Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Has Saul Lost The Team?
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person
Recovering Journalist
1/19/2018 8:24 AM
If nothing else, I've learned in this thread that making the Sweet 16 is a program killer and an 11-7 conference record is a laudable goal. Who knew?

Call me crazy, but I don't think we have to spend more than every team in the conference to a) avoid the Sweet 16 and b) compile 11 MAC wins.
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GoCats105
1/19/2018 8:31 AM
Recovering Journalist wrote:expand_more
If nothing else, I've learned in this thread that making the Sweet 16 is a program killer and an 11-7 conference record is a laudable goal. Who knew?

Call me crazy, but I don't think we have to spend more than every team in the conference to a) avoid the Sweet 16 and b) compile 11 MAC wins.
I didn't realize how big of a pay raise SP got until I looked up his last contract at NDSU. Honestly, do you think we reached or overspent just a little? I don't mind Ohio spending the money they did on a basketball coach, but when I originally saw what he was getting paid in the first contract at Ohio it definitely jumped off the page like "that's a little much." Am I wrong here or were we just trying to keep the program at the top-level of the MAC spending wise?
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Recovering Journalist
1/19/2018 8:43 AM
GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Am I wrong here or were we just trying to keep the program at the top-level of the MAC spending wise?
Whether one agrees with it or not, that was and now is about the going rate for a top-flight MAC coach. On the other end of the spectrum, Miami was paying John Cooper $235,000 (others may get less, but likely not much). When Ohio signed SP, Akron soon upped Dambrot's base salary to something very close.

$550,000 probably IS worth it when you're selling season tickets, putting butts in seats, winning games in March and making the NCAA Tournament at least once in the course of the contract. It looks pretty horrible when you're doing none of those things.
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allen
1/19/2018 9:02 AM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Saul is stubborn about playing zone so you have to recruit athletes that can defend.
The athletes he recruited gave up 90+ points in four different games this year and Ohio is 10th in the MAC in scoring defense, so this defense thing isn't really working.
Buffalo is just going to drive, drive drive and if they make layups they win. You go to a zone like Princeton when you don’t have athletes to match up one on one.
If you can not play man, and understand man principles of defense than you cannot play zone to a high level. But hey, you’ve got all the answers.
Nothing like BTC logic. Zones allow you to hide some of your weaknesses.
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allen
1/19/2018 9:03 AM
Recovering Journalist wrote:expand_more
If nothing else, I've learned in this thread that making the Sweet 16 is a program killer and an 11-7 conference record is a laudable goal. Who knew?

Call me crazy, but I don't think we have to spend more than every team in the conference to a) avoid the Sweet 16 and b) compile 11 MAC wins.
lol
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greencat
1/19/2018 10:31 AM
Recovering Journalist wrote:expand_more
Am I wrong here or were we just trying to keep the program at the top-level of the MAC spending wise?
Whether one agrees with it or not, that was and now is about the going rate for a top-flight MAC coach. On the other end of the spectrum, Miami was paying John Cooper $235,000 (others may get less, but likely not much). When Ohio signed SP, Akron soon upped Dambrot's base salary to something very close.

$550,000 probably IS worth it when you're selling season tickets, putting butts in seats, winning games in March and making the NCAA Tournament at least once in the course of the contract. It looks pretty horrible when you're doing none of those things.

I heard from a former sportwriter who said this guy should get an interview whenever the next change takes place. His words, not mine.
http://athletics.findlay.edu/sports/mbkb/coaches/Charlie_...
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bornacatfan
1/19/2018 12:01 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Saul is stubborn about playing zone so you have to recruit athletes that can defend.
The athletes he recruited gave up 90+ points in four different games this year and Ohio is 10th in the MAC in scoring defense, so this defense thing isn't really working.
Buffalo is just going to drive, drive drive and if they make layups they win. You go to a zone like Princeton when you don’t have athletes to match up one on one.
If you can not play man, and understand man principles of defense than you cannot play zone to a high level. But hey, you’ve got all the answers.

Was reading through a text written by Frank McGuire (google him if you do not know his name) the other night. The book was one of many I read as a kid from my father's library that I am rereading before passing on to his grandson that is now considering coaching. I chuckled after reading BA then returned to the book.

From Chapter 1
"At North Carolina University all freshmen are required to learn the man to man defense. In this connection I feel that grade school, club, junior and senior high school and college freshmen should be [i] prohibited [i] from use of zone defenses and other combinations before they have mastered the man to man defense. ..... once a player grasps the principles of man to man and applies them to actual scrimmage, he begins to see the light and developes pride in his individual defensive ability.


Things have changed in basketball since that was written, published and used for Coach Rupp's Basketball Theory class my Pops had in 1959 but there are many axioms that hold true despite everyone's opinions. Those players Boeheim, Cheney and others use in complex and effective zones have excellent man principles taught and combine them with the complex responsibilities of a zone. Employing a zone is not as simple as "let's put a zone in and use it this week" . Saul is a M2M guy, he has said it and stays with it. Pretty sure we won't see a zone here. Still fun to return to the roots of basketball over the years and see how and why attitudes have evolved as others stay the same. Basktball history is absolutely fascinating.

.
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Bobcat1996
1/19/2018 3:44 PM
"I heard from a former sportwriter who said this guy should get an interview whenever the next change takes place. His words, not mine.
http://athletics.findlay.edu/sports/mbkb/coaches/Charlie_ ..."

Probably wouldn't need to pay the guy at Findlay $600,000 if that is the case.
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giacomo
1/19/2018 5:57 PM
Recovering Journalist wrote:expand_more
When I say "look in the mirror", this is what I mean:

You all have jobs and careers and such. You expect perfection and championships from our coaches and teams. What about you? Are you at the top of your games? Are you the top performer at what you do every day? If somebody criticized your performance like some of the stuff I see on here, most of you would cry like a little kid who fell off their banana bike.
Ridiculous.

None of us make $550,000 a year to specifically win basketball games. If any of us worked in a field where we had the largest budget and underperformed against most of our competition, you're right. We wouldn't get yelled at or criticized daily. We'd be fired.

We know he's not getting fired, but part of the gig for Saul is to take heat when he doesn't meet expectations. I'll gladly "look in the mirror" and take some levelheaded criticism on a silly message board for $550,000 a year. You hiring?
Sounds like a guy who thinks he is underpaid.
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D.A.
1/19/2018 6:09 PM
OU_Country wrote:expand_more
I just don't feel unreasonable in the least. We're in year four and it sucks. SP is either the highest or second-highest paid coach in the MAC. This program sells the most tickets in the MAC*. It puts the most butts in the seats in the MAC* (*poised to change). If you're cool with two seasons of 11-7 and no tournament final followed by the wilderness campaign of this season, then your expectations are exceptionally low.

The fact is, that as of right now, Miami is on the rise and this program is floundering. You're right that we're not Miami because they're in better shape right now.
I didn't consider the previous two seasons to be disappointments. If the results would have been the same last year, after losing Tony in January, I would have been disappointed. But there's the reality of losing him that made last year's results....okay with me. Not exceptional, but not disappointing. This year has been a big disappointment, no question. But to say "we're Miami" is a silly to me. Yes, Miami is better this year, but I'm saying 5-6 years in a row like Ohio is this year when I say we're not less than Miami. They've been bad, until this year, for several years in a row.

Look at every year, historically, since 1985, when the tournament went to 64+ teams. Since those years, 11-7 in the MAC has been the norm, with around 19-20 wins. That's where I'd set the realistic expectation level personally.

Beyond that, I went into the Ohio Basketball record book, link below, and popped the year over year win/loss numbers since 1980 into Excel to do a quick look at history. To me, that norm, over the last 37 years (not including this year because it's not complete) is what, within a little reason, the "expectations" should be. That 37 year average is 19.23 wins, 12.72 losses overall, 10.26 wins, and 7.01 losses in conference. Six NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980. I don't argue with your ROI comments regarding his contract and the extra investment causing a little loftier expectations, but how much more is realistic?

Further average numbers by coach:

Nee: 17.8-11.2; 12-5.67 (two NCAA's in 6 years)
Hahn: 14-15; 7.33-8.67 (three seasons)
Hunter: 17-12.33; 10.25-7.25 (1 NCAA in 12 years)
TOS: 17.14-13.57; 9.29-8.14 (1 NCAA in 7 years)
Groce: 21.25-14; 8.5-7.5 (two NCAA's in 4 years)
JC: 24.5-11; 12.5-4.5 (two seasons)
Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)


http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...
I LOVE good data, and trying to draw conclusions from/interpret what it means. As I take a cursory review of the data above, my first conclusion is: if you have the right coach, you can out perform against the primary "golden ticket" objective for all mid majors: Making the field of 64. Four of our six appearances came in the ten years under two coaches. 40% success rate with the highest performing coaches against the ultimate measure, 7% success rate in the remaining 27 years.
Last Edited: 1/19/2018 6:10:00 PM by D.A.
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D.A.
1/19/2018 6:12 PM
OU_Country wrote:expand_more
If you're happy in the middle of the pack, then you shouldn't be happy with this:

Division 1 Basketball Budgets
122) Ohio University-Main Campus 3,101,150
123) University of Akron Main Campus 3,088,920
162) Bowling Green State University-Main Campus 2,389,470
163) University of Toledo 2,340,047
166) Miami University-Oxford 2,329,719
179) Western Michigan University 2,183,818
184) Kent State University at Kent 2,152,644
191) University at Buffalo 2,054,470
194) Eastern Michigan University 2,031,759
200) Ball State University 1,905,730
204) Northern Illinois University 1,880,733
240) Central Michigan University 1,646,267
Obviously this year isn't remotely middle of the pack.

Beyond that, I'm confused: In what way is 43-23, and 22-14 over the previous two years, and the average year of 19-12, and 11-7 (or 10-6) over the last 37 years, considered "middle of the pack"?

And also some additional good data above. Asking for a friend, who doesn't expect OHIO to be Gonzaga: is it unfair to ask OHIO hoops to be the Gonzaga OF THE MAC if we spend to the level above? My friend doesn't know the definitive answer to the question, but he feels it is a fair question to ask.
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Bobcat-7.0
1/19/2018 6:55 PM
..
Last Edited: 1/19/2018 8:30:32 PM by Bobcat-7.0
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OU_Country
1/19/2018 8:07 PM
Bobcat-7.0 wrote:expand_more
Off your knees!
Or did you mean Nees? I may have to change my screen name.
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Bobcat-7.0
1/19/2018 8:32 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
When I say "look in the mirror", this is what I mean:

You all have jobs and careers and such. You expect perfection and championships from our coaches and teams. What about you? Are you at the top of your games? Are you the top performer at what you do every day? If somebody criticized your performance like some of the stuff I see on here, most of you would cry like a little kid who fell off their banana bike.
Off your knees!
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greencat
1/20/2018 9:41 AM
Everybody from the greeter at Walmart to the bank president has some sort of metrics or statistical standards they are required to meet and most have reviews on a regular basis (quarterly, yearly, whatever) where those are discussed. If those standards/quotas are not being met, the meetings can be less than a walk in the park.

But everybody faces the music in their profession and maybe other than the occasional PMS suffering office clerk, nobody busts out crying over it.
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Bobcat1996
1/20/2018 1:04 PM
Had no idea that Ohio's budget was almost twice that of Central Michigan and a million dollars more than about half the league. Only Akron is close to spending as much as Ohio. Are those figures up to date or for the 2016-17 season?
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Recovering Journalist
1/20/2018 5:22 PM
Bobcat1996 wrote:expand_more
Had no idea that Ohio's budget was almost twice that of Central Michigan and a million dollars more than about half the league. Only Akron is close to spending as much as Ohio. Are those figures up to date or for the 2016-17 season?
I pulled them off the MAC board. I think it was for the 2016-2017 season.
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giacomo
1/21/2018 10:56 AM
My perspective is coming from a conscious effort to not becoming the proverbial "angry old man" as the clock ticks. You know guys like that, some on this board. Not happy with anything. They go to a game at the Convo and scoreboard isn't high tech enough. The hand dryers are no good. Saul's tie isn't the right shade of green.....blah, blah, blah. I'm going to enjoy the game and the effort every time, win or lose.
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oldkatz
1/21/2018 2:58 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
My perspective is coming from a conscious effort to not becoming the proverbial "angry old man" as the clock ticks. You know guys like that, some on this board. Not happy with anything. They go to a game at the Convo and scoreboard isn't high tech enough. The hand dryers are no good. Saul's tie isn't the right shade of green.....blah, blah, blah. I'm going to enjoy the game and the effort every time, win or lose.
Me, too.
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OUVan
1/22/2018 11:21 AM
Recovering Journalist wrote:expand_more
Yup. We've gone from a program where our starters would start on the vast majority of MAC rosters and our bench players would start on lesser MAC rosters to a lot of players (not all, but a lot) who don't even cut it in the MAC.

In a sport where only 13 scholarships are available, every recruiting whiff sets the program back, and we have more than a few.
Sorry but that's crap. Every single player that gets playing time is a legitimate D1 player. Every single one. Saul has only had one real whiff in recruiting. Our problem has nothing to do with talent but the team playing the game the way the coaching staff wants them to. Too many short possessions. Too much time with the ball in one player's hands on a possession. Too many 1-on-3 drives with good shooters standing open on the perimeter. Too many possessions where a player cuts in the wrong direction bringing his defender to an area where he can guard multiple players including the guy coming off a pick who should have been wide open. Too many possessions with poor defensive rotation. Too many switches where a player doesn't switch. All fixable problems but it's getting late in the game for the light to suddenly go on.
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Recovering Journalist
1/22/2018 12:45 PM
OUVan wrote:expand_more
Yup. We've gone from a program where our starters would start on the vast majority of MAC rosters and our bench players would start on lesser MAC rosters to a lot of players (not all, but a lot) who don't even cut it in the MAC.

In a sport where only 13 scholarships are available, every recruiting whiff sets the program back, and we have more than a few.
Sorry but that's crap. Every single player that gets playing time is a legitimate D1 player. Every single one. Saul has only had one real whiff in recruiting. Our problem has nothing to do with talent but the team playing the game the way the coaching staff wants them to. Too many short possessions. Too much time with the ball in one player's hands on a possession. Too many 1-on-3 drives with good shooters standing open on the perimeter. Too many possessions where a player cuts in the wrong direction bringing his defender to an area where he can guard multiple players including the guy coming off a pick who should have been wide open. Too many possessions with poor defensive rotation. Too many switches where a player doesn't switch. All fixable problems but it's getting late in the game for the light to suddenly go on.
I never said they weren't D1 players. The MAC is normally one of the stronger mid-major leagues. On a whole, this is not an impressive MAC roster by any stretch.
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100%Cat
1/22/2018 2:31 PM
Recovering Journalist wrote:expand_more
If nothing else, I've learned in this thread that making the Sweet 16 is a program killer and an 11-7 conference record is a laudable goal. Who knew?

Call me crazy, but I don't think we have to spend more than every team in the conference to a) avoid the Sweet 16 and b) compile 11 MAC wins.
So you're saying that magical run did not significantly impact expectations from the majority of the fan base?
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Recovering Journalist
1/22/2018 3:46 PM
100%Cat wrote:expand_more
So you're saying that magical run did not significantly impact expectations from the majority of the fan base?
You see expectations as a bad thing. I do not.

To be sure, there were people on here who forgot just how close that 2012 team came to not making the tournament at all. But I do reject the notion that it's harmful to have fans hoping for more, and pushing for more, even when they're being unrealistic.

I've explained my expectations elsewhere, and I think they're pretty realistic. If we're spending the most, we should be among the top four teams in the league every year (barring coaching upheavals), and every five years or so we should win the MAC Tournament. If someone wants more than that, I may personally think they're being a bit greedy, but I sure don't think they're hurting the program.

We all have different expectations. People in this very thread have made it clear that they're happy just to watch games "win or lose." I think more than $3 million a year should get you something better than that, and get a better trajectory than what we're seeing. It doesn't make me automatically right and them wrong, but I suspect the people in power at Ohio choosing to spend the most money in the league on basketball are spending it with similar (if not greater) expectations.
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100%Cat
1/22/2018 3:51 PM
Those expectations led most to be disappointed with the results the following season. That season that followed was a 14-2 conference mark and a share of the MAC regular season title. When was the last time that happened? And nobody cared.
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Recovering Journalist
1/22/2018 4:02 PM
100%Cat wrote:expand_more
Those expectations led most to be disappointed with the results the following season. That season that followed was a 14-2 conference mark and a share of the MAC regular season title. When was the last time that happened? And nobody cared.
“Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” - Alexander Pope
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