Ask me in a few years which was the most accurate.
Here's a composite of Freshmen for you, with ratings in the order: My composite total, ESPN, Scout, Rivals, and 247 sports, then #BCS offers, other FBS offers. I have bolded the 3-star ratings, and the BCS offers, and put in blue places where the player was not really rated..
Clark 711,
4.5,
3,
5.6,
83,
11, 1
Roberts 500, 7.4, 2,
5.5,
80,
5, 2
Murray 466,
4.5,2,
5.6,
80,
4, 1
Gibbons 402,
4.5, 2,
5.5,
70,
3, 2
Smith 402, 7.3,
3,
5.7,
85,
1, 2
Watson 401, 7.3,
3,
5.2, 73, 0, 7
Schany 372,
7.7, 2,
5.5, 72,
1, 1
Windham 366, 7.4, 2, 5.4,
80,
1, 2
Tanner 349, 7.4, 2, 5.4, 76,
1, 2
Laseak 292, 7.0, 2,
5.2,
80, 0, 2
Patterson 279, 7.1, 2, 5.3, 0, 0
Rodriguez 243,
4.5,
2,
5.2, 7.1, 0, 2
Henry 240,
4.5,
2, 5.3,
70, 0, 1
Davis 240, 6.8,
2,
5.2,
70, 0, 1
Reid 206,
4.5,
2,
5.2, 71, 0, 0
As you can see, of the 15 recruits, nine of them are rated 3-star by at least one service. Also, one player, Tanner, is rated just below 3 stars by several services, and has a BCS offer. You can also see that all of the services have some gaps, where they miss players. For example, ESPN missed 3 of the top 4 players on my list, Clark, Murray, and Gibbons.
At the bottom of the list, you find players like Reid, Davis, Henry, and Rodriguez that weren't evaluated at all by most of the services. How would they have rated them, if they had rated them at all? 2 stars? 3? We'll never know, but I can say that I personally was very impressed with Reid and Davis on the films, and I'm expecting good things from them. In past classes the mystery guys at the bottom have usually turned out very, very well. Here are the mystery players from the last few years:
2011 - Mike Lucas, Devon Bass, Jovon Johnson, Michael Curtis, Grant Venham
2010 - Ryan McGrath
2009 - Ryan Boykin, Dylan Reda, Mario Dovell, Skyler Allen
2008 - Matt Weller, Travis Carrie, Melvin Payne, Sergio Judkins, Tyler Futrell, Vince Carlotta, Alphonso Lewis, Neal Huynh
2007 - Lavon Brazill, Kadre Pinder, Kenny Jackson, John Flowers, Matt Donahue, Jeff King, Curtis Meyers
Most of these showed they could play. Reda, Payne, Judkins, Pinder, and Donahue all left the program for non-football reasons, and Flowers and King had injury issues, but pretty much all the rest have been starters, or are likely starters next year. In fact, I think you could make the case that the mystery, unrated players have on average been better than the rest of the class. That's why I'm not concerned in the least about those 5 at the bottom.
Last Edited: 2/14/2012 4:51:02 PM by L.C.