Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Official Game 14 Thread: Buffalo
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M.D.W.S.T
1/9/2025 9:24 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Agree with this, I was actually thinking the same last night as it relates to Elmore. Much more often than not, he's going to try and muscle his way to the basket over kicking it out or dumping it off.
I don't think this is Elmore's fault, and it seems to be the case across the board (with the exception of Pavs).

Our offense is pretty stagnant. It seems like a ton of possessions involve one action, and then basically no secondary movement There were several possessions where AJB/Elmore got into the lane, ran into the help defender, and turned and looked for a pass only to find 4 out and no movement. Those possessions resulted in a bunch of 8-10 foot fall away jump shots.

Pavs is a really, really good passer and seems to make something of those possessions more often than others, but nobody slashes/rolls to the rim on penetration and the ballhandler ends up on an island.
The offense can be stagnant for sure. However, Elmore only trails AJB and Hadaway by 6 and 10 shot attempts on the year; while starting two less games. He also has less assists on the year than every other starter besides AJB (by 1) and both Reef/Sheldon for that matter.

He averages 7.3 FGA. Going of that, he'd be third on the team in FGA's if he were to have started each game this season -- with the lowest shooting %.

It's an offensive scheme issue, but I do think Elmore is more prone to shoot rather than not.
Agreed on all sides.

We still seem to be figuring it out. Which is my only real takeaway from this early season so far. I love Boals, but I don't think we had a great gameplan to figure it out in the non-con. I think he got nervous about the early losses and started shifting into we have to win now to quiet the noise, rather than using those games as a sort of scrimmage, digging into the bench, messing with the line-ups, running different sets to see what our bread and butter can be.

I'm still of the belief we do figure it out, but Akron is coming quickly. That will be the first true test of where we stand.

Reef has been relegated to 6th man and currently has the lowest 3 point % of his career. That's tough. We need him. We're going to need him to be a factor.

Eliott only played 1 minute after playing 20 and 10 the two games prior. Evans isn't getting the PT I think he needs, and we will need from him later in the season. A lack of confidence in the young guys.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
1/9/2025 9:32 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Eliott only played 1 minute after playing 20 and 10 the two games prior. Evans isn't getting the PT I think he needs, and we will need from him later in the season. A lack of confidence in the young guys.
I don't think Elliott or Evans are ready yet. Evans commits 8 fouls per 40 minutes. Liked the flash of what he could be as a rim runner last game, but defensively he's lost, and I think stealing minutes each half is basically what he'll be this year.

As for Elliott, he's a long ways away, too. And he's in a crowded backcourt. He's got a TS% that's well below the mendoza line, and the worst effective field goal rate on the team. Just don't really see the case for giving him minutes in competitive games when those minutes would take time away from one of Pavs, Sheldon, James, AJB, or Mitchell. All of those guys have shown more than Elliott.
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100%Cat
1/9/2025 11:44 AM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
Eliott only played 1 minute after playing 20 and 10 the two games prior. Evans isn't getting the PT I think he needs, and we will need from him later in the season. A lack of confidence in the young guys.
I don't think Elliott or Evans are ready yet. Evans commits 8 fouls per 40 minutes. Liked the flash of what he could be as a rim runner last game, but defensively he's lost, and I think stealing minutes each half is basically what he'll be this year.

As for Elliott, he's a long ways away, too. And he's in a crowded backcourt. He's got a TS% that's well below the mendoza line, and the worst effective field goal rate on the team. Just don't really see the case for giving him minutes in competitive games when those minutes would take time away from one of Pavs, Sheldon, James, AJB, or Mitchell. All of those guys have shown more than Elliott.
I agree, but Elliott is the guy I see having massive potential. Smooth athlete, great length for a guard...he's the guy I think will show a lot of improvement over the next couple of years. I just hope he's here when it happens.
Last Edited: 1/9/2025 11:45:03 AM by 100%Cat
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FJC31
1/9/2025 12:03 PM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
Agree with this, I was actually thinking the same last night as it relates to Elmore. Much more often than not, he's going to try and muscle his way to the basket over kicking it out or dumping it off.
I don't think this is Elmore's fault, and it seems to be the case across the board (with the exception of Pavs).

Our offense is pretty stagnant. It seems like a ton of possessions involve one action, and then basically no secondary movement There were several possessions where AJB/Elmore got into the lane, ran into the help defender, and turned and looked for a pass only to find 4 out and no movement. Those possessions resulted in a bunch of 8-10 foot fall away jump shots.

Pavs is a really, really good passer and seems to make something of those possessions more often than others, but nobody slashes/rolls to the rim on penetration and the ballhandler ends up on an island.
The offense can be stagnant for sure. However, Elmore only trails AJB and Hadaway by 6 and 10 shot attempts on the year; while starting two less games. He also has less assists on the year than every other starter besides AJB (by 1) and both Reef/Sheldon for that matter.

He averages 7.3 FGA. Going of that, he'd be third on the team in FGA's if he were to have started each game this season -- with the lowest shooting %.

It's an offensive scheme issue, but I do think Elmore is more prone to shoot rather than not.
The rate stats don't tell a story that's that stark. Per 100 possessions -- which normalizes minutes -- he's 5th in FGA amongst rotation players. Behind Clayton, Searls, Brown and Pavs. And the difference between him (15.6 FGA per 100) and Hadaway (15.4), Evans (15.3), and Reef (14.9) are minimal. Hardly a black hole. His overall usage rate is only ahead of Sheldon.
I know you’re a big advanced stats guy, but rate stats don’t accurately reflect a player's true impact due to limitations in how they’re calculated.

Few example — playing against a weaker opponent, that can inflate a player's rate stats. A usage rate shows how much of a team's offensive possessions a player uses, but a high usage rate doesn't necessarily mean high efficiency.

At the end of the day, Elmore has pumped out a lot of shots and distributed less assists than his starter counterpoints in two less games. I also I’d like to point out I never referred to Elmore as a black hole, rather than someone who chooses to shoots before passing.
Last Edited: 1/9/2025 12:08:19 PM by FJC31
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
1/9/2025 12:17 PM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
I know you’re a big advanced stats guy, but rate stats don’t accurately reflect a player's true impact due to limitations in how they’re calculated.

Few example — playing against a weaker opponent, that can inflate a player's rate stats. A usage rate shows how much of a team's offensive possessions a player uses, but a high usage rate doesn't necessarily mean high efficiency. [/QUOTE]Apples vs. oranges. You suggested that Elmore shoots too much and tried to project how much he'd be shooting if he were playing more. So I shared the rate stats about how much he shoots. I wasn't suggesting anything about efficiency, and know that usage does not measure efficiency.

[QUOTE=FJC31]
At the end of the day, Elmore has pumped out a lot of shots and distributed less assists than his starter counterpoints in two less games. I also I’d like to point out I never referred to Elmore as a black hole, rather than someone who chooses to shoots before passing.
And I don't doubt that Elmore shoots more than he passes. He's not a primary ball handler or creator, so I wouldn't expect him to have a particularly high assist rate.

Just pointing out that he isn't shooting all that much. If anything, he should just be shooting threes and nothing more. He -- like basically all of our wings/guards -- finishes poorly at the basket/inside of 10 feet.
Last Edited: 1/9/2025 12:20:30 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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FJC31
1/9/2025 3:56 PM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
I know you’re a big advanced stats guy, but rate stats don’t accurately reflect a player's true impact due to limitations in how they’re calculated.

Few example — playing against a weaker opponent, that can inflate a player's rate stats. A usage rate shows how much of a team's offensive possessions a player uses, but a high usage rate doesn't necessarily mean high efficiency.
Apples vs. oranges. You suggested that Elmore shoots too much and tried to project how much he'd be shooting if he were playing more. So I shared the rate stats about how much he shoots. I wasn't suggesting anything about efficiency, and know that usage does not measure efficiency.

At the end of the day, Elmore has pumped out a lot of shots and distributed less assists than his starter counterpoints in two less games. I also I’d like to point out I never referred to Elmore as a black hole, rather than someone who chooses to shoots before passing.
And I don't doubt that Elmore shoots more than he passes. He's not a primary ball handler or creator, so I wouldn't expect him to have a particularly high assist rate.

Just pointing out that he isn't shooting all that much. If anything, he should just be shooting threes and nothing more. He -- like basically all of our wings/guards -- finishes poorly at the basket/inside of 10 feet.
Actually, basic math (7.3 FGA x 2 games EJ4 didn't start = 14.6/15 additional FGA's) projected more than I tried to. Which would/could have put him only behind Pav and AJC in total shots on the team.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
1/9/2025 4:24 PM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Actually, basic math (7.3 FGA x 2 games EJ4 didn't start = 14.6/15 additional FGA's) projected more than I tried to. Which would/could have put him only behind Pav and AJC in total shots on the team.
Sorry, I'm having a bit of trouble following.

Elmore didn't start against JMU or UNC Asheville. But he still played 20 and 21 minutes respectively. In games he started, he averages 27 minutes a game. I don't follow why he'd have 14.6 additional FGA just because he didn't start. The difference is about 12 minutes of floor time, and he doesn't average 1+ shot a minute -- or close to it.
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FJC31
1/9/2025 6:04 PM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
Actually, basic math (7.3 FGA x 2 games EJ4 didn't start = 14.6/15 additional FGA's) projected more than I tried to. Which would/could have put him only behind Pav and AJC in total shots on the team.
Sorry, I'm having a bit of trouble following.

Elmore didn't start against JMU or UNC Asheville. But he still played 20 and 21 minutes respectively. In games he started, he averages 27 minutes a game. I don't follow why he'd have 14.6 additional FGA just because he didn't start. The difference is about 12 minutes of floor time, and he doesn't average 1+ shot a minute -- or close to it.
Woof. Strong start to the 2025 posts. I calculated like he missed two games entirely — that’s my bad.

In a vacuum, my agreement with Shabamon’s post was based on how he compares with others in FGA’s, MP, and assists. You’re correct that the ball only moves effectively with Pav. But Elmore has less assists on the year than all rotational players outside Searls and AJB.

He’s a wing, sure. But Sheldon and Reef aren’t exactly PG’s by design, either.

On the flip side, he’s played 28 minutes less than Hadaway and trails him by just 6 FGA’s. Is this a little all over the place? Sure. Does it suggest Elmore shoots too much? No. Does it mean he’s more likely to shoot instead of pass when he has the ball (my original point)? I’d say so. Does it mean he’s an ineffective player? Not at all.

All of these statements can true.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
1/10/2025 8:15 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Actually, basic math (7.3 FGA x 2 games EJ4 didn't start = 14.6/15 additional FGA's) projected more than I tried to. Which would/could have put him only behind Pav and AJC in total shots on the team.
Sorry, I'm having a bit of trouble following.

Elmore didn't start against JMU or UNC Asheville. But he still played 20 and 21 minutes respectively. In games he started, he averages 27 minutes a game. I don't follow why he'd have 14.6 additional FGA just because he didn't start. The difference is about 12 minutes of floor time, and he doesn't average 1+ shot a minute -- or close to it.
Woof. Strong start to the 2025 posts. I calculated like he missed two games entirely — that’s my bad.

In a vacuum, my agreement with Shabamon’s post was based on how he compares with others in FGA’s, MP, and assists. You’re correct that the ball only moves effectively with Pav. But Elmore has less assists on the year than all rotational players outside Searls and AJB.

He’s a wing, sure. But Sheldon and Reef aren’t exactly PG’s by design, either.

On the flip side, he’s played 28 minutes less than Hadaway and trails him by just 6 FGA’s. Is this a little all over the place? Sure. Does it suggest Elmore shoots too much? No. Does it mean he’s more likely to shoot instead of pass when he has the ball (my original point)? I’d say so. Does it mean he’s an ineffective player? Not at all.

All of these statements can true.
I don't disagree with any of this whole cloth. Elmore does not finish inside the arc well, and in a vacuum he should adjust his shot selection to focus more on three point shooting. He's been good there. Second on the team in percentage.

But more broadly, I guess I just sort of see Elmore as reflective of a more team-wide issue, and I'm more inclined to excuse the fact that our guards/wings can't finish at rim at all because I think it's a bi-product of scheme and not having a big that consistently demands defensive attention around the basket. Clayton is a good player around the rim, but he's just not there an awful lot of the time. Too often we get penetration from the wing and are meet by 2 help defenders because we have 4 guys out, and no rim runner to create an easier pass. Hadaway is the closest we have to that. Seems like too often we're asking guards to make a cross court skip pass off penetration, and that's a hard pass to make. It's not in Elmore's bag, and it's not in AJB's either. Feels like there are 8 possessions a game where one of the two of them beat their man and just run into two help defenders, get trapped, and take a contested fall away.

Boals runs a very unstructured offense. He gives the guys a lot of freedom to create, but thus far, on this particular team, it's led to a lot of iffy shot selection and wasted possessions. I wish he'd run more set plays to get guys looks that work more to their strengths.
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FJC31
1/10/2025 9:35 AM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
Actually, basic math (7.3 FGA x 2 games EJ4 didn't start = 14.6/15 additional FGA's) projected more than I tried to. Which would/could have put him only behind Pav and AJC in total shots on the team.
Sorry, I'm having a bit of trouble following.

Elmore didn't start against JMU or UNC Asheville. But he still played 20 and 21 minutes respectively. In games he started, he averages 27 minutes a game. I don't follow why he'd have 14.6 additional FGA just because he didn't start. The difference is about 12 minutes of floor time, and he doesn't average 1+ shot a minute -- or close to it.
Woof. Strong start to the 2025 posts. I calculated like he missed two games entirely — that’s my bad.

In a vacuum, my agreement with Shabamon’s post was based on how he compares with others in FGA’s, MP, and assists. You’re correct that the ball only moves effectively with Pav. But Elmore has less assists on the year than all rotational players outside Searls and AJB.

He’s a wing, sure. But Sheldon and Reef aren’t exactly PG’s by design, either.

On the flip side, he’s played 28 minutes less than Hadaway and trails him by just 6 FGA’s. Is this a little all over the place? Sure. Does it suggest Elmore shoots too much? No. Does it mean he’s more likely to shoot instead of pass when he has the ball (my original point)? I’d say so. Does it mean he’s an ineffective player? Not at all.

All of these statements can true.
I don't disagree with any of this whole cloth. Elmore does not finish inside the arc well, and in a vacuum he should adjust his shot selection to focus more on three point shooting. He's been good there. Second on the team in percentage.

But more broadly, I guess I just sort of see Elmore as reflective of a more team-wide issue, and I'm more inclined to excuse the fact that our guards/wings can't finish at rim at all because I think it's a bi-product of scheme and not having a big that consistently demands defensive attention around the basket. Clayton is a good player around the rim, but he's just not there an awful lot of the time. Too often we get penetration from the wing and are meet by 2 help defenders because we have 4 guys out, and no rim runner to create an easier pass. Hadaway is the closest we have to that. Seems like too often we're asking guards to make a cross court skip pass off penetration, and that's a hard pass to make. It's not in Elmore's bag, and it's not in AJB's either. Feels like there are 8 possessions a game where one of the two of them beat their man and just run into two help defenders, get trapped, and take a contested fall away.

Boals runs a very unstructured offense. He gives the guys a lot of freedom to create, but thus far, on this particular team, it's led to a lot of iffy shot selection and wasted possessions. I wish he'd run more set plays to get guys looks that work more to their strengths.
"Boals runs a very unstructured offense" -- that's how it's felt to me since Preston left. Yes, that was an uber talented team. However, it had all of the correct personnel pieces to make what I think is Boals' offense run correctly and smoothly. It had a true facilitator (Preston), a paint presence (DW3), wings that could shoot the 3 (McDay/Rod), and a stretch 4 (BVP).

We haven't had that same combo since, whether it's been lacking a facilitating PG or more recently -- a true post presence.

Boals either needs to consistently bring in the type of players that fit his offense, or adapt his style to the personnel that he is able to bring in. If we squint, it sort of looks like it might return to that Preston year between Elliot, Evans, and all of the wings incoming, but more recently -- one of the two has needed to give and neither has IMO.
Last Edited: 1/10/2025 9:39:05 AM by FJC31
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BillyTheCat
1/11/2025 9:20 PM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Actually, basic math (7.3 FGA x 2 games EJ4 didn't start = 14.6/15 additional FGA's) projected more than I tried to. Which would/could have put him only behind Pav and AJC in total shots on the team.
Sorry, I'm having a bit of trouble following.

Elmore didn't start against JMU or UNC Asheville. But he still played 20 and 21 minutes respectively. In games he started, he averages 27 minutes a game. I don't follow why he'd have 14.6 additional FGA just because he didn't start. The difference is about 12 minutes of floor time, and he doesn't average 1+ shot a minute -- or close to it.
Woof. Strong start to the 2025 posts. I calculated like he missed two games entirely — that’s my bad.

In a vacuum, my agreement with Shabamon’s post was based on how he compares with others in FGA’s, MP, and assists. You’re correct that the ball only moves effectively with Pav. But Elmore has less assists on the year than all rotational players outside Searls and AJB.

He’s a wing, sure. But Sheldon and Reef aren’t exactly PG’s by design, either.

On the flip side, he’s played 28 minutes less than Hadaway and trails him by just 6 FGA’s. Is this a little all over the place? Sure. Does it suggest Elmore shoots too much? No. Does it mean he’s more likely to shoot instead of pass when he has the ball (my original point)? I’d say so. Does it mean he’s an ineffective player? Not at all.

All of these statements can true.
I don't disagree with any of this whole cloth. Elmore does not finish inside the arc well, and in a vacuum he should adjust his shot selection to focus more on three point shooting. He's been good there. Second on the team in percentage.

But more broadly, I guess I just sort of see Elmore as reflective of a more team-wide issue, and I'm more inclined to excuse the fact that our guards/wings can't finish at rim at all because I think it's a bi-product of scheme and not having a big that consistently demands defensive attention around the basket. Clayton is a good player around the rim, but he's just not there an awful lot of the time. Too often we get penetration from the wing and are meet by 2 help defenders because we have 4 guys out, and no rim runner to create an easier pass. Hadaway is the closest we have to that. Seems like too often we're asking guards to make a cross court skip pass off penetration, and that's a hard pass to make. It's not in Elmore's bag, and it's not in AJB's either. Feels like there are 8 possessions a game where one of the two of them beat their man and just run into two help defenders, get trapped, and take a contested fall away.

Boals runs a very unstructured offense. He gives the guys a lot of freedom to create, but thus far, on this particular team, it's led to a lot of iffy shot selection and wasted possessions. I wish he'd run more set plays to get guys looks that work more to their strengths.
"Boals runs a very unstructured offense" -- that's how it's felt to me since Preston left. Yes, that was an uber talented team. However, it had all of the correct personnel pieces to make what I think is Boals' offense run correctly and smoothly. It had a true facilitator (Preston), a paint presence (DW3), wings that could shoot the 3 (McDay/Rod), and a stretch 4 (BVP).

We haven't had that same combo since, whether it's been lacking a facilitating PG or more recently -- a true post presence.

Boals either needs to consistently bring in the type of players that fit his offense, or adapt his style to the personnel that he is able to bring in. If we squint, it sort of looks like it might return to that Preston year between Elliot, Evans, and all of the wings incoming, but more recently -- one of the two has needed to give and neither has IMO.

Reading this it’s amazing that Boals can win any games, much less be OHIO’s winningest coach.
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FJC31
1/11/2025 11:11 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Actually, basic math (7.3 FGA x 2 games EJ4 didn't start = 14.6/15 additional FGA's) projected more than I tried to. Which would/could have put him only behind Pav and AJC in total shots on the team.
Sorry, I'm having a bit of trouble following.

Elmore didn't start against JMU or UNC Asheville. But he still played 20 and 21 minutes respectively. In games he started, he averages 27 minutes a game. I don't follow why he'd have 14.6 additional FGA just because he didn't start. The difference is about 12 minutes of floor time, and he doesn't average 1+ shot a minute -- or close to it.
Woof. Strong start to the 2025 posts. I calculated like he missed two games entirely — that’s my bad.

In a vacuum, my agreement with Shabamon’s post was based on how he compares with others in FGA’s, MP, and assists. You’re correct that the ball only moves effectively with Pav. But Elmore has less assists on the year than all rotational players outside Searls and AJB.

He’s a wing, sure. But Sheldon and Reef aren’t exactly PG’s by design, either.

On the flip side, he’s played 28 minutes less than Hadaway and trails him by just 6 FGA’s. Is this a little all over the place? Sure. Does it suggest Elmore shoots too much? No. Does it mean he’s more likely to shoot instead of pass when he has the ball (my original point)? I’d say so. Does it mean he’s an ineffective player? Not at all.

All of these statements can true.
I don't disagree with any of this whole cloth. Elmore does not finish inside the arc well, and in a vacuum he should adjust his shot selection to focus more on three point shooting. He's been good there. Second on the team in percentage.

But more broadly, I guess I just sort of see Elmore as reflective of a more team-wide issue, and I'm more inclined to excuse the fact that our guards/wings can't finish at rim at all because I think it's a bi-product of scheme and not having a big that consistently demands defensive attention around the basket. Clayton is a good player around the rim, but he's just not there an awful lot of the time. Too often we get penetration from the wing and are meet by 2 help defenders because we have 4 guys out, and no rim runner to create an easier pass. Hadaway is the closest we have to that. Seems like too often we're asking guards to make a cross court skip pass off penetration, and that's a hard pass to make. It's not in Elmore's bag, and it's not in AJB's either. Feels like there are 8 possessions a game where one of the two of them beat their man and just run into two help defenders, get trapped, and take a contested fall away.

Boals runs a very unstructured offense. He gives the guys a lot of freedom to create, but thus far, on this particular team, it's led to a lot of iffy shot selection and wasted possessions. I wish he'd run more set plays to get guys looks that work more to their strengths.
"Boals runs a very unstructured offense" -- that's how it's felt to me since Preston left. Yes, that was an uber talented team. However, it had all of the correct personnel pieces to make what I think is Boals' offense run correctly and smoothly. It had a true facilitator (Preston), a paint presence (DW3), wings that could shoot the 3 (McDay/Rod), and a stretch 4 (BVP).

We haven't had that same combo since, whether it's been lacking a facilitating PG or more recently -- a true post presence.

Boals either needs to consistently bring in the type of players that fit his offense, or adapt his style to the personnel that he is able to bring in. If we squint, it sort of looks like it might return to that Preston year between Elliot, Evans, and all of the wings incoming, but more recently -- one of the two has needed to give and neither has IMO.

Reading this it’s amazing that Boals can win any games, much less be OHIO’s winningest coach.
If only stacking regular season wins was all of it.
Last Edited: 1/11/2025 11:14:59 PM by FJC31
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shabamon
1/13/2025 1:47 PM
I liked this excerpt from the UB board.

Ohio - they looked like a veteran, well-coached team. I would've bet the farm they would beat this UB team by more than 11...and in the end, that's why I don't gamble. They started slow but it kicked in. Clayton makes it look easy. Searls looked like one of those classic MAC big guys who don't look athletic, look like they're 35 and are in their 6th year...and somehow end up being effective out there. Think, Monty St. Clair on Miami, or Nate "double deuce" van der Sluice, or Kenneth van Kempen, or Matt Stainbrook. You chuckle, then they keep hitting baskets. Searls vs Michaels or Oboh was like a man versus a child in there.
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