Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Let's talk Bracketbuster
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shabamon
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Posted: 1/24/2013 2:40 PM
buffalobobcatfan wrote:expand_more
Honestly, with Ohio's name recognition based on their tourney performance last year combined with a win on Saturday, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a much better opponent than what our RPI would indicate.

Someone on the Zips board made a point that ESPN likes tv matchups that can get good ratings and thinks Ohio will get a much better matchup than what we actually deserve.


That goes entirely against the intended purpose of the Bracketbuster, but if it gets us a good RPI opponent on TV, I'll selfishly take it.
Tyler
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Posted: 1/24/2013 2:42 PM
buffalobobcatfan wrote:expand_more
Honestly, with Ohio's name recognition based on their tourney performance last year combined with a win on Saturday, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a much better opponent than what our RPI would indicate.

Someone on the Zips board made a point that ESPN likes tv matchups that can get good ratings and thinks Ohio will get a much better matchup than what we actually deserve.


Which would be nice considering last year we had a much worse matchup than we should have received.
OUVan
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Posted: 1/24/2013 4:58 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
That goes entirely against the intended purpose of the Bracketbuster, but if it gets us a good RPI opponent on TV, I'll selfishly take it.


There's a difference between intended purpose and stated purpose.  It's always been about ratings.
The Optimist
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Posted: 1/24/2013 5:21 PM
buffalobobcatfan wrote:expand_more
Honestly, with Ohio's name recognition based on their tourney performance last year combined with a win on Saturday, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a much better opponent than what our RPI would indicate.

Someone on the Zips board made a point that ESPN likes tv matchups that can get good ratings and thinks Ohio will get a much better matchup than what we actually deserve.

I agree.  This is where the hype around returning from a Sweet 16 helps us out.
ohio9704
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Posted: 1/24/2013 9:30 PM
Richmond (A team we beat by 25) beats #19 VCU tonight. This should help out our SOS a bit and bump the RPI a little bit.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 1/24/2013 11:56 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more

Loses to UMass, Oklahoma, Memphis and Robert Morris with a win over WMU we almost let get away.
 

I think we're capable of winning on the road, but so far we have looked like a completely different team on the road. 



My completely scientific, data-driven, wild ass guess is that if the Oklahoma and UMass games had been in Athens we would have won.  The matchups at Memphis seemed not good for us; and RMU has our number for some unknown reason.  It's kind of like Ohio-Toledo in football.  I think the last time the Bobcats won I was a student!
Last Edited: 1/24/2013 11:57:31 PM by OhioCatFan
OUVan
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Posted: 1/25/2013 5:35 PM
We are up to #8 of the road teams.   #8 on the home side is Northern Iowa.
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Posted: 1/26/2013 12:07 AM
I believe we're up to #4 in the ESPN BPI rankings as far as the road teams go...and I feel like this is the best indicator as far as who they think are going to grab the best ratings. 
mf279801
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Posted: 1/26/2013 11:12 AM
Which only reinforces today's message: GO BOBCATS! Pluck the Flashes!
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 1/26/2013 11:27 AM
OUVan wrote:expand_more
We are up to #8 of the road teams.   #8 on the home side is Northern Iowa.


I wonder how the return game would work if we ended up playing at Northern Iowa? I believe they already owe us a return game from the road game we played at their place last year. 
OUVan
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Posted: 1/26/2013 12:33 PM
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead wrote:expand_more
I wonder how the return game would work if we ended up playing at Northern Iowa? I believe they already owe us a return game from the road game we played at their place last year. 


I'd guess they would try to avoid that matchup.  Other good possibilities are Valpo, Murray State and Indiana State.  Wouldn't mind seeing any of those three.
OUVan
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Posted: 1/26/2013 8:54 PM
Tonight's win over Kent should pretty much assure us a TV matchup.
catfan28
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Posted: 1/27/2013 11:11 AM
Between our Sweet 16 appearance and current "hot streak", might we get one of the marquee TV match-ups this year? We usually are reeling a little bit into the BracketBuster selection...so this is somewhat of an uncharted territory!
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Posted: 1/27/2013 11:18 AM
According to ESPN's Daily RPI, which should not change much before tomorrow's announcements here are the Top 100 RPI teams for BBuster:

Home Teams:                                Road Teams
Wichita State (16)                          Creighton (31)
Belmont (20)                                  North Dakota State (64)
Indiana State (55 - tie)                  South Dakota State (65)
St. Mary's (59)                                Eastern Kentucky (76)
Akron (72)                                       Stephen F. Austin (81)
Valparaiso (89 - tie)                      Detroit (89 - tie)
Murray State (93)                           Ohio (98)
UIC (99)                                           Evansville (100)

Other Home Teams Of Note:
Long Beach State (110)
Davidson (124)
Western Illinois (138)
Wright State (144)
Loyola Ill (165)
Youngstown State (174 - tie)

Some thoughts in guessing the opponent:
-I think the only thing we are guaranteed here is Creighton @ Belmont as the primo game.
-This year's field is overloaded with home teams. Wichita State and St. Mary's should be double digit favorites over whoever they play.
-I lean toward S Dakota St @ Wichita St as the next game. SDSt beat NDSt last night.
-Speaking of which, shame on the MAC for its scheduling this year. Scheduling is usually of no significance other than it is cool to play your rivals down the stretch. This year the MAC intertwined the first set of division games with the set from the opposite division. In the preseason, the MAC favorites were clearly Ohio and Akron, followed by Kent State. They should have made sure to have these teams play each other once before BBuster announcements. A pre-BBuster announcement Ohio-Akron matchup could have helped both teams. Again, I reference the NDSt@SDSt game last night. Kudos, Summit League.
-I think any Top 100 team is a win for Ohio, with the exception of UIC. Let's hope this does not come down to a regional flavored-game with OU@Wright State.
-Is Wichita State out of the picture? I don't think so. ESPN should want the best storylines featured in TV games. Show me a more marketable road team besides Creighton. Sweet 16 team with everyone back. DJ Cooper moving up NCAA career lists. Top assist team in the nation. Can't you just see the ESPN Full Screens now?
-OK, Wichita State is probably too bold. But what about bumping up Ohio to go play @St Mary's. It doesn't make sense regionally, but then again, who makes sense to send to St Mary's? Best regional matchup for St Mary's is Montana (RPI #121 and undefeated in conference play).
-One other storyline that could make sense: Ohio@UIC... DJ Cooper returns to Chicago. This is a worst case scenario, IMO. Here is a 4-4 Horizon team with losses at Miami and at Toledo.

That said, here are my most likely BBuster matchups:
S Dakota St @ Wichita St
Creighton @ Belmont
N Dakota St @ St Mary's
Ohio @ Indiana St
Detroit @ Murray St
Eastern Kentucky @ Akron
Evansville @ Valparaiso
Stephen F. Austin @ UIC

And % chances of Ohio opponent:
Indiana St (25%)
Murray St (20%)
Valparaiso (15%)
UIC (10%)
Wichita St (6%)
St Mary's (5%)
Wright St (5%)
Davidson (4%)
Western Illinois (2%)
Loyola Ill (2%)
Belmont (1%)
Someone Else (5%)




Last Edited: 1/27/2013 12:15:48 PM by Granger's Towel
shabamon
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Posted: 1/27/2013 11:26 AM
ouallday wrote:expand_more
That said, here are my most likely BBuster opponents:
S Dakota St @ Wichita St
Creighton @ Belmont
N Dakota St @ St Mary's
Ohio @ Indiana St
Eastern Kentucky @ Murray St
Detroit @ Akron
Evansville @ Valparaiso
Stephen F. Austin @ UIC

And % chances of opponent:
Indiana St (25%)
Murray St (20%)
Valparaiso (15%)
UIC (10%)
Wichita St (6%)
St Mary's (5%)
Wright St (5%)
Davidson (4%)
Western Illinois (2%)
Loyola Ill (2%)
Belmont (1%)
Someone Else (5%)


Won't happen. They are both in the OVC.
The Optimist
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Posted: 1/27/2013 11:29 AM
We have a lot going for us.....
catfan28
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Posted: 1/27/2013 11:32 AM
I'm guessing Indiana State - close regional opponent and a bit of a "step up" in the RPI. Would get ESPN2 or most likely ESPNU.
The Optimist
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Posted: 1/27/2013 11:39 AM
When you look at the bracketbuster press releases so far, all say "this years field includes Ohio University, who made the Sweet Sixteen last year.". That bodes very well for us getting a TV game.  As has been mentioned, this team is very marketable.
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Posted: 1/27/2013 11:41 AM
I'd love St. Mary's, even if it is sort of a long shot. Sure, most people would not be able to go to the game, but I respect that program a lot.
catfan28
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Posted: 1/27/2013 12:00 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
When you look at the bracketbuster press releases so far, all say "this years field includes Ohio University, who made the Sweet Sixteen last year.". That bodes very well for us getting a TV game.  As has been mentioned, this team is very marketable.


Perhaps, but I don't see them moving us up too high in the pecking order. There's other teams that have proven themselves better on the court - thus far - this year.
Granger's Towel
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Posted: 1/27/2013 12:11 PM
Slip up on Eastern K/Murray State. I guess flop it to:
Eastern K @ Akron
Detroit @ Murray St

I completely disagree with the teams that have proven themselves on the court this year. ESPN only cares about ratings. The common fan is not going to know that Eastern Kentucky is 20 RPI spots better than Ohio and it is not going to influence the fact that each team's fan base will watch regardless. IMO it is going to come down to Ohio and other road teams from this perspective:

"Hey, I remember that Ohio team that went to the Sweet 16 and took UNC to OT last year. They have that point guard who is insane. Oh look, he's on my TV. I think I will watch a few minutes of this instead of Seton Hall-Louisville."

OR

"Hey, there's that XXXXXXX team that did XXXXXXX or has player XXXXXXX or beat that XXXXXXX team that one time."... Save for Creighton, no road team has that.
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:24 PM
I would love if we played Belmont. They are currentlly 17-4 and having two losses against Kansas and VCU and UCF and North Eastern all played away from home. I would make a trip Nashville to see this marquee match-up that would be destined for ESPN coverage. 
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:46 PM
Bobcats_828 wrote:expand_more
I would love if we played Belmont. They are currentlly 17-4 and having two losses against Kansas and VCU and UCF and North Eastern all played away from home. I would make a trip Nashville to see this marquee match-up that would be destined for ESPN coverage. 


man, Belmont would be awesome. I'm a couple hours away and would definitely be there. it's a long shot, but would be great.
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Posted: 1/27/2013 2:30 PM

Here's the teams ranked in the top 150 of ESPN's BPI. ESPN picks the TV matchups, while a board of conference commissioners pick the non-TV matchups. It seems safe Ohio would be featured in the nine games on one of the ESPN TV networks and it would seem there's a good chance to get one of the ESPN or ESPN2 games (there are five of those and four on ESPNU).

HOME
Wichita State-13 (19-2)
Belmont-41 (17-4)
St. Mary's-43 (17-4)
Akron-47 (15-4)
Northern Iowa-68 (11-10)
Indiana State-70 (13-7)
Valparaiso-73 (16-5)
Murray State-103 (15-5)
Davidson-106 (13-7)
Oral Roberts-115 (12-8)
Utah State-123 (14-5)
Western Michigan-131 (12-7)
Western Illinois-132 (16-5)
Drake-136 (9-10)
Charleston-138 (14-7)
UIC-141 (13-8)
Wright State-143 (14-7)
Vermont-150 (13-7)

AWAY
Creighton-11 (17-3)
Illinois State-67 (12-9)
North Dakota State-69 (16-5)
Ohio-77 (15-5)
Stephen F. Austin-82 (16-2)
Denver-84 (11-8)
Detroit-91 (13-8)
Iona-102 (13-7)
Weber State-105 (13-5)
Evansville-109 (12-9)
Canisius-114 (13-7)
Pacific-117 (12-8)
Eastern Kentucky-118 (16-5)
Loyold (Md.)-119 (15-6)
south Dakota State-124 (16-6)
Northwestern State-128 (12-6)
Charleston Southern-129 (12-6)
Bradley-130 (12-9)
Green Bay-139 (11-10)
Montana-142 (14-4)

Some of these vary quite a bit from the RPI. Obviously, Ohio ranks higher in ESPN's BPI than in the RPI.

Wichita State clearly is the No. 1 home team and can't play either of the top two away teams because of being in the same conference. Because of that, I wouldn't count out Ohio getting that game. North Dakota State is a possibility for the Shockers, but they easily could be in third place in their conference by the time this game comes around. Stephen F. Austin comes from a pretty lowly regarded conference, but SFA did win at Oklahoma. Yesterday's loss to Northwestern State hurt them.

I'd bet Creighton gets matched up with St. Mary's. Could be Belmont or Akron, I suppose, but the name recognition probably makes Creighton-St. Mary's more likely, in my opinion. I think Northern Iowa's sub-.500 conference record drops them.

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Posted: 1/27/2013 2:51 PM
UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more

Here's the teams ranked in the top 150 of ESPN's BPI. ESPN picks the TV matchups, while a board of conference commissioners pick the non-TV matchups. It seems safe Ohio would be featured in the nine games on one of the ESPN TV networks and it would seem there's a good chance to get one of the ESPN or ESPN2 games (there are five of those and four on ESPNU).

HOME
Wichita State-13 (19-2)
Belmont-41 (17-4)
St. Mary's-43 (17-4)
Akron-47 (15-4)
Northern Iowa-68 (11-10)
Indiana State-70 (13-7)
Valparaiso-73 (16-5)
Murray State-103 (15-5)
Davidson-106 (13-7)
Oral Roberts-115 (12-8)
Utah State-123 (14-5)
Western Michigan-131 (12-7)
Western Illinois-132 (16-5)
Drake-136 (9-10)
Charleston-138 (14-7)
UIC-141 (13-8)
Wright State-143 (14-7)
Vermont-150 (13-7)

AWAY
Creighton-11 (17-3)
Illinois State-67 (12-9)
North Dakota State-69 (16-5)
Ohio-77 (15-5)
Stephen F. Austin-82 (16-2)
Denver-84 (11-8)
Detroit-91 (13-8)
Iona-102 (13-7)
Weber State-105 (13-5)
Evansville-109 (12-9)
Canisius-114 (13-7)
Pacific-117 (12-8)
Eastern Kentucky-118 (16-5)
Loyold (Md.)-119 (15-6)
south Dakota State-124 (16-6)
Northwestern State-128 (12-6)
Charleston Southern-129 (12-6)
Bradley-130 (12-9)
Green Bay-139 (11-10)
Montana-142 (14-4)

Some of these vary quite a bit from the RPI. Obviously, Ohio ranks higher in ESPN's BPI than in the RPI.

Wichita State clearly is the No. 1 home team and can't play either of the top two away teams because of being in the same conference. Because of that, I wouldn't count out Ohio getting that game. North Dakota State is a possibility for the Shockers, but they easily could be in third place in their conference by the time this game comes around. Stephen F. Austin comes from a pretty lowly regarded conference, but SFA did win at Oklahoma. Yesterday's loss to Northwestern State hurt them.

I'd bet Creighton gets matched up with St. Mary's. Could be Belmont or Akron, I suppose, but the name recognition probably makes Creighton-St. Mary's more likely, in my opinion. I think Northern Iowa's sub-.500 conference record drops them.



I think Creighton played Akron at home this year. I couldn't see Creighton playing them again. I can see them playing Saint Mary's or Wichita State. Which ever team doesn't play Creighton plays Illinois State. I can see us playing either Belmont, Indiana State, and Val with a small chance of playing Murray State. 
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