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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: MAC Tournament Seeding Simulator
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Bobcat110
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Bobcat110
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Posted: 2/28/2017 9:30 PM
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Danny's Knee wrote:expand_more
Could realistically have 5 teams with 11-7 records after Friday night: Ohio/WMU/Ball/Kent/Buff

Ball State winning Friday at home vs NIU helps us on all tiebreaker scenarios...

NIU upsetting WMU tonight would be nice help.

Kent beating Akron could put them in #2 and us in #3, which would move Buffalo to #4. Might be best option now, although we could end up #2 with Kent loss, but then get Buffalo in Semi's. (again assuming Ball St beats NIU)
sure would be nice if the simulator was updated
What do you need updated? You know the results of last weekend and tonite so far. If you enter those results, then you can play with the unknown results for Friday and tonight's WMU/Ball game.
OU_Country
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Posted: 3/1/2017 12:31 AM
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Bobcat110 wrote:expand_more
Could realistically have 5 teams with 11-7 records after Friday night: Ohio/WMU/Ball/Kent/Buff

Ball State winning Friday at home vs NIU helps us on all tiebreaker scenarios...

NIU upsetting WMU tonight would be nice help.

Kent beating Akron could put them in #2 and us in #3, which would move Buffalo to #4. Might be best option now, although we could end up #2 with Kent loss, but then get Buffalo in Semi's. (again assuming Ball St beats NIU)
sure would be nice if the simulator was updated
What do you need updated? You know the results of last weekend and tonite so far. If you enter those results, then you can play with the unknown results for Friday and tonight's WMU/Ball game.
Now is a moment when I need emoji's.


Simple scenario. Win Friday, get the bye to Cleveland.
DelBobcat
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Posted: 3/1/2017 9:10 AM
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Latest from Team Rankings. Chart has our probability of getting each seed, and our probability of winning the MAC tourney given each scenario.


Seed----Probability-----Win Odds
1-------0.0%------------0.0%
2-------68.1%-----------24.4%
3-------12.6%-----------26.9%
4-------10.2%-----------24.9%
5-------6.9%------------21.8%
6-------2.1%------------19.9%
Last Edited: 3/1/2017 9:12:41 AM by DelBobcat
Alan Swank
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Posted: 3/1/2017 9:13 AM
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Bobcat110 wrote:expand_more
Could realistically have 5 teams with 11-7 records after Friday night: Ohio/WMU/Ball/Kent/Buff

Ball State winning Friday at home vs NIU helps us on all tiebreaker scenarios...

NIU upsetting WMU tonight would be nice help.

Kent beating Akron could put them in #2 and us in #3, which would move Buffalo to #4. Might be best option now, although we could end up #2 with Kent loss, but then get Buffalo in Semi's. (again assuming Ball St beats NIU)
sure would be nice if the simulator was updated
What do you need updated? You know the results of last weekend and tonite so far. If you enter those results, then you can play with the unknown results for Friday and tonight's WMU/Ball game.
I think what he is saying it would be nice if whoever created the simulator would update that to reflect those games so that the only games you would need to play with would be this coming Friday's. Seems like a reasonable request.
Bobcat110
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Posted: 3/1/2017 10:34 AM
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Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
I think what he is saying it would be nice if whoever created the simulator would update that to reflect those games so that the only games you would need to play with would be this coming Friday's. Seems like a reasonable request.
Sure. It'd be nice and easier for everyone if the original creator has time to update. But just passing on that it's not hard and takes 30-45 seconds to update on your own by clicking on correct winners from last Fri/Sat games and last night. Once those are inputed, it retains them and you can play with the various outcome possibilities for Friday.

:-)
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 3/1/2017 11:03 AM
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Question: If we beat Miami and Kent beats Zippy, do we still get the bye?
OUVan
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Posted: 3/1/2017 11:17 AM
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Question: If we beat Miami and Kent beats Zippy, do we still get the bye?
Maybe. It depends on several other teams as well.

Edit: Thanks to Eagle66 who ran all the scenarios. Here is the only scenario where we win and don't get a bye.

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, WMU #3, Kent #4, Ohio #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2
- Ohio Kent & WMU Still tied. Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-2), WMU (2-1), Kent (1-2). WMU gets the #3.
- Head to head. Kent (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Kent Gets #4, Ohio #5
Last Edited: 3/1/2017 11:22:29 AM by OUVan
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 3/1/2017 11:35 AM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
. . .
- Head to head. Kent (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Kent Gets #4, Ohio #5
Thanks for all the details. My one remaining question: Why does Kent get the nod in this final head-to-head, since we split the series with them?
Eagle66
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Posted: 3/1/2017 12:10 PM
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
. . .
- Head to head. Kent (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Kent Gets #4, Ohio #5
Thanks for all the details. My one remaining question: Why does Kent get the nod in this final head-to-head, since we split the series with them?
Assuming I did the calculations correctly (big assumption at 11 PM on a Tuesday), Since we split with Kent, it would go top to bottom. In this scenario theyd be 2-0 against Akron, Ohio would be 1-1.
Eagle66
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Posted: 3/1/2017 12:42 PM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
Question: If we beat Miami and Kent beats Zippy, do we still get the bye?
Maybe. It depends on several other teams as well.

Edit: Thanks to Eagle66 who ran all the scenarios. Here is the only scenario where we win and don't get a bye.

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, WMU #3, Kent #4, Ohio #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2
- Ohio Kent & WMU Still tied. Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-2), WMU (2-1), Kent (1-2). WMU gets the #3.
- Head to head. Kent (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Kent Gets #4, Ohio #5
I got a response from JGuy via twitter, that showed me how I broke this tie wrong. Updated it on the scenario thread, and below:

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, Ohio #3, WMU #4, Kent #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2, Kent gets #5
- Ohio & WMU Still tied. Head to head. WMU (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Ohio 1-1 vs Akron, WMU 0-1. Ohio Gets #3, WMU #4
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 3/1/2017 8:32 PM
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Eagle66 wrote:expand_more
Question: If we beat Miami and Kent beats Zippy, do we still get the bye?
Maybe. It depends on several other teams as well.

Edit: Thanks to Eagle66 who ran all the scenarios. Here is the only scenario where we win and don't get a bye.

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, WMU #3, Kent #4, Ohio #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2
- Ohio Kent & WMU Still tied. Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-2), WMU (2-1), Kent (1-2). WMU gets the #3.
- Head to head. Kent (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Kent Gets #4, Ohio #5
I got a response from JGuy via twitter, that showed me how I broke this tie wrong. Updated it on the scenario thread, and below:

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, Ohio #3, WMU #4, Kent #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2, Kent gets #5
- Ohio & WMU Still tied. Head to head. WMU (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Ohio 1-1 vs Akron, WMU 0-1. Ohio Gets #3, WMU #4
So, bottom line, we win and we're in the top 4 and get a bye, right?
Eagle66
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Posted: 3/2/2017 7:51 AM
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Question: If we beat Miami and Kent beats Zippy, do we still get the bye?
Maybe. It depends on several other teams as well.

Edit: Thanks to Eagle66 who ran all the scenarios. Here is the only scenario where we win and don't get a bye.

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, WMU #3, Kent #4, Ohio #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2
- Ohio Kent & WMU Still tied. Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-2), WMU (2-1), Kent (1-2). WMU gets the #3.
- Head to head. Kent (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Kent Gets #4, Ohio #5
I got a response from JGuy via twitter, that showed me how I broke this tie wrong. Updated it on the scenario thread, and below:

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, Ohio #3, WMU #4, Kent #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2, Kent gets #5
- Ohio & WMU Still tied. Head to head. WMU (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Ohio 1-1 vs Akron, WMU 0-1. Ohio Gets #3, WMU #4
So, bottom line, we win and we're in the top 4 and get a bye, right?
I believe thats correct. I don't think Ohio can not finish lower than #3 with a win.
100%Cat
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Posted: 3/2/2017 8:30 AM
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Really shocking, to me, is seeing what has happened up in Kalamazoo. They were on the bottom of the conference, literally, and I remember how badly it stung when we blew a huge lead at their place. Now, they are by far the hottest team in the MAC and in position for a bye to Cleveland. Pretty amazing stuff.
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