(If) we start playing well enough to actually win the MAC Tournament, I think we are going to be playing well enough to knock somebody off in the big dance.
I also think that (if) we were to get there our seed would be much better than has been discussed. All things considered, our OOC resume looks pretty darn good. Not only that, but the committee has shown a tendency to factor in injuries... (IF) we get hot here, I think they might consider some forgiving the recent slide and seed us more based on our OOC showing.
Either way, I will take always take the NCAA bid over anything else. The benefits are too great to pass up. Plus I believe this team likes to show up in the spotlight...
I'm pretty much disagree with most of everything you said.
By winning the MAC, we would not have beaten a team as good as what we would then play in the NCAA tourney. Still only a 11-12 seed I would think.
Our OOC is looking worse all the time, Oakland, Valpo and UNI all lost last night in their tourneys, they're not helping.
Our losses to some pretty bad teams, both in and out of conference and no really good wins overall will hurt our seeding big time.
We are really swimming backwards right now and it is hard to see us winning 5 games or whatever the craziness of the setup of MAC tourney is.
I agree that I would still take the NCAA bid.
I have no idea about "this"team showing up in the spotlight-what is that based on?
Based on how poorly received my posts on our RPI were received over the course of the season, I was expecting complete disagreement over my last post.
For whatever reason, our OOC schedule from this season isn't getting the respect it deserves on this board. There is a reason most of the computers have us as a Top 100 team despite going 4-5 at HOME in conference play. Actually, 2 big reasons. 1, the MAC's computer rankings this year are actually very respectable across the board. 6 top-100 teams. First time in awhile the conference has done that. (we have 4 top 100 wins in MAC play alone!) Another bonus, the MAC doesn't have too many teams pulling the conference down... Only Ball and CMU are ballpark of 300 in the RPI. Even NIU has managed to climb up near 200. If the majority of teams are Top 200, that really limits the "drag" that playing (even if you win) can have on a team's numbers.
As for our OOC schedule, 2 top-100 wins (Richmond and Mercer) along with another just outside the Top 100 (Northern Iowa) and just as important, a lack of any killer losses. Now, let me stop you there. We lost at Oakland... Oakland is not a good loss by any means, but they have managed to stay right inside the Top 200. While losing to teams between 100-200 isn't going to help your resume, just one OOC loss to that group isn't the killer some make it out to be. Our only other two OOC loses? Fairly close loses to Top 25 teams.
If you remove the MAC schedule, this is easily our best "resume" in awhile except for maybe 2012.
When talking about the "if" we win the MAC tournament, it is important to remember that pulling it off would mean we win 5 games. We are already 21-10. So +5 would mean 26-10. When you look at the computer rankings of the teams we need to beat to win 5, you likely have 2 to 3 more games against Top 100 teams (Akron, Toledo and probably a top 100 final against WMU or Buffalo)
Now, we are already ballpark of 80 in the RPI. Winning 5 against the teams we would have to beat to do that would push us pretty darn close to 50.
26-10, 50ish RPI, quite a few Top 100 wins and ZERO loses to teams below 200... That is a pretty decent resume.
The key being we win the next 5 games.