Ohio Football Recruiting Topic
Topic: Which position will be the first commit?
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L.C.
7/10/2012 11:02 PM
BuddyLee wrote:expand_more
Thanks for the stats LC, you save us a lot of work around here.  Now we just got to find a way to stop EMU and Buffalo from stealing our recruits.

Obviously we owe a ton of our recruiting success to coach Solich, but dare I say that we are getting to the point where the program actually sells itself?  I still think there is another tier of more elite athletes we can realistically get to (i.e. Boise, TCU, lower half Big Ten), but beating out the Mac teams is a good start.  Hopefully we don't drop off the map again when Solich eventually retires.

I think the Buffalo and EMU cases were special cases. Ohio doesn't lose often to those schools. I know EMU was a QB, and it came after the Walsh verbal. Of more concern to me is the 0-4 competing against Cincinnati. It's one thing to be second tier behind A&M, and quite another to be third tier behind Cincinnati. As Ohio's recruiting continues to improve, I would think the next goal should be coming closer to parity with them.

As far as when Solich requires, you just as well accept it as a given that the quality of recruits will drop (and then if they don't, it will be a pleasant surprise). Even if they pick a current assistant as the new head coach, and the rest of the staff stays intact, there will probably be a drop off. That's just what happens. Now, if the the new coach maintains the tradition, the quality of recruits will rise back again in a few years.  When Solich took over for Osborne at Nebraska, he was an unknown, and his first few classes were not that great. Slowly, as he built his own reputation, the quality improved. Nebraska, however, unfortunately for them, fired him because of the performance drop that happened when those first couple classes were Seniors, without waiting long enough for the later improved classes to move things back up.

My personal opinion is that if you have to choose between someone that is a great recruiter, and someone that is a great coach, take the coach. The recruiter will do OK for awhile, but will always disappoint you in the end. He builds up expectations, but never achieves them. By contrast, the great coach plugs away, over-achieving with what he has at first, and then slowly his reputation grows, and his recruiting classes catch up. When that happens, you have a solid program, and real achievements.
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L.C.
7/10/2012 11:49 PM
I will add that the one thing about the Ohio classes has been that they have always been solid in the respect that virtually everyone in the class had some ability. Whether the players were sleepers or not, they generally contributed, unless there was an injury. As an example, let's go back and look at the class that he scrounged together at the last minute in 2005.  That class was made up almost exclusively of players who had no other offers, yet, how many of these turned out OK? Hartke, Morsillo, J. Meyers,  Parson, D. White, Leuck, Mitchell, Kenkle, Stuck, J. White, V. Owens, Norwood, Schussler, Reilly, Rodgers, Ferrainolo, B. Peterson, Philibin, Renfro, Turner, Lawrence, E. Jackson, B. Jones, Febus, Mellot, and Farley.

Farley never showed, and Mellot got homesick. Among the rest, almost all of them contributed, and some would have contributed a lot more if they hadn't faced injury issues, such as Ferrainolo, Philibin, and B. Jones. They may not have, for the most part, been 3-4 star players, but they were all solid. That is why Ohio has so much depth now compared to what they had - all of the recruits are contributing.

That's what makes it exciting to see these early recruits. If they could find as much talent as they did at the last minute in 2005, among players no one else wanted, how good will the players be that they actually  want as their first choice? Note that in the time I have tracked Ohio recruits, only one recruit has ever had his rating lowered after Ohio offered, and that was from a very high rating to a high rating. Meanwhile every year about 1/3 of the class has their rating increased when the services look at the Senior season. That tells me that Ohio is doing a very accurate job of finding talent, and that, given another year of film, other people see it, too.

The seven recruits that Ohio has already will all go into their Senior season with good ratings. Assuming that this class is typical, about 1/3 of them will play well enough this Fall to have their ratings increased by one or more services between now and January.  When we are all done, I think this is going to be an outstanding class.
Last Edited: 7/10/2012 11:59:06 PM by L.C.
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L.C.
7/11/2012 12:54 PM
Time to re-post the updated table:

               By June    Jul      Aug     Sept      Oct       Nov       Dec       Jan       Feb
2005           0            0         0          0           0          0           0         20         6
2006           0            0         0          0           0          3           1           9         6
2007           0            0         0          1           1          1           4           5         9
2008           0            0         0          0           0          0           9           2         9
2009           0            0         0          2           0          3           2           3        11
2010           0            2         1          2           1          0           0           3         7
2011           2            2         3          0           0          0           0           4         5
2012           0            0         0          4           1          1           4           5         4  
2013           1            7

In most years it was January before Ohio had 8 verbals. So far 54 of the 152 players offered by Ohio (if I counted Ted's data correctly) have made a decision, 8 of them for Ohio, or 1/6.75. If that ratio holds for the remaining 98 offers, Ohio would pick up about 14 more, which would probably be OK. The thing is, Ohio's acceptance rate tends to increase later in the year, so the current pace implies that in the end they will get a lot more acceptances than they have positions open. Therefore, in this game of musical chairs, before long they are going to have to start thinking about which offers they might want to withdraw. Usually it is December/January before that happens.
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Doc Bobcat
7/11/2012 1:44 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Time to re-post the updated table:

               By June    Jul      Aug     Sept      Oct       Nov       Dec       Jan       Feb
2005           0            0         0          0           0          0           0         20         6
2006           0            0         0          0           0          3           1           9         6
2007           0            0         0          1           1          1           4           5         9
2008           0            0         0          0           0          0           9           2         9
2009           0            0         0          2           0          3           2           3        11
2010           0            2         1          2           1          0           0           3         7
2011           2            2         3          0           0          0           0           4         5
2012           0            0         0          4           1          1           4           5         4  
2013           1            7

In most years it was January before Ohio had 8 verbals. So far 54 of the 152 players offered by Ohio (if I counted Ted's data correctly) have made a decision, 8 of them for Ohio, or 1/6.75. If that ratio holds for the remaining 98 offers, Ohio would pick up about 14 more, which would probably be OK. The thing is, Ohio's acceptance rate tends to increase later in the year, so the current pace implies that in the end they will get a lot more acceptances than they have positions open. Therefore, in this game of musical chairs, before long they are going to have to start thinking about which offers they might want to withdraw. Usually it is December/January before that happens.


That's a great problem to have.  Withdrawing an offer sounds rude but ya know what they say....ya snooze ya lose.
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L.C.
7/11/2012 1:49 PM
I'm sure almost all of the kids realize that there are more offers than positions, and that it is first come, first served. I say 'almost' because I do remember a kid back in 2006 or so who had an offer for a couple months, and who wasn't pleased when they ran out of room by the time he got around to trying to accept it.

I know if I had an offer from Ohio, as fast as this class is filling, I'd be thinking seriously about making a decision soon, which is precisely why this class could fill completely surprisingly quickly.
Last Edited: 7/11/2012 1:54:50 PM by L.C.
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Monroe Slavin
7/11/2012 7:05 PM
How does it work with offers?  If a prospect accepts, are we committed?  Or is an 'offer' really an offer to the prospect to offer to enroll with us...such that we can turn the prospect down
 
In terms of our needs and how our class fills, do we withdraw offers if a need has been filled or if we come to feel that a given prospect is not right for us and/or another prospect is better and/or more likely to commit to us?

How do 'offers' sit as we begin to fill the class?
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brucecuth
7/11/2012 8:24 PM
Monroe, it is my understanding that there is absolutely nothing binding on the part of either party until a signed LOI is received by the university.  What is being offered is a full scholarship (tuition, room and board) in exchange for the kid's agreement to participate in an intercollegiate sport. 

There could be any number of reasons why a program may have second thoughts after offering.  Re-evaluation of talent, serious injury, character issues, grades come to mind.  I may be a little off on this, but I recall 20 years ago that we were able to sign Jeff Boals to a scholarship only after he injured his knee and Stanford withdrew its offer.  The offer also may be withdrawn in such a way that it is made to appear to be the kid's decision.  Schools don't want to have the reputation for withdrawing scholarship offers.

And we all know that when a kid  "commits" these days, it all too often doesn't mean much (as evidenced by the term "soft commitment," which really is no commitment at all).  As we've seen, it is the kid's decision many more times  than the school's that gets reversed.

I know years ago Pat Summit at Tennessee had a reputation for really pressuring certain kids by saying something like "this scholarship is here for you to accept today, but I cannot guarantee it will still be available tomorrow..."  I think last year a kid from my old high school in cleveland committed to Michigan to play football.  After committing, however, he said he still planned to visit other schools.  Brady Hoke promptly withdrew his scholarship offer.  
Last Edited: 7/11/2012 8:37:08 PM by brucecuth
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BuddyLee
7/11/2012 8:26 PM
Correct that everything is non binding right now, both from the player's side and the school.  That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more of these commits decide to go elsewhere if they blow up their senior year and a bigger school comes calling.  But one other benefit of having so many early commitments is that now they can help recruit their buddies from other high schools to join them here.
Last Edited: 7/11/2012 8:27:07 PM by BuddyLee
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L.C.
7/11/2012 9:19 PM
The impression I have is that at each position the coaches have a target number in mind. For example, let's pretend that they have decided they want 4 offensive linemen this year. Right now they have three offensive linemen, so they are getting pretty close to my fictitious target. Therefore in my example they would probably start calling the remaining line recruits and saying "we have only one more position for an offensive linemen - it will go to the first one that verbals, and once someone takes the last one, it's gone." There is some flexibility, and to a certain extent they want the best players they can get, so if in response to the calls, 2 more linemen say yes, they may go with 5 linemen instead of 4. The closer they get to 85 total, though, the less flexibility they have.

I would agree that they don't want a reputation for pulling scholarships. As far as pulling due to injury, note that after accepting the Ohio offer a few years ago, Mario Dovell blew out his knee, and Ohio stood with their offer, and he redshirted as a Freshman while he rehabbed. On the other hand, they do fill up, and there really isn't any good way to get around that. The best they can do, I think, is to make sure the the offers are kept up to date on how close things are to being pulled. I can only think of one kid upset when his offer was pulled, so I think they must do a pretty good job.
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Monroe Slavin
7/11/2012 9:50 PM
Thanks for the responses.

It's clearly a balancing act...one that GOTFrank and staff seem to do well with.  Then, Coach and staff, do a fine job of player development.

The emphasis, lately, on guys who will stay with the program has helped a lot.  Kids who yearn for constant national TV coverage and 75,000 in the stands at every game won't be happy with us.
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Kinggeorge4
7/18/2012 11:02 AM
Since we are upto 9 verbals (awesome!), which position do you all think will have the highest number of recruits and why?
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Business_Cat
7/18/2012 11:32 AM
Kinggeorge4 (George Cheripko) wrote:expand_more
Since we are upto 9 verbals (awesome!), which position do you all think will have the highest number of recruits and why?


WR. I'm no L.C. but i believe that this position will fill fastest because most WR can potentialy play the most positions, so you get a lot of value from one recruit.
Last Edited: 7/18/2012 11:32:43 AM by Business_Cat
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MonroeClassmate
7/18/2012 6:13 PM
Business_Cat wrote:expand_more
Since we are upto 9 verbals (awesome!), which position do you all think will have the highest number of recruits and why?


WR. I'm no L.C. but i believe that this position will fill fastest because most WR can potentialy play the most positions, so you get a lot of value from one recruit.


Ah, B-Cat, you should know that QB has the best HS athletes to provide the most diversity for a team.  Check out Roeback, HS QB to TE and not a skinny TE, I might add.  About the only two positions that you'll not find freshman and sophomore former HS QB's is OL and DL--but they might be there by the fifth year with the Shively, Nelson, Boyd, Jefferson food fest available to them!
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Business_Cat
7/18/2012 6:29 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
Since we are upto 9 verbals (awesome!), which position do you all think will have the highest number of recruits and why?


WR. I'm no L.C. but i believe that this position will fill fastest because most WR can potentialy play the most positions, so you get a lot of value from one recruit.


Ah, B-Cat, you should know that QB has the best HS athletes to provide the most diversity for a team.  Check out Roeback, HS QB to TE and not a skinny TE, I might add.  About the only two positions that you'll not find freshman and sophomore former HS QB's is OL and DL--but they might be there by the fifth year with the Shively, Nelson, Boyd, Jefferson food fest available to them!


Yeah I was too lazy to mention why I didn't pick QB. To me, the question seemed relative to the current situation. In OUr case, we have an abundance of depth at the QB position. The WR role isn't so well defined this year with of the loss LaVon and Dunlop, so I can see the need for those types.  And yeah, that dining hall food will get that freshman 15 on you twice. 
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L.C.
8/4/2012 9:19 AM
Re-posting the updated table:

               By June    Jul      Aug     Sept      Oct       Nov       Dec       Jan       Feb
2005           0            0         0          0           0          0           0         20         6
2006           0            0         0          0           0          3           1           9         6
2007           0            0         0          1           1          1           4           5         9
2008           0            0         0          0           0          0           9           2         9
2009           0            0         0          2           0          3           2           3        11
2010           0            2         1          2           1          0           0           3         7
2011           2            2         3          0           0          0           0           4         5
2012           0            0         0          4           1          1           4           5         4  
2013           1           10

As of now, Ohio is about where they have historically been as of the end of January. If 3-4 more are added in August-September, that will not leave a lot of spaces.
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Monroe Slavin
8/4/2012 1:28 PM

If the classes were strong when we were picking up about half of the lads in Jan and Feb, it could portend a bright future to be filling up a lot in August.

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Valley Cat
8/5/2012 8:56 AM
I love seeing the early commits and have to think that the state of the program causes kids to commit early. In the past an offer from Ohio had to be received with a great. let's wait and see approach. Now when this staff with this on-field result comes calling with IPF plans in their bag and a bowl win kids view the offer differently. Parents and kids have to be drawn to the stability. They have come a long way.
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