I got Ohio +14.5 and over 46.5pts when the lines opened. I knew the point total would go up but didn't expect by that much. I also thought the spread would thin out, 14.5 seemed generous at the time so a little surprised it moved in the opposite direction.
Think this game comes down to how quickly our offense gets moving. My prediction is that whichever team comes out of the gate fast is going to win. I really like our chances if we can play with the lead.
Here's my non-expert analysis about this. I would think the passing game for a QB is a little harder to get firing than is his ability to scramble. Their QB, Kaliakmanis, is not known for his running (only 250 yards last year). He's also not a very accurate QB, at only 53.9% last year. If we can keep him a little off-balance at the beginning (while also preventing the rushing attack from bursting through), we could get some early stops.
Conversely, Parker was pretty accurate last year at 66.1%, and had more than 1,000 yards on the ground. He didn't really use his legs much in the early, non-conference part of the schedule. In three non-conference games, he only rushed for 107 yards on 31 carries (a 3.45 ypc average and only 35.6 yards per game). Then, he seemed to get more comfortable in the offense. The rest of the way in the MAC (lesser defenses play a factor for sure), he averaged 94.7 yards per game at 7.34 yards per carry. Are we going to see the Parker that was playing lights out at the end of the year? If so, good luck Rutgers. Or are we going to see a more conservative Parker getting a feel for the offense, his new line, and a new receiving corps? In that case, it could be a tough slog for the offense.