A lot depends on how many "P" teams that are currently 4-6 get in. "P" teams will always get the nod over MAC teams. MSU plays Rutgers and MD so they're likely to get in. UNC and NCSt have soft games this week and play each other next week so one of them will likely get to 6. And Stanford has a shot with home games vs Cal and ND. Also CUSA and Mountain West might each have 3-4 extra eligible teams that probably would be picked over MAC teams because they're closer to most bowl game sites and may travel well.
Bowl tie ins are what counts as that determines who is in the pool. A C-USA team will not get a MAC. slot regardless of their record being better than a MAC team. Now when it comes to slots that a conference can’t fill, that’s a different thing. At least that’s the way I understand it.
Right, the MAC has at least five slots to fill. Then if the conferences with primary affiliations to the Quick Lane Bowl (Big Ten and ACC) and the Frisco Bowl (AAC and Mount West) are unable to meet their obligations to fill those bowls, the MAC gets those spots. Then after that, if there are bowls that still need teams, they can pick from whoever is left among bowl eligible teams from any conference. I really can't see the MAC getting less than six bowls, and I can't see Ohio not being in those six.
But there's always a lot of horse-trading that goes on. That's one reason we wound up at the Independence Bowl a few years ago. Depends on which teams are in the mix and who can make the best offer.
If the Quick Lane Bowl came open, WMU or CMU would probably wind up there, which could open up another slot for a MAC team. But the MAC might have to trade it away, too.
Right, the MAC might end up agreeing to go to different bowls rather than the ones they are committed to, but regardless, they are guaranteed that many slots.
And now the way Toledo is playing, even though they will be bowl eligible, Ohio is looking like a more attractive team. The Rockets very well might end up 3-5 in the MAC. Only Miami, Central Michigan and Western Michigan are definitely ahead of Ohio in the pecking order.