The number of flu deaths this year was 24,000, and that was for a whole year. We have blown by that in just two months, and are currently getting close to 1/10 that number each day. Without mitigation, it would be a lot worse. Now people are going to point to the study out today and say "but the infection rate is actually 85x higher". Maybe it is, in which case, perhaps the deaths without mitigation would be in the hundreds of thousands, a big improvement over millions. Nevertheless, without mitigation it is clear that the death toll from this would be far, far, far higher than a regular flu.

As a warning though, consider that when people get immunity to other coronaviruses, the immunity is typically very short lived. Thus, if you get exposed to oc43 or 229e, you develop and immunity that typically lasts several months, but you can catch it again as soon as four months after the initial infection. If that is also true of COVID19, then the presence of a higher number of people who have been infected isn't particularly helpful.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#definition

For SARS the immunity lasted somewhat longer, but was gone within a few years. In any case, how long the immunity to Covid19 will last is an unknown.

Coronavirus in Ohio prisons responsible for uptick in Ohio count. Marion and Pickaway counties have seen big upticks in their cases because they are releasing releasing counts from Ohio prisons. A few days ago, before they released these counts, Marion county had less than 40 cases, now it is 10x higher than that. However, as state official have indicated these cases are not being spread because they are confined to the respective correctional facilities.
https://www.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/17/co... /

sniffle sniffle. poor Roger Stone. 😂

I'm confused. Isn't your entire stance since you joined the conversation about Covid here that it's not the threat experts made it out to be and things should be allowed to go back to normal? If that's the case, why does it matter if these cases are contained? The position you're advocating is one that advocates for uncontained spread.

I saw some data that makes me question the Stanford study. First, the accuracy of their test was questionable. They used a test made in China. A study in Denmark rated that particular test the least accurate of the tests they tried, with an accuracy of <90%. That is huge. Consider that if you test 1000 people, and 10 of them are infected. That would be a 1% infection rate. Now, if you are wrong on the 10% of the positives, the test might show 9 or 11. But what about the 990 that should be negative? It might show only 900 negatives, meaning you could show 100 positives (10 real ones, and 90 false positives), when the real number was only 10. I'm not sure that you can draw any reasonable conclusions without a more accurate test.

Next, consider the way they got people to test. They solicited them through Facebook. Might someone who wonders if they had Covid19 opt for the test? Very likely. So you end up with a self selected sample, most likely a group with a higher than typical chance of having been exposed to Covid19.

I'm sure that more people have had Covid than we know about. We can conclude that from data from places like Iceland where they did a lot of testing, or from the city of Vo, Italy. It would be nice if the real number is 50-85 times higher, but the Stanford study doesn't appear to sufficient to reach much of any conclusions.

As regards deaths, sometime this week we should hit two times the number of deaths from the flu this year (which killed 24,000). The IMHE model shows deaths vanishing after May 1. I hope that happens, but I am skeptical. Even then it doesn't address a second wave in the Fall. Flu plandemics normally kill a few in the Spring, then come back and kill more on the second wave, in the Fall. Will that also be true of Covid19? We'll have to wait and see, I guess.

Edit - Apparently for larger samples, the expected error of the test used by Stanford is more like +/- 2%. Still, if you are finding 2% positive, and the error is +/- 2%, the real infection rate is most likely in the 0-4% range. That error, combined with a non-random sample of people means that the Stanford "study" is a nice start, but not very convincing.

The good news is that if the real infection rate is 50x higher than previously know, the death rate is a lot lower, and that we are 1/20th of the way to herd immunity already. The bad news is that the R0 must be far higher than we knew, and it is going to be nearly impossible to avoid. Either way, buckle up for a year we won't forget (but won't want to remember).

Edit2 - There is another study out today with similar results. LA County found 4.1% of the people had antibodies, 28-55x higher than would be expected. The more studies that show this, the better. On the other hand, it is important to remember that when you are dealing with a low percent positive, the incidence of false positives is important. If a test gets 2% false positives, and you test 1000 people, none of whom are actually positive, you will get 2% positive. I don't know if they adjusted for that, but hopefully they did.

Georgia's governor certainly puts the goober in gubernatorial.

Not to mention the body getting probed with light sabers.

Yep. Pick your color - one for Dems, one for trumpsters and one for independents.

https://www.joissu.com/Light-Up-Space-Swords/productinfo/...

Nebraska is having serious problems with meat packing plants, where the air is cold and dry. Their cases grew rapidly in Lexington, Grand Island, Crete, and Sioux City over the last week, all of which have packing plants. In addition, Nebraska is moving from 500 tests a day to 3000 tests a day, so I expect there to continue to be a lot of new cases detected in the next week just from the additional testing alone.

Food processors caused a surge of cases in South Dakota and Iowa recently as well. Was that the reason for the big jump in Ohio last week, too? It's starting to get to the point where I suppose they need to consider shutting down a lot of these plants. Unfortunately that would be hard on farmers/ranchers as hogs and cattle would have to be destroyed, as there would be nothing else to do with them. It would likely also lead to a nationwide food shortage later this year, so I hope it doesn't come to that.

Meanwhile, in the cities, and the small towns without packing plants, case growth is pretty moderate. Growth in those four counties with meat packing plants over the last week has been over 20% a day, while growth in the entire rest of the state, which includes the major cities, has been 5.7% a day. During the same time period Ohio has been 8.3%, and the national average has been 5.9%.

The big growth in Ohio was in prisons. Let's see prisons, meat packing plants, high rise apartments. What do they have in common? Lots of people in a confined space.

Also nursing homes and halfway houses. Putnam County was one of the last three counties in Ohio to report a covid-19 case and went from one to 20 cases almost overnight because of an outbreak in a nursing home in Leipsic. A week later it has 49 cases. I imagine homeless shelters are experiencing the same thing, but might not be in the reported numbers because residents there are transient.

Can't tell you what's going on at this base because of security, but in the civilian population they claim nearly 7,500 are being tested each day and that this is the most on a percentage basis in the world. Can't say for sure if this is true, as I have little contact outside the base. My consultation is strictly military, and is not related to this coronavirus outbreak.