantial lead and put in the next team to get them some run in big blowouts there is a problem. THe next team or individual that gets in is still facing a foe that has all starters in trying desperately to get back in.....not saying that refs around the country let teams back in to some degree or the mix of players on the floor may not be on the same page ....but there is a difference and affects the way those numbers appear. I wish we could reconstruct that old board as it would be fun to ressurrect the reasons you used against using this number now that youhave decided to take another look...

In any case I am with you in looking at it but I do take it with a grain of salt knowing there are much better metrics regarding individuals than straight +/- provided by guys like Ken Pom.

But all metrics in basketball (save ft%) are affected by who you are playing with plus many other factors. 

I remember an argument back when we had Leon Williams and Jerome Tillman about why we had so few assists. Part of that answer is that they don't give assists for free throws.  I coach a 7th grade team and my wife does the stats for us.  I have her keep track of the normal stats (pts, reb, asst, steals, etc.) but I also have her note positive plays that don't make a normal boxscore.  Passes that lead to good shots or free throws are counted. Knocking a ball out of bounds defending an oddman break is counted as a positive play.  The kids really enjoy seeing how these numbers come out and it makes for an excellent teaching tool.

Come on JSF, crunch the numbers.

That is pretty cool OV.

I like the approach. I remember when Tommy left his jr High team to play Summer ball he had a 6'3 6th grader in the post. Never seen one before that ....we spent hours at the Y teaching how to make post passes and how to get the ball around the defender to spin up to the post player and reading the post defender. I had guys like Petey Jackson and similar assist leaders who understood post passing teach him. ONce he got it down he was golden with those passes.

WHen he got to Ohio there was the aforementioned problem with passes to the post which he enjoyed doing anyway as the inside out usually loosened up the defender on him on the wing or in the corner.... At one moment I remember being at COurtside and talking over beers with JT who was talking about getting the ball "where I need it" ..TOmmy said " i am reading the defense for you and giving it to you where you need it, just turn and shoot" .  Then he added......"buyt y'all gotta finish, I am tired of you blowing the assist." I am pretty sure he would love it if there was a stat like yours in place. It was at that moment I realized all those guys  who worked with him at the Y had really left him with some pretty good knowledge.

Wonder how many coaches actually teach the post pass and correct players who are just lobbing it in. Anyone remember those long skip passes Bubba used to make down low to Leon? That is an art, reading the defense for the post is art elevated.

Your players will go far withthe lessons you are imparting. Great stuff.

If you watch Reg Keeley a bit I think that you'll see that he makes some key plays--a follow up basket or mid-range jumper here, nice defense or a rebound there.  Nice to see that the numbers appear to bear out his effectiveness.


While JSF seems to have presented some authentic, well-researched numbers, I also apprecaite stuff that's totally made up but sounds good or is fun.

Love these numbers, but don't know enough to draw legit conclusions.  Jeff, can anything be read into on court/off court differentiation (Cooper and Offutt clearly have distinct differences).  Would have anticipated Baltic having more of a spread.  Is that a result of strong sub coming in?  Kellogg at same level either on or off.  What would you conclude…if anything.   Straight numbers would say Hall and Johnson should not be on the court – which is not the case, so I appreciate the “margin” is misleading.  Can you expand just a bit - Realize it is conjecture to a degree.  Thanks.

Ken Pomeroy lays put why +/- and even adjusted +/- are poor tools for college basketball analysis: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/a_treatise_on_plus_minus/