Tom,
This is an interesting view. I've always wondered what BA'ers expectations of Ohio are. Maybe I'll borrow/modify this grid and this can be a June topic on our message board. But getting back to Illinois, what do you think the grid should look like?
I don't think the grid is terribly unrealistic. Basically, the fan wants to be in Top 10 once in 8 years, Top 20 3 (including the Top 10 year) out of 8 years, Top 50 in 7 of 8 years and below Top 50 1 of 8 years. Maybe you slide those numbers down one year. It wouldn't be crazy to expect Top 20 two times in 8 years and Top 50 in 6 of 8 years.
I just took a couple of quotes from the thread entitled "Where does the Illinois program Belong?"
In my eyes ....and I have only been around Illinois hoops and their alums/fans since I was living in Chicago in the 70's... They are not an elite program even in the BIG (no longer 10) but there are only 68 spots. If you are not one of the top programs in the conference year in and year out thinking that being a bubble team is a failure is ludicrous. I remember my Pops pulling out a scouting report when Tommy was about 10 and showing him what he was looking for when sizing up an opponent. It was one he prepared for Rupp around 1958 when Illinois and UK played. I did not have the impression that Illinois was a power even back then....though the coach at the time took them to 3 FF in his tenure.
There are increasing pressures on the P5 teams to turn out staying power year after year. Staying top 5 in their conference is tough (unless you are Kansas, UK, Duke or NC) OTOH there are teams like Northwestern, Ga Tech, Seton Hall that are perennial doormats.
Realistically I think Illinois could be pretty good hangind around 4th or 5th in the conference most years. I think advancing in the tourney every decade or so is realistic.
I do think Groce believed he could crack the Chicago nut...he ran into counter intention because he was white and the CPS initially wanted a black coach. He got smacked by roster imbalances that were present from Weber's crummy recruiting and the program was a bit broken. As he missed on recruits like Brunson, Ullis, Cliff Alexander, C Bragg that he had great relationships with he scrambled for transfers. Injuries piled on that. I think he has the chops to succeed but may not have the willingness or morals/ethics to do what it takes to get a Cliff Alexander or Brunson to his program. The Chicago guys seem to want paid and I am not sure Illinois can withstand the scrutiny of the NCAA to pull that one off.
Illinois should be able to compete with the Oklahome States, Cal Bears, Washingtons and similar. They are not a NC, UK, KU type Blue Blood. Conversely GOnzaga,and formerly Butler now Valpo in the mids have a better chance of dominating a conference and getting to the dance if they build the program and find the coach who will stay and dominate the local mid major landscape.
IMHO Dayton has as much or more place in college basketball that Illinois. They are in a conference they can be competitive in year in and year out now that X has left. THey have FF resume and a rich history with an avid fanbase in place. I am biased as I was able to grow up around Coach Frericks and then Coach Donoher and watch Donnie May as a kid. There is a rich history of programs vying for repeat performances in the NCAA dance. Look how long it has been for Villanova to be in a position to get back following Massamino's run. Illinois does not see how rich and wide the college basketball landscape is for those 80 or 90 programs that are constantly knocking on the door.
I think a good summer topic would be to put a similar thread up there and see what shakes out. 69 has already started.