If you look at Saul Phillip's record as a head coach, he has some bad years in there. 11-18 (year after an NCAA appearance), 14-15, 16-13, 17-4. Then his other 3 years have 24+ wins and postseason appearances. He appears to be a "high variance" coach. If the right guys are there, he's gotten everything to click. But the rebuilding years have gotten rough.
I'm hoping for more of his 26-6 type years and not many of those 11-18 ones. We'll see.
I don't think that's what I see. I see it as a coach taking over a team loaded with Senior talent (5 Seniors, 4 starters) and riding the wave built by his predecessor and then the steady build after that group left. I don't see it as a variance as much as I do a steady climb by building the program with his players.
NDSU fan here - was checking up on Ohio to see how the season goes and noticed how bad it was, and was looking for a message board to read any fan thoughts.
This is the most accurate assessment of Saul at NDSU. IMO he had no business getting the HC job as he was inexperienced in general, but those seniors fought for him. His first year 2 years with this junior-senior group was really an anamoly. NDSU was never good in bball, made the jump to D1, Tim Miles (Nebraskatball), great coach that gave NDSU a solid foundation, miraculously hits on a recruiting class that redshirted their freshman season(for their senior (RS) - tourney eligible run and proceeded to beat the regular team in practice every day). Miles leaves, Saul is gifted with the position, and did a great job managing those guys and brought them through their tourney run. 3 of those players I believe graduated with top 10 all time scoring honors at NDSU.
WHen they graduated, NDSU had no talent. There wasn't anything to sell to the 2-3 recruiting classes after that group because NDSU never did anything yet. Not liking the hire of Saul, he did a great job these years managing a D2 roster in D1 and building the program back up to those 20+ win seasons - but it did really take him about 2-3 years to get his players in place. His last 3 seasons here, and the team we beat Oklahoma with, was a legit team, and they looked like a WIsconsin type - long and athletic, really stingy defense, good shooters, slow tempo (which I hated but whatever), and NDSU was able to control tempo in every game really, win or lose.
JMHO on Saul - Great recruiter, great program seller. Really really good coach in terms of building a solid foundation and running a specific style. Not a great in game X's and O's coach. Not really a great coach at all in terms of disciplining kids, dealing with attitudes, etc. His recruiting will negate the majority of that, so I can see now why it might be a struggling year for him with guys he didn't recruit and may test him and he may not deal with it the best.
I think in a couple years you will see a specific type of culture with Saul. I turned out to really like him because the biggest thing he did with NDSU is gave them an identity and it stuck. Other teams hated playing us because of our style. Honestly, it isn't the prettiest to watch (we had athletes that could run people out of the gym but never played that way) the offense is very lethargic and slow and controlled, but you will love the defense he will bring when he gets guys that wants to play his way. It will keep you in every game and give you a chance against better teams as well.
I'm curious to see what Ohio will be like in 2-3 years - Saul will be able to recruit better talent there. His last 3 years at NDSU he brought some major talent in, we had a mix of snipers, athletic freaks, a true big man, and a long and rangy absolute stud wing. He recruited a wing to replace him which is now a rs freshman averaging 11.5 ppg and will be great, and our SR PG who will go down as the best ever at NDSU and lead our skeleton rebuilding team that was picked to finish 6th in the conference to a shared leage championship and POY honors. I know you don't care about NDSU but I don't think with Saul it will be a lot of rebuilding years, I think once the program is built up it will stay consistent. Phillips is more of a program builder than a natural head coach. He's not going to make chicken soup out of chicken chit, but he will solidify the program and give it an identity that will be consistent.