Under Solich, the offense ran an I formation from 2005 to 2010, and then ran the pistol from 2011 to present. The defense ran the Cover-2 along with "read and react" from 2005 to 2012, and then switched to the Cover-4 and "attack and react". Based on that, I divide Solich's time into four eras. I consider 2005 by itself as the transition period, where the instituted their system. 2006-2010 I will call the traditional period, with a combination of the I-formation and the Cover-2. Then 2011-2 were what I will call the Pistol years, with the pistol offense combined with the traditional defense. Finally, we have what I will call the Cover-4 years, with the pistol offense combined with the Cover-4. How did these changes affect things? How successful was Ohio during these various periods?

The easy part is the offense. From 2006-10, with the I-formation, Ohio averaged 24.0 points and 327 yards, about 8th in the MAC. From 2011-present, Ohio has averaged 30.2 points and 417 yards, about 5th in the MAC. That change was hugely successful, obviously.

Now let's look at the defense. From 2006-12, Ohio gave up 23.9 points a game, and 359 yards a game, about 4th in the MAC. From 2013-present Ohio has given up 25.5 points a game, and 391 yards/game, still 4th in MAC in the points category, but down to 6th in the MAC in yards given up. The defensive change has not been a success.

But, points and yards only tell part of the story. How have the wins, MAC East Championships, and Bowl Wins stacked up?

Winning Percentage:
Transition (2005:) 4-7 .364
Traditional (2006-10): 36-29 .554
Pistol (2011-12): 19-8 .704
Cover-4 (2013-present): 51-31 .622

MAC East Championships:
Transition: None
Traditional: 2 of 5 years, 40%
Pistol: 1 of 2 years, 50%
Cover-4: 1 of 7 years, 14%

Bowl Wins:
Transition: none
Traditional: 0-3, 0%
Pistol: 2-2, 100%
Cover 4: 2-5, 40%

MAC East Championships have nearly vanished since Ohio moved to the Cover 4, though Ohio still has been fairly successful outside the MAC.

While I haven't done the research, it is my observation that, since going to the Cover-4, Ohio almost never gets a defensive stop when they need it at the end of close games. They may still win, if the offense can pull it out, or if the other team does something stupid like missing an extra point in OT, but the defense does not seem to come up with the big stop when needed, which is why the MAC East championships have vanished, even though the offense has been outstanding. The last three years, Ohio has averaged 439 yards and 37 points a game, with zero MAC East championships.

Narduzzi was having a lot of success with it in the Big Ten at the time, and it was hot. I think that as time has passed, more weaknesses in it have been exposed. To me it seems that the weaknesses are:
1. The focus on gaps for run defense has meant that if a runner breaks through the line, he is free for a very long run, perhaps going the distance. When Ohio has had very good defensive linemen, and very good linebackers, not many runs have gotten by them. When they have been not quite as good, the number of very long runs has jumped a lot.
2. Since the corners are essentially playing man on man, they better be damn good, or they get burned deep. Ohio has compensated, at time, by backing the cornerbacks off the receivers, but that makes the defense a lot like a prevent defense, and opens them up for high success percentages short to mid-length passes.
3. There is a lot of stress on the outside linebackers, who not only have to cover short passes in the flat, they have to be wary of runs. Having to cover, say, a TE in the flat takes them out of position for run defense.

And given your analysis and anaylatics have you predicted that the next year was going to be our year?

Numbers over years are largely irrelevant because things changes.

Part of the X's and O's is selecting scheme that will optimize the personnel. That is how coaches have come into programs in year 1 and make a night a day difference as talent upgrades can take years.

Think about what Boals is doing in basketball. He doesn't have much to work with meaning no power conference level players and he's already doing a lot better by his coaching. Think Frank's win in Pittsburgh 2005 and winning the MAC East his second season in 2006. That wasn't recruiting. That was coaching.

You might was to let Russ know. See the highlights at 1:50
https://twitter.com/OhioFootball/status/11972281162691256...

Has Ohio ever had a #1 ranked MAC recruiting class? Or hell, even Top 3? Genuinely curious.