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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: MAC Standings: The Race for the Top 4
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Eagle66
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Posted: 2/29/2016 11:39 AM
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The simulator linked above does not break 4 or more way ties correctly. I used it for a basis, and then broke the 4 or more ties myself. So there could be some human error, so don't take it as 100% accurate as I may have missed some possibilities... but here's what I've come up with for each scenario. The first line is assuming the favorites on the simulator win each game (Chalk being all home teams except UB wins @ BG, UT wins @ WMU, and BSU wins @ NIU). The next lines are what would need to change for Ohio to finish with another seed. There are still a lot of what ifs...

I appologize in advance if this is confusing.

Ohio wins both (12-6) wrote:expand_more
Chalk Seed: #1 - Tied for #1 with Akron & BSU. Ohio wins 3 team tie breaker, Akron beats BSU for #2.

Finish 2nd: If Ball State were to lose either of of their final games, Akron would be #1, Ohio #2. Options:
- Assuming the tie breakers on the MAC web page are still accurate, and two teams tied for the division lead are broken by division record. Akron would have no more than 4 losses in the east.
- If BSU loses to CMU, UB would finish 3, CMU 4. Neither Akron or Ohio lost to UB, so you'd go to #4 with Akron beating CMU, Ohio losing.
- If BSU loses to MIU, UB would finish 3, BSU 5 and CMU 5. Neither Akron or Ohio lost to UB or BSU, so you'd go to #5 with Akron beating CMU, Ohio losing.
Ohio loses Akron, Beats Miami (11-7) wrote:expand_more
Chalk Seed: #3 - Tied for #3 with UB, Ohio wins tie breaker. If Kent beats Akron, we win a 3 way time with them and UB (Ohio 3-1, UB 2-2, Kent 1-3)

Finish 2nd: Ball State would finish one game up if they win out, so Ohio would need them to lose atleast 1 game. Options:
- NIU beats BSU - Ohio wins 3 team tie breaker with BSU & UB
- CMU beats BSU - Ohio wins 4 team tie with CMU, BSU & UB.
- CMU & NIU beat BSU - Ohio wins 3 team tie breaker with CMU & UB
Ohio beats Akron, Loses Miami (11-7) wrote:expand_more
Chalk Seed: #3 - Tied for #3 with UB, Ohio wins tie breaker.

Finish 1st:
- Kent beats Akron & NIU beats BSU. Ohio would win a 5 team tie breaker with Akron, Kent, UB & BSU for the #1 seed.
- Kent beats Akron & CMU beats BSU. Ohio would win a 6 team tie breaker with Akron, Kent, UB, CMU & BSU for the #1 seed.

Finish 2nd: Akron & Ball State would finish one game up if they win out, so Ohio would need one / both of them them to lose atleast 1 game. Options:
- NIU to beats BSU. - Ohio wins 3 team tie breaker with BSU & UB
- CMU to beats BSU. - Ohio wins 4 team tie with CMU, BSU & UB.
- CMU & NIU beat BSU - Ohio wins 3 team tie breaker with CMU & UB.
- Kent Beats Akron - Ohio wins 4 team tie with Akron, Kent & UB
- Kent beats Akron & CMU beats BSU. CMU would win the 6 team tie breaker for #1, Ohio would win 5 team tie breaker with Akron, Kent, UB & BSU.
Ohio loses both (10-8) wrote:expand_more
Chalk Seed: #5 - Tied for #4 with CMU, Toledo & Kent. CMU wins 4 team tie breaker, Ohio wins 3 team, Kent beat Toledo.

Finish 2nd: Ohio would finish 2 games back if BSU & 1 back of UB. Options:
- CMU & NIU beat BSU, WMU beats CMU, Miami beats UB - Ohio wins 6 team tie breaker with CMU, UB, Kent, UT & BSU
- CMU & NIU beat BSU, WMU beats CMU, BG beats UB - Ohio wins 6 team tie breaker with CMU, UB, Kent, UT & BSU

Finish 3rd: Ohio would finish 2 games back if BSU & 1 back of UB.
- I could not find an option to have Ohio finish 3rd.

Finish 4th: Ohio would finish 2 games back if BSU & 1 back of UB. Options:
- CMU & NIU beat BSU, WMU beats CMU - CMU wins 5 team tie breaker for #3, but Ohio would then win 3 team tie breaker with Kent, UT & BSU for #4
- Miami beats UB - CMU wins 5 team tie breaker for #3, but Ohio would then win 4 team tie breaker with Kent, UT & UB for #4
- BG beats UB - CMU wins 5 team tie breaker for #3, but Ohio would then win 4 team tie breaker with Kent, UT & UB for #4

Finish 5th: Akron UB & BSU finish 1-3.
- Kent beats Akron, BG beats Kent - CMU wins the 4 team tie breaker for #4, Ohio wins 3 way tie with Kent and Toledo for #5.

Finish 6th: Akron UB & BSU finish 1-3.
- NIU beats BSU & EMU - CMU wins the 5 team tie breaker for #4, NIU wins the 4 team tie for #5, Ohio wins the 3 team tie with Kent & UT for #6.
- EMU beats UT - CMU wins 3 team tie breaker for #4, Kent wint #5 (beat Akron Ohio did not), Ohio gets #6
- WMU beats UT - CMU wins 3 team tie breaker for #4, Kent wint #5 (beat Akron Ohio did not), Ohio gets #6
- Kent beats Akron - CMU wins 3 team tie for #5, Ohio beat UT for #6

Finish 7th: Akron UB & BSU finish 1-3
- NIU beats BSU & EMU, EMU beats UT - CMU wins the 4 team tie breaker for #4, Kent wins the 3 team for #5, NIU would be #6 (beat Akron Ohio did not), and Ohio would be #7.
Last Edited: 2/29/2016 11:42:09 AM by Eagle66
OUVan
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Posted: 2/29/2016 12:42 PM
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Danny's Knee wrote:expand_more
http://www.playoffsimulator.com /

This was posted on the MAC board and is a pretty cool tool. It breaks down if more than 4 teams are tied however.
welcome to the board OUVan !!
LOL, my bad.
Danny's Knee
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Posted: 2/29/2016 1:09 PM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
http://www.playoffsimulator.com /

This was posted on the MAC board and is a pretty cool tool. It breaks down if more than 4 teams are tied however.
welcome to the board OUVan !!
LOL, my bad.
BANG !! .. Oh BABY what BIG TIME hilarity !!
OU_Country
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Posted: 3/1/2016 9:26 PM
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I think, with UB and Ball losing, 'Cats need just one of the next two to clinch 2/3 seed. At this rate, it's appearing at Miami is a must win.
shabamon
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Posted: 3/1/2016 9:56 PM
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Is there any possible way for Buffalo to pass us?
lovebobcat
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Posted: 3/1/2016 10:14 PM
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I would love it if somebody produced a scenario for each possible outcome! But maybe there are just too many damn possibilities to do that. This is kinda nuts.

Beat Miami.
shabamon
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Posted: 3/1/2016 10:36 PM
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shabamon wrote:expand_more
Is there any possible way for Buffalo to pass us?
There is no way for Buffalo to pass us.
Last Edited: 3/1/2016 10:52:31 PM by shabamon
OU_Country
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Posted: 3/1/2016 11:38 PM
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Beat Miami, get Top 4 seed, I think even Top 3 seed. Simple as that, right? I'm not sure about the tie-breakers between Ohio & Kent, and Ohio & Balls though. UB we know about. CMU I think holds tie-breakers over Ohio, right?
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Posted: 3/1/2016 11:46 PM
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Quick read IF Akron beats Kent then the following. We beat Miami and cmu wins we get 3 seed. Beat Miami and CMS loses we get 2 seed. Lose to Miami and most likely 5 or 6 seed. With 6 most likely. A Kent win could send us to 5 seed even if we win. We must beat Miami and ugh probably root for Akron.
Last Edited: 3/1/2016 11:56:33 PM by cc-cat
shabamon
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Posted: 3/2/2016 8:17 AM
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If we lose to Miami, we need to pull for at least one of CMU, Balls, or Kent to lose. If it's anyone but Ball State, a Buffalo win over BG would help us tremendously.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/2/2016 8:19 AM
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cc-cat wrote:expand_more
Lose to Miami and most likely 5 or 6 seed. With 6 most likely. A Kent win could send us to 5 seed even if we win. We must beat Miami and ugh probably root for Akron.
Maybe I am missing something, but I see it as if Akron beats Kent OR NIU beats Ball State, we get a 4 seed even if we lose to Miami.

Akron & CMU would be ahead of us regardless.
Buffalo is a game behind and we hold a tiebreaker, so we are guaranteed top 5.
If Ball St loses, we are tied and hold the tiebreaker.
If Kent loses, we are tied and hold the tiebreaker.
If any form of Ohio/BSU/Kent/Buffalo has a multi-way tie, we would win the tiebreaker.

Again, I could be missing something given that Akron will be favored vs Kent, and NIU may be favored vs BSU, the odds are very much in our favor to get a 1st round bye even if we lose.
shabamon
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Posted: 3/2/2016 8:35 AM
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Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Lose to Miami and most likely 5 or 6 seed. With 6 most likely. A Kent win could send us to 5 seed even if we win. We must beat Miami and ugh probably root for Akron.
Maybe I am missing something, but I see it as if Akron beats Kent OR NIU beats Ball State, we get a 4 seed even if we lose to Miami.

Akron & CMU would be ahead of us regardless.
Buffalo is a game behind and we hold a tiebreaker, so we are guaranteed top 5.
If Ball St loses, we are tied and hold the tiebreaker.
If Kent loses, we are tied and hold the tiebreaker.
If any form of Ohio/BSU/Kent/Buffalo has a multi-way tie, we would win the tiebreaker.

Again, I could be missing something given that Akron will be favored vs Kent, and NIU may be favored vs BSU, the odds are very much in our favor to get a 1st round bye even if we lose.
How do we hold a tiebreaker vs. Kent alone? They have a better division record than us.
OUVan
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Posted: 3/2/2016 9:02 AM
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shabamon wrote:expand_more
How do we hold a tiebreaker vs. Kent alone? They have a better division record than us.
We don't. If we end up in a tie with them alone we lose.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/2/2016 9:41 AM
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OK, that is what I had wrong we don't win a straight up tiebreaker with Kent, but I think we'd be not be last in most multi-team tiebreakers that involve Kent.

I think the point remains that if Ball State loses, we get the bye even if we lose to Miami. That helps. Normally I wouldn't be scared of a 5/12 game but Miami & WMU have proven to be pesky of late. Just beating Miami remains the preferred method.
Eagle66
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Posted: 3/2/2016 11:23 AM
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shabamon wrote:expand_more
How do we hold a tiebreaker vs. Kent alone? They have a better division record than us.
The division record is only used when breaking a tie for the division champ. Otherwise it's skipped. Kent would still hold a two team tie breaker by virtue of beating Akron though.



The only teams that can finish tied with Ohio are Central Michigan, Ball State, Kent State and Buffalo. Ohio wins the head to head with Buffalo and Ball State (head to head wins). Ohio loses the head to head tiebreakers with CMU (Head to head) and Kent (head to head ties, so it goes to #1 down, and they beat Akron).


Ohio beats Miami wrote:expand_more
If Ohio beats Miami, they clinch at least the #3 seed.

Ohio would get the #2 Seed if WMU beats CMU. The head to head tie breaker over Ball State, makes that game moot.
Ohio loses at Miami wrote:expand_more
The seed range opens up if Ohio loses to anywhere from 2 to 5. There would be 16 scenarios to affect Ohio's seeding at this point. That's too many to post, but the only scenarios I see where Ohio doesnt get a bye are:

Ohio gets #5 Seed if:
1) BG beats UB, CMU beats WMU, BSU beats NIU & Akron beats Kent = Tied for fourth with Kent. Kent wins the tie breaker based on their victory over #1 Akron, so Ohio would be #5..
2) UB beats BG, CMU beats WMU, BSU beats NIU & Kent beats Akron = Tie for 5th with Buffalo. Ohio gets #5 based on head to head tie breaker.

Both of those scenarios have Ohio hosting #12 Bowling Green in the first round.

EDIT: Ohio could also get the #2 Seed if Miami beats Ohio, WMU beats CMU, Buffalo beats BG, NIU beats BSU & Kent beats Akron. This would result in a 5 Way tie for second with Kent, CMU, Buffalo and Ball State. Ohio at 5-2 has the best record against tied teams.
Last Edited: 3/2/2016 11:25:49 AM by Eagle66
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Posted: 3/2/2016 11:24 AM
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The way the full seeding is at the moment:

1. Akron (clinched)
2. CMU (Wins tiebreaker vs Ohio, Kent & BSU)
3. OHIO (Wins tiebreaker vs Kent & BSU
4. Kent (Wins tiebreaker vs BSU)
5. BSU
6. Buffalo
7. NIU (Wins tiebreaker vs EMU & Toledo)
8. EMU (Wins tiebreaker vs Toledo)
9. Toledo
10. Fiami (Wins tiebreaker vs WMU)
11. WMU
12. BG
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Posted: 3/2/2016 11:49 AM
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EDIT: Ohio could also get the #2 Seed if Miami beats Ohio, WMU beats CMU, Buffalo beats BG, NIU beats BSU & Kent beats Akron. This would result in a 5 Way tie for second with Kent, CMU, Buffalo and Ball State. Ohio at 5-2 has the best record against tied teams.

Eagle, we can lose and get #2 seed?
Eagle66
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Posted: 3/2/2016 12:02 PM
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cc-cat wrote:expand_more
EDIT: Ohio could also get the #2 Seed if Miami beats Ohio, WMU beats CMU, Buffalo beats BG, NIU beats BSU & Kent beats Akron. This would result in a 5 Way tie for second with Kent, CMU, Buffalo and Ball State. Ohio at 5-2 has the best record against tied teams.

Eagle, we can lose and get #2 seed?
Yup. If all those games break that way it would be a 5 way tie for second at 10-8. Combined records among tied teams would be:

Ohio 5-2
Kent 4-2
CMU 3-2
Buffalo 2-4
Ball 1-5
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Posted: 3/3/2016 9:37 AM
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Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 3/3/2016 9:51 AM
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I'm gonna Debbie Downer all this.

This is one of those situations where it doesn't really make sense to try to map it all out.

(I just realized that read like a fortune cookie paper at my newly invented restaurant, Kung Pao Gasol.)

It's going to all play out whether I know all the scenarios or instead contemplate why our bricks are better than their bricks.

If it were a situation where a win over Miami had no bearing, maybe you think about expanding the rotation and resting legs a few extra minutes. That's not the case. No matter what, Ohio needs to win from both a seeding standpoint and a momentum standpoint. Don't want to go into the tournament to have the second half surge undermined by two straight losses to your two biggest hoops rivals in the conference.
Last Edited: 3/3/2016 9:56:25 AM by Brian Smith (No, not that one)
BOBCATBEN
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Posted: 3/3/2016 10:49 AM
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Why would Kent be ahead of us if both teams win tomorrow (per Arkley)? At first I thought the answer was because their win(s) vs the highest seed Akron. However if this was indeed the case why wouldn't Kent be ahead of us right now? 1-0/0-2 vs Akron. Both teams are 0-1 vs CMU next would be BSU/Buff which OU would win over Kent 2-0/1-0 BSU 2-0/0-2 Buff. Can someone please explain this?
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Posted: 3/3/2016 11:21 AM
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My best guess...

Ohio wins at Miami

CMU beats WMU

Ball loses at NIU

Kent loses at Akron

UB beats BG

2. CMU 11-7
3. Ohio 11-7
4. Buffalo 10-8
5. Kent 10-8
6. Ball St. 10-8

Also think this is the ideal situation...Ohio avoids UB, Kent or Akron until the final. They would (possibly) get Ball in Q'finals...a team they've played well against. CMU is a wildcard....they way they shoot 3 and the way Ohio defends it....that's a challenging game to say the least. But let's be honest....every game will be a challenge in Cleveland.....just hope Saul's troops are up for it
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Posted: 3/3/2016 11:32 AM
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BOBCATBEN wrote:expand_more
Why would Kent be ahead of us if both teams win tomorrow (per Arkley)? At first I thought the answer was because their win(s) vs the highest seed Akron. However if this was indeed the case why wouldn't Kent be ahead of us right now? 1-0/0-2 vs Akron. Both teams are 0-1 vs CMU next would be BSU/Buff which OU would win over Kent 2-0/1-0 BSU 2-0/0-2 Buff. Can someone please explain this?
Currently, there is a four-way tie for second between CMU, Ohio, Kent State and Ball State. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head games, which stands at:
CMU 3-1
Ohio 3-2
Kent 2-2
Ball State 1-4

So if all of these teams remain tied, Ohio will stay ahead of Kent. But if only Ohio and Kent State are tied, Kent State gets the tiebreaker because it is 1-1 in the series and then the next tiebreaker goes to Kent because it has a win against #1 Akron. Same applies if CMU, Ohio and Kent State are tied. But throw Ball State into the tie and Ohio moves ahead of Kent. Throw Buffalo into the tie and Ohio moves ahead of both Kent and CMU.
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Posted: 3/3/2016 11:32 AM
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General view is we want a bye to Cleveland AND want to be on the opposite side of the bracket as Akron (hence be a 2 or 3 seed). Also agree that we need to beat Miami for momentum (and because it is Miami). So let's only approach Friday with a "what happens if we win..." overview.

We are currently tied with Central, Kent, and Ball. So with a win at Miami there appears to be only one scenario that blocks us from being a 2 or 3 seed. If Ohio, Central and Kent win, and Ball loses, we drop to the 4 seed.

If we win, any other combination of wins or loses by Central, Kent and Ball makes us a 2 or 3 seed.

BShot - agree -- An Ohio win with Kent and Ball losses sets up the best tourney bracket for us.
Last Edited: 3/3/2016 11:46:12 AM by cc-cat
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Posted: 3/3/2016 11:37 AM
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bshot44, I like your "best guess", but for some reason I think Ball might take NIU on the road. I agree with the idea of getting into the best bracket but at this point in the season I think every game is going to be a struggle. This would be a good tourney to take time to watch all the games, because I think there will be some real battles every time they throw up the ball. Go Cats ! Defend, Rebound, take good shots !
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