A couple of questions from your above post:
You say you're looking out your window right now.
Where exactly is that ? [/QUOTE]29th and 7th, across the street from a Doubletree that's temporarily been converted into a homeless shelter, is 300 yards from the "Penn Station Drug Market" the WSJ alluded to, and as I mentioned earlier, right next to a bodega that was shut down for selling heroin a few weeks back.
This block's the worst one I've seen in midtown. It's like San Francisco.
As far as my cousin, he's been working for NYC for over 15 years and said its the worst he's ever seen it.
How long have you been living/working in Manhattan?
Since 2005.
I've been going to the City by myself since Lindsey was Mayor.
I don't really care, honestly. We're talking about a specific moment in time (now) in which you a) have a very certain opinion, while b) having no firsthand experience.
The best was under Giuliani and Bloomberg.
NYC was starting to quickly go downhill under Di Blazio.
I'm not even a fan of DeBlasio, but hard to see this as anything but confirmation bias. Under DeBlasio violent crime, property crime, murder, robberies, burglaries, thefts, grand larceny, and auto thefts all reached their lowest ever rates in New York City since the 50s.
https://www.npr.org/2017/12/30/574800001/how-crime-rates-... The murder rate jumped in 2020 to 447. That spike means there were fewer murders in 2020 than in all but two of the years Bloomberg served. That spike also is half as many as the worst year under Guiliani. In other words, DeBlasio's worst year crime-wise, which corresponded with a black swan pandemic event that drove crime up nationally, was still better than every year under Guiliani and all but two years under Bloomberg. And you're sitting here, wistful about the good ol' days of Guiliani and Bloomberg, afraid to visit without a gun. All because the crime rate's almost as bad as it was under Bloomberg and Guiliani. Sound logic.
Here's a good rundown:
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/07/giulianis-misleading-at... /
The increase in murders and violent crime's been seen nationwide. The murder rate increased by 24.7%; NYC's rate is only a 19.2% increase, below the national rate.
Here's a breakdown from Vox of three potential causes:
[QUOTE]
1) The Covid-19 pandemic: The coronavirus caused massive disruptions in American life, from the economy to education to entertainment. With all this change in human behavior, there’s a good chance that people changed something in their day-to-day lives that led to more violent crimes, shootings, and murders. Experts don’t necessarily know what that something might be yet.
There are some plausible explanations that fit into the preexisting evidence. For example, isolation and idleness tend to be big concerns for criminologists: When people, especially teenage boys and young men, lack the right social connections and have a lot of free time on their hands, they’re more likely to get into trouble — spending time when they’d be at work or school on gang or other illicit activity, possibly to make ends meet or to socialize. As the pandemic shut down much of day-to-day life, including schools and some sectors of work, those circumstances were more likely in 2020, and may have led to more violence.
Separately, a lot of programs that could help build social cohesion and combat violent crime and murder, including police and other parts of government but also civilian-led initiatives, shut down for at least parts of the year as a result of the pandemic. That, too, could have led to more violence.
2) The protests over policing: After the police killing of George Floyd, America was rocked by months of protests over police brutality. Initial rioting at some protests led to a brief spike in nonresidential burglaries in late May, but that quickly subsided and doesn’t explain the increase in violent crime; instead, experts cite breakdowns in police-community relations.
Those breakdowns could impact violent crime in two ways. Maybe police, afraid of coming under criticism through the next viral video or acting in protest of the demonstrations, pulled back on proactive practices that suppress crime. Or maybe much of the public lost trust in the police, refusing to cooperate with them — making it harder for police to lock up offenders who go on to commit more crimes, and also possibly leading to more “street justice,” as more people distrust the legal system to stop wrongdoers and instead take matters into their own hands. Or a mix of both could have played a role.
3) More guns, more gun violence: In 2020, Americans bought a record number of guns, likely in response to the chaos and fears that engulfed the year. The research is consistent on this point: More guns lead to more gun violence. One study linked the increase in gun purchases through May 2020 to more such violence. With so many guns around, they’re just more likely to be used in violence — their expanded presence makes it more likely that arguments or fights escalate out of control, that thieves can steal firearms to use them in other crimes, or that people can simply purchase more of the weapons with explicitly ill intent.