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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East
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Ted Thompson
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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 11/19/2018 4:55 PM
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Tried to convert money line to win probability. Please check my math.

  Money line Win Probability
Ball St. 909 9.9%
BG 625 13.8%
Ohio -2500 96.2%
  Probability of all 3 = 1.3%
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 11/19/2018 9:11 PM
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Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
Tried to convert money line to win probability. Please check my math. Money line Win Probability Ball St. 909 9.9% BG 625 13.8% Ohio -2500 96.2% Probability of all 3 = 1.3%
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg
Valley Cat
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Posted: 11/20/2018 7:08 AM
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Ted,
The reality of this stat just made me cancel my Detroit Marriott reservation. Much appreciated.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 11/20/2018 8:59 AM
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Valley Cat wrote:expand_more
Ted,
The reality of this stat just made me cancel my Detroit Marriott reservation. Much appreciated.
If Miami wins tonight, Ohio's chance is 0. If Ball St. wins, Ohio's probability of winning the MAC East improves to 13.3%.
Cats-22
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Posted: 11/20/2018 9:19 AM
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Thanks Ted. Math looks right (assuming they're independent events which I think is the right move).

Teamrankings has Ohio with a 8% chance to win the div, so they must not be modeling the tiebreaker correctly.
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