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Topic: Norlander on CBS sports - bracket projections
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OU_Country
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Posted: 2/18/2013 12:34 PM
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Matt Norlander seems to believe a "W" at Belmont puts Ohio back into discussion on the edge of the bubble as an at-large.  Just imagine what beating Winthrop and Bobby Mo could have done for this?

Obviously it doesn't mean much right now, but it's always good to have media folks talking about our Bobcats.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-co...
Pataskala
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Posted: 2/18/2013 3:06 PM
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It's great he's thinking about us, but realistically I think it's a stretch.  Our two wins this past week (vs. 244 CMU & 180 Kent) got us from an 82 RPI to a 74.  The cutoff for an at-large will likely be upper 40s.  If beating EMU (233), Belmont (25) and Akron (48) can get us under 60, we might have a shot.  Our last three regular season games won't be much help.  Buffalo is at 224, BGSUcks is at 241 and Fiami is at 262.  (Akron beat EMU and BG this past week and climbed only from 51 to 48.)  To have a shot at an at-large, we'd have to win out the regular season and beat WMU (114) in the semis of the MAC tourney before losing to Akron in the championship game if we're the #2 seed.  If we went in as the #1 seed, we should pull for seeing Kent in the semis.  [RPIs are as of 2/18 from the NCAA.]

So realistically we need to win out to get to the NCAA tourney.  And if we do -- beating Akron once or twice, Belmont, WMU and/or Kent -- we might get a 12 seed, but more likely a 13.
Last Edited: 2/18/2013 3:09:55 PM by Pataskala
OU_Country
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Posted: 2/18/2013 3:41 PM
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I know it's unlikely, but I did like that he brought us into the discussion.  This is where I always throw into the conversation my disagreement with any at-large team getting in with a losing record in their conference.  Right now, that might include Minnesota and JG's Illini.  I'm really opposed to that because I don't see how a team that wasn't one of the best in it's own conference should be considered as one of the 30+ best teams to be at-large selections.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 4:19 PM
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One game at time here is the key. A win against EMU on Wednesday and Ohio clinches a #3 seed and a 20 win season. That is a good milestone for JC because I don't know if an Ohio coach has ever won 20 games in year 1 of his regime. Belmont and Akron are going to be very tough games. I'm hoping that we can at least split. Unless Ohio wins out to the MAC finals the only road is the MAC tournament.  
Athens
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Posted: 2/18/2013 4:25 PM
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OU_Country wrote:expand_more
I know it's unlikely, but I did like that he brought us into the discussion.  This is where I always throw into the conversation my disagreement with any at-large team getting in with a losing record in their conference.  Right now, that might include Minnesota and JG's Illini.  I'm really opposed to that because I don't see how a team that wasn't one of the best in it's own conference should be considered as one of the 30+ best teams to be at-large selections.


They should require a .500 conference record for an at-large berth and look at the last 10 games. I'm not sure if they give a bonus to road wins vs. home wins but they did for a while. With recruiting more of an exact science today there aren't too many teams capable of winning a game in the NCAAs left at home though.
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 2/18/2013 4:48 PM
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Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more
They should require a .500 conference record for an at-large berth and look at the last 10 games. I'm not sure if they give a bonus to road wins vs. home wins but they did for a while. With recruiting more of an exact science today there aren't too many teams capable of winning a game in the NCAAs left at home though.


Home wins and road wins are factored into the RPI now, so it's a factor. Supposedly the committee does consider to some extent how a team has been playing recently. Of course, there is no minimum conference record requirement.
Last Edited: 2/18/2013 5:12:38 PM by UpSan Bobcat
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 2/18/2013 5:12 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
The cutoff for an at-large will likely be upper 40s.  If beating EMU (233), Belmont (25) and Akron (48) can get us under 60, we might have a shot. 


By my calculations, going 3-0 in these games probably would raise Ohio to around 60, depending on the results of other games. Going even 2-1 will give the Bobcats a good boost.
JerseyArnie
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Posted: 2/18/2013 7:31 PM
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OU_Country wrote:expand_more
I know it's unlikely, but I did like that he brought us into the discussion.  This is where I always throw into the conversation my disagreement with any at-large team getting in with a losing record in their conference.  Right now, that might include Minnesota and JG's Illini.  I'm really opposed to that because I don't see how a team that wasn't one of the best in it's own conference should be considered as one of the 30+ best teams to be at-large selections.


Illinois has beaten #1 Indiana, #8 Ohio State,, #10 Gonzega, #18 Minnesota...and have now won 4 in a row in the Big 10.  I believe they deserve to be in the tournament, even with a losing record  6-7 in THE Big 10.
Ozcat
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Posted: 2/18/2013 9:17 PM
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I'm fairly certain they do not look at conference record at all. They judge each team based on total body if work, and they do tend to reward you for tough road wins and recent record.  There's no way they should look at conference record, as conference power shifts each year. The Big Ten is absolutely stacked this season, while the PAC 12 and SEC are both down per their usual standard.  The Big Ten and Big East both deserve 7 teams.
I do believe conference domination should also count for something though. If Akron and Ohio both go 15-1, that is damn impressive and IMO should be rewarded.
bornacatfan
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Posted: 2/18/2013 9:30 PM
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JerseyArnie wrote:expand_more
Illinois has beaten #1 Indiana, #8 Ohio State,, #10 Gonzega, #18 Minnesota...and have now won 4 in a row in the Big 10.  I believe they deserve to be in the tournament, even with a losing record  6-7 in THE Big 10.


As much as I detest that thought it is correct. They did their OOC work. They should win a couple more BIGfinity games.

Wes. Sorry ....I do not think being the first 1st year coach in OHIO history to win 20 games is much of an accomplishment when you have every one back off a sweet 16 team. Not wanting to be negative but his goals have to be higher than to win 20 games with that many ponies in the stable and a seasoned upperclass laden team. Just my opinion of course FWIW.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 10:08 PM
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At large chances evaporated with the Winthrop game.  Put it out of your mind.  Win MAC, Win Tourney.  Only goals now IMO.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 10:30 PM
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Akron needs us to beat Belmont more than we need to beat Belmont...

hate to say it, but best case scenario for the MAC is we win all of our games except home vs. Akron and then we beat Akron in the MAC championship game - probably only chance we get two teams in... 
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/18/2013 11:54 PM
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Turney--Apparently your excellent book is available now.  Is there a way to buy it through you such that I end up with an autographed copy?  Thanks, Monroe
Athens
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Posted: 2/18/2013 11:57 PM
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bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
Wes. Sorry ....I do not think being the first 1st year coach in OHIO history to win 20 games is much of an accomplishment when you have every one back off a sweet 16 team. Not wanting to be negative but his goals have to be higher than to win 20 games with that many ponies in the stable and a seasoned upperclass laden team. Just my opinion of course FWIW.


JC hasn't bombed so I would at least give his a body of work a B. Its an A if he can make in back to the NCAAs. Ohio is an NCAA caliber program that without doubt that has the talent to belong in the field. This is not a Sweet 16 level program. Ohio is capable of winning some games in the tournament because of the system run and players recruited around that system. The school won't get a decent seed because of the MAC but out of a stronger conference like the A10 the Bobcats would be at the #7 to #10 seed level.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 11:58 PM
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IF we win out, there may be an outside shot. But, I think it's win in Cleveland or bust.

Let's not take any chances! 
bornacatfan
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Posted: 2/19/2013 12:18 AM
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Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more
Wes. Sorry ....I do not think being the first 1st year coach in OHIO history to win 20 games is much of an accomplishment when you have every one back off a sweet 16 team. Not wanting to be negative but his goals have to be higher than to win 20 games with that many ponies in the stable and a seasoned upperclass laden team. Just my opinion of course FWIW.


JC hasn't bombed so I would at least give his a body of work a B. Its an A if he can make in back to the NCAAs. Ohio is an NCAA caliber program that without doubt that has the talent to belong in the field. This is not a Sweet 16 level program. Ohio is capable of winning some games in the tournament because of the system run and players recruited around that system. The school won't get a decent seed because of the MAC but out of a stronger conference like the A10 the Bobcats would be at the #7 to #10 seed level.


that is a pretty good summary. The 20 win mark is fast losing its significance as teams play more and more games each year. I agree the sentiment on a stronger conference. Going to see the Dukes vs Butler tomorrow. There is a ton of difference between the top and bottom of that conference but the top has a gathering of teams that are tough come toruney time.

THat said, the OHIO I have envisoned in the future is a perennial force in the MAC and has dominance written all over it. We will see how that plays out. The foundation has been set.
Athens
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Posted: 2/19/2013 12:23 AM
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This program is starting to turn the corner to being in the NCAA's every year or close to it. The days of 7-9 MAC seasons are thankfully done. JC has never won less than 11 games in the MAC. Cooper is going to end up as the program's Matt Santangelo the one player that got the program rolling. The Ohio program is a perfect fit for JC as a veteran coach where the pay bumps will be there but not the pressure of trying to win at a lower tier power conference program. 
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Posted: 2/19/2013 9:23 AM
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Turney13 wrote:expand_more
Akron needs us to beat Belmont more than we need to beat Belmont...

hate to say it, but best case scenario for the MAC is we win all of our games except home vs. Akron and then we beat Akron in the MAC championship game - probably only chance we get two teams in... 

I agree that Akron needs us to beat Belmont more than we need to beat Belmont, but I disagree on the rest.

If Akron beats us in the Convo and we win every other game this season (including Belmont) and beat Akron in the MAC title.  Akron is a lock to get in.  100%.  Sure thing.

Now if we win out period, including Belmont, and Akron 2 times, I still think Akron has a shot to get in if they win every other game.  A pretty good shot...

Ohio at-large?  If we can beat Belmont and Akron and lose to Akron in the final, it is possible.  Not as likely as the 2 cases above, but we would at least get mention on the show as a bubble team I think.

...

The "bubble teams" at this point in the season frustrate me.  All the analysts look at resumes as of now, not how they think they will be at seasons end.  No one was talking about Akron and Ohio on the bubble 1 month ago because their resume didn't merit it...  The issue with that is that both Ohio and Akron were favored to win out a month ago...  And if they win out, then their resume doesn't look so bad...
OUVan
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Posted: 2/19/2013 9:42 AM
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PalmerFest wrote:expand_more
At large chances evaporated with the Winthrop game.  Put it out of your mind.  Win MAC, Win Tourney.  Only goals now IMO.


The Winthrop game could have been negated if we had won any of our big road games.  Our biggest problem isn't negatives on our resume. It's the lack of punctuation wins.
OU_Country
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Posted: 2/19/2013 11:14 AM
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Ozcat wrote:expand_more
I'm fairly certain they do not look at conference record at all. They judge each team based on total body if work, and they do tend to reward you for tough road wins and recent record.  There's no way they should look at conference record, as conference power shifts each year. The Big Ten is absolutely stacked this season, while the PAC 12 and SEC are both down per their usual standard.  The Big Ten and Big East both deserve 7 teams.
I do believe conference domination should also count for something though. If Akron and Ohio both go 15-1, that is damn impressive and IMO should be rewarded.


I disagree - they should look at conference records. No matter how good the B1G is, (or the Big East/ACC in the past) there's no way you can tell me that going through a conference like that with a 7-9 or 8-10 record warrants an at-large bid.  Beat the schedule you're given with at least a .500 conference record, and try to schedule a decent non-conf schedule.

I like the "conference dominance" concept, but obviously that will likely never come into play for conferences like ours.

bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
Wes. Sorry ....I do not think being the first 1st year coach in OHIO history to win 20 games is much of an accomplishment when you have every one back off a sweet 16 team. Not wanting to be negative but his goals have to be higher than to win 20 games with that many ponies in the stable and a seasoned upperclass laden team. Just my opinion of course FWIW.


JC hasn't bombed so I would at least give his a body of work a B. Its an A if he can make in back to the NCAAs. Ohio is an NCAA caliber program that without doubt that has the talent to belong in the field. This is not a Sweet 16 level program. Ohio is capable of winning some games in the tournament because of the system run and players recruited around that system. The school won't get a decent seed because of the MAC but out of a stronger conference like the A10 the Bobcats would be at the #7 to #10 seed level.


that is a pretty good summary. The 20 win mark is fast losing its significance as teams play more and more games each year. I agree the sentiment on a stronger conference. Going to see the Dukes vs Butler tomorrow. There is a ton of difference between the top and bottom of that conference but the top has a gathering of teams that are tough come toruney time.

THat said, the OHIO I have envisoned in the future is a perennial force in the MAC and has dominance written all over it. We will see how that plays out. The foundation has been set.


Seems to me the new mark should really be 24-25 wins to show a program's excellence.  If you play 30-31 games before the postseason, that's a 24-7 record at worst prior to tournament time.  20 seems to have been the magic number back when 26-28 games were played.
Casper71
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Posted: 2/19/2013 1:35 PM
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Not sure what everyone is smoking here...a few years back I analyzed the "at-large" tourney teams.  I've looked at it every year since (although casually).  Basically, you need an RPI of 50 or less to get an at large (even then with a losing record you don't get in).  So, you can talk about wins and losses and all that, I just don't see how we get to an RPI of 50 or less.  If we do we are in.  If we don't we are out. 

That is why at this point the only gmes that count are the MAC tourney games in march.  Best scenario for the MAC is that Akron gets the less than 50 RPI (possible) and we beat them in the Championship game.  I don't think OHIO beating Belmont and Akron (one of two) gets us to the magical "less than 50 RPI".
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Posted: 2/19/2013 3:28 PM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
Not sure what everyone is smoking here...a few years back I analyzed the "at-large" tourney teams.  I've looked at it every year since (although casually).  Basically, you need an RPI of 50 or less to get an at large (even then with a losing record you don't get in).  So, you can talk about wins and losses and all that, I just don't see how we get to an RPI of 50 or less.  If we do we are in.  If we don't we are out. 

That is why at this point the only gmes that count are the MAC tourney games in march.  Best scenario for the MAC is that Akron gets the less than 50 RPI (possible) and we beat them in the Championship game.  I don't think OHIO beating Belmont and Akron (one of two) gets us to the magical "less than 50 RPI".


http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Ohio.html

I know the above website is a crude exercise. It assumes that every other team finishes according to it''s most likely finish. But according to it, if we lost only 1 game the remainder of the season, say for instance the MAC Championship game, our most likely RPI finish would be around 44.

But we are a long way from that folks.
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Posted: 2/19/2013 3:37 PM
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The guys at Dance Card formula use previous NCAA at-large selections to determine how future committees will select. Ohio is way off the pace.  During the Kent St. game, they showed Ohio's tourney resume. Best win was....Richmond. Ohio had its chance with UMass, Memphis and Oklahoma. Win 2 of those and get 14 MAC wins and you get in even with the Winthrop/RMU losses. Win one and you're squarely on the bubble.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, February 17, 2013, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University. 

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. To get the rankings shown below, we have removed the historical conference-related biases found in the past committee decisions on which the Dance Card was based. In other words, if the current committee is free of the same biases, its decisions should closely match the predictions below. 

Last season the "biased" Dance Card correctly predicted 35 of 37 at-large bids (95%). The "unbiased" version correctly predicted 36 of 37 bids (97%), suggesting that last year's committee closely followed the performance-related patterns of past committees, without also showing similar historical biases. 

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. (Although the bubble line reflects this year's 68-team (37 at-large bid) field, the probability shown reflects a 65-team (34 at-large bid) Tournament.) The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. 

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Duke
9.8974
100.00%
1
2
Indiana
9.4029
100.00%
9
3
Michigan St.
9.2378
100.00%
7
4
Kansas
8.5978
100.00%
4
5
Michigan
8.4857
100.00%
12
         
6
Miami FL
8.3069
100.00%
2
7
Louisville
8.2142
100.00%
8
8
Gonzaga
7.7175
100.00%
10
9
Wisconsin
7.3618
100.00%
21
10
Georgetown
7.3583
100.00%
14
         
11
Florida
7.2257
100.00%
5
12
Syracuse
6.3483
100.00%
11
13
New Mexico
6.2850
100.00%
3
14
Arizona
6.1705
100.00%
6
15
Marquette
5.9332
100.00%
15
         
16
Kansas St.
5.6515
100.00%
18
17
Oklahoma St.
5.1056
100.00%
24
18
Pittsburgh
4.8617
100.00%
30
19
Illinois
4.4089
100.00%
20
20
Minnesota
4.3687
100.00%
13
         
21
Colorado St.
4.2734
100.00%
16
22
Ohio St.
4.0890
100.00%
26
23
Cincinnati
3.9336
100.00%
29
24
Butler
3.6739
99.99%
23
26
North Carolina St.
2.9702
99.85%
22
         
27
San Diego St.
2.9648
99.85%
35
28
Oklahoma
2.9293
99.83%
19
29
UCLA
2.7379
99.69%
31
30
Colorado
2.6527
99.60%
28
31
Memphis
2.2616
98.81%
17
         
32
Notre Dame
2.2503
98.78%
42
33
Oregon
2.1459
98.41%
39
34
Virginia Commonwealth
2.0992
98.21%
32
35
Nevada Las Vegas
1.6977
95.52%
25
36
St. Louis
1.5896
94.40%
40
         
37
Baylor
1.1438
87.36%
45
38
Wichita St.
1.1394
87.27%
36
39
North Carolina
1.0795
85.98%
33
40
California
1.0209
84.63%
46
41
Villanova
0.9349
82.51%
59
         
42
Creighton
0.8172
79.31%
44
43
Missouri
0.7576
77.57%
41
44
La Salle
0.6679
74.79%
38
45
Kentucky
0.0200
50.80%
43
46
Middle Tennessee
-0.0680
47.29%
34
         
47
St. Mary's
-0.3658
35.73%
48
48
Virginia
-0.4942
31.06%
81
49
Iowa St.
-0.4975
30.94%
57
50
Mississippi
-0.5953
27.58%
52
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
51
St. John's
-0.6574
25.55%
50
         
52
Maryland
-0.6903
24.50%
53
53
Alabama
-0.9214
17.84%
54
54
Arizona St.
-1.0843
13.91%
62
55
Belmont
-1.1603
12.30%
37
56
Iowa
-1.2771
10.08%
75
         
57
Louisiana Tech
-1.4860
6.86%
61
58
Temple
-1.6941
4.51%
47
59
Southern Mississippi
-1.7189
4.28%
49
60
Akron
-1.9309
2.67%
60
61
Florida St.
-2.2726
1.15%
55
         
62
Arkansas
-2.5405
0.55%
69
63
Tennessee
-2.7903
0.26%
63
64
Massachusetts
-2.8974
0.19%
51
65
Providence
-2.9140
0.18%
72
66
Brigham Young
-2.9159
0.18%
66
         
67
Northern Iowa
-2.9360
0.17%
68
68
Stanford
-2.9803
0.14%
67
69
Charlotte
-3.1236
0.09%
58
70
Air Force
-3.4066
0.03%
73
71
Washington
-3.9555
0.00%
74
         
72
Boise St.
-3.9651
0.00%
56
73
Indiana St.
-3.9655
0.00%
71
74
Xavier
-4.1160
0.00%
93
75
Denver
-4.4923
0.00%
98
76
Detroit
-5.0129
0.00%
77
         
77
Wyoming
-5.3965
0.00%
65
78
Southern California
-5.4159
0.00%
88
79
Ohio
-5.4289
0.00%
84
80
Texas A&M
-5.6235
0.00%
64
81
New Mexico St.
-5.8117
0.00%
90
 
Chicken George
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Member Since: 1/3/2005
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Chicken George
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Posted: 2/19/2013 5:24 PM
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Aside from the big bucks, this is also a significant reason why coaches who can get out of the MAC and into a better conference, do.  You're 19-6, you've lost one sticken game in a couple months and you're not even in the discussion.  Playing the MAC regular season is merely an exhibition, other than seeding.  Same goes for Akron realizing that they too could win out, lose in the MAC Championship game and have to sweat bullets on Selection Sunday.  Truly the biggest MAC Basketball Bummer of all, but it's the reality everyone lives with.
Casper71
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Casper71
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Posted: 2/20/2013 11:08 AM
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Just another reason to get out of the MAC and leave the company we now keep.  The MAC overall is not helping OUr team in basketball or football...not that there haven't been times that we were the hinderance!
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