Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Outcoached Tonight
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Ozcat
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Posted: 3/6/2013 1:58 PM
JerseyArnie wrote:expand_more
While the MAC is a strong football conference, it is a extremely weak basketball conference. Thus I am less than impressed.

I don't know why I am answering you guys though, as I realize it is a complete waste of my time.

When defending a position that isn't grounded in anything other than perception, yeah, you're wasting your time.

The #25 ranking in the Coache's Poll was nothing more than a nod to what we accomplished in the Dance.  Prior to those two wins, we weren't garnering an ounce of attention.
Bhugh24
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Posted: 3/6/2013 1:59 PM
RedRustler:

I asked about Coach Dambrot from Akron, because I think that is an interesting case in comparing coaches.

Would you rather have Coach Dambrot or Coach John Groce?

Coach Dambrot has won consistently at a high level since being at akron - has won MAC regular season titles, has been to the MAC championship game for 6 straight years. But he has, as best I can tell, not won a single signature OOC game, has a poor MAC championship record and no NCAA or NIT postseason wins.

John Groce has consitently (too this point, including his time at Illinois) won big OOC games (or at Ohio was very competitive), is 2-0 in conference championship games and has 3 NCAA wins. But his teams (including Illinois) under perform during regular seasons, and not competing for regular season championships.
Mark Lembright '85
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Posted: 3/6/2013 2:13 PM
Bhugh24 wrote:expand_more
RedRustler:

I asked about Coach Dambrot from Akron, because I think that is an interesting case in comparing coaches.

Would you rather have Coach Dambrot or Coach John Groce?

Coach Dambrot has won consistently at a high level since being at akron - has won MAC regular season titles, has been to the MAC championship game for 6 straight years. But he has, as best I can tell, not won a single signature OOC game, has a poor MAC championship record and no NCAA or NIT postseason wins.

John Groce has consitently (too this point, including his time at Illinois) won big OOC games (or at Ohio was very competitive), is 2-0 in conference championship games and has 3 NCAA wins. But his teams (including Illinois) under perform during regular seasons, and not competing for regular season championships.


But he has, as best I can tell, not won a single signature OOC game

Just to play devil's advocate, I thought Akron's win against Mississippi State last year to start out the season was a good win for Akron.

I will say this though.  As we have seen so far this season, until JC does win a significant OOC game, JC will be vulnerable to the kind of arguments Redrustler's making.  Redrustler is right in this regard, our OOC record so far this year isn't as good as last year's, our MAC record this year notwithstanding. 

But our MAC record this season is historically good-can't knock that at all!!  8-1 MAC on the road???  Seriously??  TOS would've killed for that record.

I think we can all agree-GO CATS!!!
redrustler
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Posted: 3/6/2013 4:08 PM
And again, if they have Top 25 talent and John Groce was a great coach, why didn't they perform like a Top 25 team for all of the regular season?

Because, Ted, they got better as the season went along. Were they a top 25 team in March? I think they were, which is why they were ranked at the #25 team in the country for the last poll of the year. Were they a top 25 team at the beginning of the year? Probably not. And even most top 25 teams lose games they should not loose. Don't forget, Penn St. beat Michigan this year. And that is the problem with your Sagarins and RPI figures - they equally weigh the games early in the year with the games late in the year. That may accurately predict performance for some, or perhaps, perhaps, most teams. But they do not predict performance for all teams, and all I am suggesting is that you stop looking at the numbers long enough to look at what may be an exception to your rule. Would Columbus have set sail for the new world if he listened to all the so-called experts who told him the world was flat? Ted, be Columbus.

Were the Giants the best team in the major leagues last year? Statistically, they were not a top ten team. But they were the best team when it counted.

Coach Dambrot has won consistently at a high level since being at akron - has won MAC regular season titles, has been to the MAC championship game for 6 straight years. But he has, as best I can tell, not won a single signature OOC game, has a poor MAC championship record and no NCAA or NIT postseason wins.

John Groce has consitently (too this point, including his time at Illinois) won big OOC games (or at Ohio was very competitive), is 2-0 in conference championship games and has 3 NCAA wins. But his teams (including Illinois) under perform during regular seasons, and not competing for regular season championships.

I agree with those who complain that Akron schedules a weak non-conference schedule. I don't know whether Dambrot is a good coach or not. I do know, as you write, he has not done much, short of regular season MAC wins, in terms of winning against quality out of conference opponents or post season wins. I don't know, but it would also appear, that major programs are not beating down Dambrot's door. Do they know something? Which is ironic, because, although the jury is still obviously out on this year, if JC does not make the NCAA tournament, and/or does not win a post season game, it would seem he would be starting to follow the same model as Dambrot. Would the same people here who slammed Dambrot in the past support JC?

You can say that Illinois has underperformed in conference, but they have a nineteen point win against Ohio State and a against Indiana, in a year in which Illinois was not expect to do anything. Would anyone really prefer to have a 12-2 MAC record with no signature wins to a 11-5 MAC record, and wins against Michigan, South Florida, and close losses against Louisville and North Carolina, and a win the previous year against Georgetown, and two MAC championships? Give me those results and an 11-5 MAC record. And as good as JC's MAC record is, it will mean nothing if he can't beat Akron. Hopefully, he will figure out a way to be them in the MAC tournament.
LongDistancebobcat
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Posted: 3/6/2013 4:23 PM
I'm going to bring back a point I made on an earlier thread this year.  I believe an apt comparison would be the NY football Giants.  Two seasons ago they muddled along and just barely made the playoffs. They got hot at the right time and went on to win the Super Bowl.  They easily could have lost to the 49'ers, but scratched out a win.  This year, with essentially the same roster, they again performed in a similar fashion, not making the playoffs.  Did Tom Coughlin become a bad coach? No.  Some players, notably Eli Manning, did not perform as well. It is hard to duplicate performance from one year to the next.  Why should 18 to 22 year olds be any different.  Walt Offut still plays hard and is a great kid.  Will he ever have a game again like he did against UNC? Probably not. That's the nature of athletics.  Nick Kellogg started to miss 3s.  Who knows why.  He wasn't trying to miss.  There is no explanation for Ivo's troubles this year that I am aware of.  If he played better, who knows what might have happened this year?  Yes, there might be different  results with JG this year, but to expect last year to be duplicated is just foolish.  OU caught lightning in a bottle last year.  It was a great ride.  Cherish the memories.  But to expect the same or similar results will probably set you up for unhappiness.  Celebrate whatever this group of young men has and will accomplish this year.
cincybobcat99
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Posted: 3/6/2013 4:28 PM
redrustler wrote:expand_more
And again, if they have Top 25 talent and John Groce was a great coach, why didn't they perform like a Top 25 team for all of the regular season?

Because, Ted, they got better as the season went along. Were they a top 25 team in March? I think they were, which is why they were ranked at the #25 team in the country for the last poll of the year. Were they a top 25 team at the beginning of the year? Probably not. And even most top 25 teams lose games they should not loose. Don't forget, Penn St. beat Michigan this year. And that is the problem with your Sagarins and RPI figures - they equally weigh the games early in the year with the games late in the year. That may accurately predict performance for some, or perhaps, perhaps, most teams. But they do not predict performance for all teams, and all I am suggesting is that you stop looking at the numbers long enough to look at what may be an exception to your rule. Would Columbus have set sail for the new world if he listened to all the so-called experts who told him the world was flat? Ted, be Columbus.

Were the Giants the best team in the major leagues last year? Statistically, they were not a top ten team. But they were the best team when it counted.

Coach Dambrot has won consistently at a high level since being at akron - has won MAC regular season titles, has been to the MAC championship game for 6 straight years. But he has, as best I can tell, not won a single signature OOC game, has a poor MAC championship record and no NCAA or NIT postseason wins.

John Groce has consitently (too this point, including his time at Illinois) won big OOC games (or at Ohio was very competitive), is 2-0 in conference championship games and has 3 NCAA wins. But his teams (including Illinois) under perform during regular seasons, and not competing for regular season championships.

I agree with those who complain that Akron schedules a weak non-conference schedule. I don't know whether Dambrot is a good coach or not. I do know, as you write, he has not done much, short of regular season MAC wins, in terms of winning against quality out of conference opponents or post season wins. I don't know, but it would also appear, that major programs are not beating down Dambrot's door. Do they know something? Which is ironic, because, although the jury is still obviously out on this year, if JC does not make the NCAA tournament, and/or does not win a post season game, it would seem he would be starting to follow the same model as Dambrot. Would the same people here who slammed Dambrot in the past support JC?

You can say that Illinois has underperformed in conference, but they have a nineteen point win against Ohio State and a against Indiana, in a year in which Illinois was not expect to do anything. Would anyone really prefer to have a 12-2 MAC record with no signature wins to a 11-5 MAC record, and wins against Michigan, South Florida, and close losses against Louisville and North Carolina, and a win the previous year against Georgetown, and two MAC championships? Give me those results and an 11-5 MAC record. And as good as JC's MAC record is, it will mean nothing if he can't beat Akron. Hopefully, he will figure out a way to be them in the MAC tournament.


The thing, I dislike about this whole line of thinking is you make it sound like we had a choice whether to keep John Groce as our head coach...we didn't. We shouldn't be comparing to JC to JG.

The question is would any other coach have gotten more out of this team..this question will never be answered.

Generally, most coaches are evaluated after being able to recruit their players into their system. Let us not forget - no manner how much we like them - these players were recruited into John Groce's system to play his style of ball. It is really hard for me to be upset with a coach that is having a historic MAC season, when he is coaching players that he didn't even recruit.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 3/6/2013 4:31 PM
redrustler wrote:expand_more
Were the Giants the best team in the major leagues last year? Statistically, they were not a top ten team. But they were the best team when it counted.


So you just agreed with me. Just like the Giants could win the World Series without World Series talent, Ohio can make the Sweet 16 without having Top 16 talent.
Bhugh24
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Posted: 3/6/2013 4:35 PM
Thanks for responding, Redrustler.

I think I understand where you are coming from.

My thinking on the Dambrot/Groce comparison is that some people would say that John Groce's teams play up and down to competition - for every OSU/Indiana win, there is a bad loss to Northwestern and Iowa (at home). Or playing close to Louisville, but then losing to bad EMU/Toledo teams. Beating Michigan and coming close to UNC, but losing to Robert Morris. (I don't think South Florida is much of a signature win, they were equal-level squad last year).

So with Groce - even with talented players, you probably aren't going to win many conference championships (at least based on his track record, because he can't consistently get his teams to win all year) and will be hit or miss in conference tournaments.

Coach Dambrot - without any signature wins or NCAA, has his teams play at a excellent level all year and put themselves in a position to win regular season championships or tournament championships by always getting his teams to a championship game.

I think JC's record is more like Dambrot and that is actually a good thing. Why?

Because the goal is getting in position to get to NCAA and play in the NCAA. But once you get to the tournament championship games or in the NCAA tournament, its really a crap shoot/luck of draw/randomness on success. I think the coach has little affect on the results of those games.

I think JC is like Dambrot in this way, and that will mean we'll get many more chances at regular season championships, conference championship games and NCAA games - because he'll get us to those games.
OUVan
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Posted: 3/6/2013 4:55 PM
redrustler wrote:expand_more
The good coach changes his style to suit that team.


Sorry but that''s simply not true.  He may tweek it or use certain parts of it more but he starts implimenting his system at Day 1.  Why?  Because if he doesn't then the team is going to suffer for it long term. Next year's team will go through the same growing pains that this team has.   Christian's system is his system because he knows it and coaches it well.  Not ony that but his asistant coaches know it and know it well and can teach it.  Next year's team will be better for it because they've had an extra year in the system.   Roy Williams didn't arrive at UNC and leave Matt Dougherty's system in place because his players were familiar with it. He started teaching his system.  Coach K arrived at Duke and taught his system.   John Groce arrived in Athens and started teaching his system. Danny Nee...the same.   Christian isn't coaching just for this year. He's coaching for next year and the year after that.  T.J. Hall, Ricardo Johnson, Jon Smith,  Stevie Taylor, Nick Kellogg, Treg Setty, Kadeem Green and Javarez Willis will be much more comfortable in the system next year because of it.   And hopefully everything will click with this group this year...just like it has two of the last three years.   
Ohio69
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Posted: 3/6/2013 5:29 PM
OUVan wrote:expand_more
The good coach changes his style to suit that team.


Sorry but that''s simply not true.  He may tweek it or use certain parts of it more but he starts implimenting his system at Day 1.  Why?  Because if he doesn't then the team is going to suffer for it long term. Next year's team will go through the same growing pains that this team has.   Christian's system is his system because he knows it and coaches it well.  Not ony that but his asistant coaches know it and know it well and can teach it.  Next year's team will be better for it because they've had an extra year in the system.   Roy Williams didn't arrive at UNC and leave Matt Dougherty's system in place because his players were familiar with it. He started teaching his system.  Coach K arrived at Duke and taught his system.   John Groce arrived in Athens and started teaching his system. Danny Nee...the same.   Christian isn't coaching just for this year. He's coaching for next year and the year after that.  T.J. Hall, Ricardo Johnson, Jon Smith,  Stevie Taylor, Nick Kellogg, Treg Setty, Kadeem Green and Javarez Willis will be much more comfortable in the system next year because of it.   And hopefully everything will click with this group this year...just like it has two of the last three years.   


OUVan is correct.


JerseyArnie
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Posted: 3/6/2013 6:25 PM
Because the goal is getting in position to get to NCAA and play in the NCAA. But once you get to the tournament championship games or in the NCAA tournament, its really a crap shoot/luck of draw/randomness on success. I think the coach has little affect on the results of those games.

I disagree with you on this point. John Groce wins were based on more than the draw/randomness. As was Tony La Russa in baseball..  A good coach makes a huge difference in my opinion.
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Posted: 3/6/2013 6:45 PM
FORGET GROCE!! 

He is gone.  Left us for greener pastures.  Parlayed his success here into a better gig.  He took us to the Sweet Sixteen and then took the money and ran - quit.  He took a job that he would not have sniffed except for the sweet sixteen run because prior to that he had not accomplished enough to be considered for such a job (never even finished in the top 3 of the conference).

So the issue isn't Groce versus Christian.  We would all have liked Groce to stay.  But he didn't - and he wasn't going to.  Yes, we could have gone out and gotten an unproven assistant.  I can only imagine this board in that case.  Instead, we went out and hired a coach that has dominated this league.  In return, we have just won more games in conference than ever before.  We'll see what the future holds.

But this endless "well Groce would have..."  is ridiculous.  Who knows if he would have - he quit!  You all are talking about an old girlfriend that dumped you.  He dumped you.  Move on.
Last Edited: 3/6/2013 7:26:17 PM by cc-cat
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Posted: 3/6/2013 7:13 PM
cc cat wrote:expand_more
FORGET GROCE!! 

He is gone.  Left us for greener pastures.  Parlayed his success here into a better gig.  He took us to the Sweet Sixteen and then took the money and ran - quit.  He took a job that he would not have sniffed except for the sweet sixteen run because prior to that he had not accomplished enough to be considered for such a job (never even finished in the top 3 of the conference).

So the issue isn't Groce versus Christian.  We would all have liked Groce to stay.  But he didn't - and he wasn't going to.  Yes, we could have gone out and gotten an unproven assistant.  I can only imagine this board in that case.  Instead, we went out and hired a coach that has dominated this league.  In return, we have just won more games in conference than ever before.  We'll see what the future holds.

But this endless "well Groce would have..."  is ridiculous.  Who knows if he would have - he quit!  You all are talking about an old girlfriend that dumped you.  She dumped you.  Move on.


Touché and amen!!!!
west side cat
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Posted: 3/6/2013 7:25 PM
Thank you cc cat, and Jersie Arnie, LaRussa managed like CRAP in game 6 of the series two years ago and his PLAYERS bailed him out.   Damn that misplayed ball by Nelson Cruz......not that I'm a Rangers fan or anything.
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Posted: 3/6/2013 7:30 PM
Please keep coming with the argument that we were not 16 last year.   Oh, I'll concede that the pollsters never put us that high.  But that is opinion.  The only fact here is that we made the Sweet 16.

But you are correct in your opinions.  So, I guess that football did not beat Penn State last year.  Because surely our talent is not at the level to beat Penn State.

You people who are so damned certain that you're right--I'm enjoying pigsticking in the eye here.  At least I'll admit to what is a fact and that most of the arguments (excpet the extremes) here are plausible.  Those of you who are so sure that your opinions are correct are fun.

But wrong.


And, it would be nice of some of you 'certains' to address my question of why a better seaons than we've had should not have been expected from any team that 1) won a single NCAA tourney game last year and 2) returned essentially the whole team from last year, and 3) is mostly made up of jr's and seniors.
JSF
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Posted: 3/6/2013 7:32 PM
JerseyArnie wrote:expand_more
Objective models like the RPI and Sagarin would disagree.

So the RPI and Sagarin is objective, while the Coaches poll is not?


What  a bunch of horse sh*t

please, give me a break!



Only two reasonable explanations here:

1. You're trolling.
2. You're ignorant.

Which is it? Your extolling the magic of Tony La Russa has me leaning a particular way.

Last Edited: 3/6/2013 7:39:26 PM by JSF
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Posted: 3/6/2013 8:03 PM
Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Please keep coming with the argument that we were not 16 last year.


There is a difference between making the Sweet 16 and being one of the 16 best teams in the country, or even in the tournament. Being in the Sweet 16 LITERALLY MEANS that [you were either (a) a conference's automatic bid or (b) good enough to be selected as an at-large bid despite losing in your conference tournament] AND that you won your Round-of-64 and Round-of-32 games. Might we have been the 4th best team in the country last year? I don't personally think so, but in the championship tournament we only lost to UNC, who only lost to Kansas, who only lost to National Champion Kentucky. Of course, we might have only been the 61st best team in the tournament (leaving aside the "first 4" games), having only beat Michigan (who beat no one else) and South Florida (who only beat Temple). I don't think thats the case either. Short of a 64-team round robin, I don't know of a definitive way of saying that we were/were not one of the 16 best teams in the country last year, or in the tournament, but we were one of the last 16 teams in.

Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
And, it would be nice of some of you 'certains' to address my question of why a better seaons than we've had should not have been expected from any team that 1) won a single NCAA tourney game last year and 2) returned essentially the whole team from last year, and 3) is mostly made up of jr's and seniors.


Coaches change. Opponents change. Guys get hurt. And, yeah, our returners would be expected to improve RELATIVE TO THEIR QUALITY LAST YEAR. But you know what? The other team wants to win too. So they're going to try to do so, and they're going to watch tape of that explosive team that came out of no where to make the sweet16 and they're going to gameplan against them. And yes, their guys got better in the offseason too, again, relative to their quality last year.

But the question isn't whether "Player-X 2013" is better than "Player-X 2012". We'll assume that he is. The scenario is more on the order of this: "OHIO-Player-X 2012" was "a" better than "AKRON-Player-X 2012" If "OHIO-Player-X's" improvement works out to be "b", and if "AKRON-Player-X's" improvement works out to be "c", then the question becomes: Who is the better player in 2013, OHIO-Player-X or AKRON-Player-X.

To solve this, we'd use the equation: (OHIO-Player-X-2012 + "b") - (Akron-Player-X-2012 + "c")

(1) If that equation equals "a", then even though both players have improved, they still have a similar talent gap as before. (2) If that equation results in a number that is greater than "a", then the OHIO player has improved more than the Akron player. (3) If that equation results in a number that is less than "a" then the Akron player has improved more than the OHIO player. REMEMBER, IN ALL 3 SCENARIOS BOTH PLAYERS IMPROVED THEIR GAME ON 2012.


Or think of it another way. IF we say that last year's OHIO players were better than last year's AKRON players (including the influence of coaching), at what percentage of their optimal capacity (taking into account their best-possible hand-eye coordination, aerobic and anaeroboic training, muscle memory, mental processing, etc) were they playing, and at what percentage was Akron's guys playing at? Maybe we're both at 50% of max and each have a lot of room to improve. Or maybe they were at 50% and we were really firing on all cylinders and were playing at 95% of max. If its the second, then Akron's got more room to improve with maturity than we do. And thems the breaks.
Ozcat
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Posted: 3/6/2013 8:08 PM
Other facts, certain to drive Monroe crazy:

Illinois beat Gonzaga in Spokane. 
Illinois is not ranked. 
Gonzaga is ranked #1. 

HOW COULD THAT BE!
JerseyArnie
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Posted: 3/6/2013 8:14 PM
Wow! a road victory against a good team! Amazing, I did not know it was possible.
JerseyArnie
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Posted: 3/6/2013 8:18 PM
When I get on this board, it feels like an episode of the Twilight Zone!  F..ing amazing

Read em weep boys!

La Russa managed teams to six league championships and three World Series titles, and ranks third in all-time major league wins by a manager, behind Connie Mack and John McGraw.
JSF
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Posted: 3/6/2013 8:23 PM
Yeah, sticking around for 60 years or however long goes a long way to racking up career wins. He's also the guy who batted his pitcher 8th for no real reason, threw triple switches around like they were going out of style, and left the best hitter on the bench in the All-Star Game (with only home field advantage in the World Series at stake) because he wanted to save him for extra innings that never happened because, again, he left the planet's best baseball player on the bench.

He won three titles because he had awesome players and more than a little luck, not because he knew things nobody else did.

There are a lot of terrible managers who are high up on the all-time wins list (Dusty Baker! Bobby Valentine!). And that doesn't change the fact you argued the coaches poll is objective. The coaches poll!
Last Edited: 3/6/2013 8:30:23 PM by JSF
bornacatfan
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Posted: 3/6/2013 8:59 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
Yeah, sticking around for 60 years or however long goes a long way to racking up career wins.


The man is only 68. He played till `77 and got a law degree. I remember when he took over the Chisox in 79 which i think was his first gig.

All the rest of what you say may be true but I felt compelled to reign you in with your liberal use of embellishment as a tool.

I am not sure in comparison to Sparky, Torre. Lasorda or even any active managers how his ascent to where he is in 34 years places him but I do know you are significantly  closer to 34 than 60....a d implying that he got his first team when he was still playing Babe Ruth is a bit of a stretch
Last Edited: 3/6/2013 9:00:21 PM by bornacatfan
JSF
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Posted: 3/6/2013 9:05 PM
Can one conservatively embellish? Discuss.
bornacatfan
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Posted: 3/6/2013 9:15 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
Can one conservatively embellish? Discuss.


You are not bringing much to the table.
JSF
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Posted: 3/6/2013 9:24 PM
bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
Can one conservatively embellish? Discuss.


You are not bringing much to the table.


Yes, I know you think that. What else is new?
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