Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
3/22/2023 6:39 PM
So far, the available data on the transfer portal doesn't really support the idea that non-P5 teams are just the minor leagues for P5 conferences. It seems like an accepted fact for a lot here. I'm not there yet.
Is there nuanced data at 247, verbalcommmits, etc to make detailed conclusions like this? Genuinely want to know... there are some scenarios I'd be interested in running when the smoke clears (percentage of transfers who moved to a higher NET conference, etc)
I haven't seen the raw data, but shared this in another thread somewhere. Hard to believe, but the transfer portal thing has come up before on Bobcatattack.com.
Here's an interesting link:
https://www.sportico.com/leagues/college-sports/2021/coll... /
A few interesting things (assuming I'm interpreting this right):
1) Transfers were already way up before the new transfer rule. They rose 76% between 2012 and 2020.
2) Only 19% of transfers were "upward" -- meaning that a player moved from a mid-major or lower to a P5 school. Of that 19%, only 52 players (3.5% of transfers) moved from a mid-major to a P5 school.
3) More P5 players transferred to mid-majors than vice versa.
4) The largest group of transfers are "downward"
5) College athletes transfer at a much lower rate than college students in general. But only college athletes get accused of not caring about academics when they do it.
The link doesn't have data on this, but also very curious to know of the 52 players who transferred up from mid-major to P5, how many would have exhausted their eligibility without the Covid year. Worth remembering that we lost BVP, but without Covid he just graduates and that's that. I suspect that 52 number may actually be a little inflated as a result.
Edit: Realized that by the above link's definition, we're not a mid-major and are in the "other D1 schools group" -- they define mid-major as non P5 schools that had multiple NCAA tournament bids within the last 5 years. MAC doesn't qualify.
Last Edited: 3/22/2023 6:51:01 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame