Less important to who? In what ways? What is becoming more important about AAU/non-school programs?
In many instances college recruiters are in communication with the AAU coaches and not the HS coaches. One of the big criticisms of Gary Williams at Maryland was that he wouldn't deal with Curtis Malone who ran the DC Assault AAU program around here. He worked with their HS coaches but it was Malone who was ultimately influencing (and in several highly publicized cases making the decision) where the kids ended up.
I agree with the premise Van but that Assult program is rife with problem children and good kids as well. If you had the time to go through and look at the individuals I would bet looking at say....Mike beasley and his background vs Keith Bogans and his background you would see that the HS coaches of the kids who were high character guys and team players were nurtured by their HS programs. That 07 version of the Assult was one of the most suspect AAU teams I hae ever seen...they made D1 Greyhounds look a bit like choirboys. In a year with JJ Hixson and WorldWide Renegades, Oakland Soldiers in their Camo Unis, Eric Gordon and Derrick Rose playing together on Chicago Meanstreets the Assult was the one that fought within themselves, showed out with cutesy plays that blew up in their face and had the most audacious behaviours in pregame. I long suspected they probably had the most non qualifiers of anyone on the cicuit that year. Pretty wild when you look at behaviours in the 07 class ranging from Kevin Love to OJ Mayo (who was older than Greg Oden BTW).
While I agree with you that the DC area is building up AAU, I do not think the wealth of schools that are turning out great kids ranging from Dematha to a number of others (and no I am not a fan of Oak Hill as I neer thought they should be counted as a true HS)is still the place where kids are nurtured and taught the game the right way.
OUCountry.....If you do not follow HS nationwide one of the best places to learn is to just look at the USA today daily and skim the scores. They historically have had state by state summaries that you will see the dominant program names pop up regualrly.