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Topic: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

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Ted Thompson

11/19/2018 4:55 PM

Tried to convert money line to win probability. Please check my math.

	Money line	Win Probability
Ball St.	909	9.9%
BG	625	13.8%
Ohio	-2500	96.2%
	Probability of all 3 =	1.3%

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BillyTheCat

11/19/2018 9:11 PM

Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more

Tried to convert money line to win probability. Please check my math. Money line Win Probability Ball St. 909 9.9% BG 625 13.8% Ohio -2500 96.2% Probability of all 3 = 1.3%

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg

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Valley Cat

11/20/2018 7:08 AM

Ted,
The reality of this stat just made me cancel my Detroit Marriott reservation. Much appreciated.

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Ted Thompson

11/20/2018 8:59 AM

Valley Cat wrote:expand_more

Ted,
The reality of this stat just made me cancel my Detroit Marriott reservation. Much appreciated.

If Miami wins tonight, Ohio's chance is 0. If Ball St. wins, Ohio's probability of winning the MAC East improves to 13.3%.

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Cats-22

11/20/2018 9:19 AM

Thanks Ted. Math looks right (assuming they're independent events which I think is the right move).

Teamrankings has Ohio with a 8% chance to win the div, so they must not be modeling the tiebreaker correctly.

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