Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Ohio's MACC hopes aren't dead yet!
Page: 1 of 1
OhioBobcat
General User
OB
Member Since: 1/20/2006
Post Count: 1,637
person
mail
OhioBobcat
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 4:22 PM
There's been a lot of talk on the board about Ohio already being out of the MACC, which isn't the case at all. Yes, Ohio now needs some help, but Ohio is not out of the MACC race whatsoever. Ohio is still alive and well. The reality is, it's going to boil down to these 3 games:

Ohio vs WMU
Miami vs BG
Miami at Ball State

Ohio must beat WMU, BG must beat Miami and Ball State must beat Miami. Ohio is going to destroy BG and Akron and Miami will beat Akron in the other three games, so it really boils down to the other three matchups. I think Ohio will beat WMU in a good one tonight, leaving BG and Ball State to help seal the deal.
SBH
General User
SBH
Member Since: 12/20/2004
Post Count: 4,677
person
mail
SBH
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 4:50 PM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
Ohio is going to destroy BG and Akron

Haven't you learned not to predict how a Frank Solich team Ohio will perform against any opponent, no matter how weak? Akron taught us that lesson a couple of years ago.
mf279801
General User
M279801
Member Since: 8/6/2010
Location: Newark, DE
Post Count: 2,486
person
mail
mf279801
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 5:37 PM
Yeah...lets look at some math

As of a few minutes ago, the lines are suggesting that Ohio has a 53% chance of beating WMU and BG has a ~13% chance of beating Miami. Taking those together, you get implied odds of 7.4% (moneyline on that parley = +1255)

I can't find lines posted for next week or the week after that yet, but the implied odds for this week closely align with the FPI projected results, so I used their Projected probabilities for the remaining matchups.

These are their projected results for the remaining games:
Ohio vs WMU - Ohio wins 37.2%
Ohio vs BGSU - Ohio wins 82.4%
Ohio vs Akron - Ohio wins 91.4%

Miami vs BGSU - Miami loses 14.5%
Miami vs Akron - Miami loses 6.6%
Miami vs BSU - Miami loses 66%

If we run those numbers out, with Ohio winning out and Miami losing 2 of those 3, we are left with:

(100) * 0.372 * 0.824 * 0.914 * 0.145 * 0.066 * 0.66 =

Ohio has approximately a 2.68% chance of representing the MAC East in Detroit (that works out to a moneyline of ~+3500 or 35/1. In otherwords, a $10 bet would pay out $360).

Good luck!
Mark Lembright '85
General User
ML85
Member Since: 8/22/2010
Location: Highland Heights, OH
Post Count: 2,460
person
mail
Mark Lembright '85
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 10:08 PM
Ummmm...............
Urban Bobcat
General User
UB
Member Since: 9/14/2007
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 857
person
mail
Urban Bobcat
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 10:12 PM
Still in the thick of things!!!
Win our next two and Miami loses out.
OhioBobcat
General User
OB
Member Since: 1/20/2006
Post Count: 1,637
person
mail
OhioBobcat
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 10:15 PM
NOW all the vultures can officially state that Ohio’s MACC hopes are dead. Enjoy
Lande71
General User
L71
Member Since: 9/19/2010
Post Count: 275
person
mail
Lande71
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 10:17 PM
Waiting for ohiobobcat to come up with a way to win this championship. I hate all the predicting. It is worthless drivel.
shabamon
General User
Member Since: 11/17/2006
Location: Cincinnati
Post Count: 7,310
mail
shabamon
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 10:23 PM
Win out and Miami lose out. The only way possible.
MonroeClassmate
General User
MC
Member Since: 8/31/2010
Post Count: 2,323
person
mail
MonroeClassmate
mail
Posted: 11/12/2019 10:41 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
Win out and Miami lose out. The only way possible.
What about Buffalo?
Pataskala
General User
P
Member Since: 7/8/2010
Location: At least six feet away from anybody else
Post Count: 9,465
person
mail
Pataskala
mail
Posted: 11/13/2019 10:11 AM
But they're on life support. Expect the death knell by 11:00 tonight. Best we can hope for is to beat BG and Akron and wait for an outside shot at an early-season bowl game.
Last Edited: 11/13/2019 10:14:20 AM by Pataskala
Bobcat Grad 86
General User
BG86
Member Since: 12/20/2004
Post Count: 1,397
person
mail
Bobcat Grad 86
mail
Posted: 11/13/2019 10:49 AM
OUr hope for a MAC Championship probably ended when I enrolled at OU.
AlumDadDad
General User
Member Since: 10/18/2015
Post Count: 620
mail
AlumDadDad
mail
Posted: 11/13/2019 9:28 PM
Turn out the lights, the party's over. Fiami up 37-3 in first half. Holy cow, we were overrated this year.
Showing Messages: 1 - 12 of 12
MAC News Links



extra small (< 576px)
small (>= 576px)
medium (>= 768px)
large (>= 992px)
x-large (>= 1200px)
xx-large (>= 1400px)