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I don't see a trail of tears up in Kalamazoo after PJ Fleck took them to the Cotton Bowl. I'm tired of this notion that Ohio will just sink back into a blackhole of D1 football simply because Frank Solich leaves, or a 3 year coach who takes Ohio to a NY6 game leaves.
This is probably not the best example you could have chosen. WMU's historical win percentage since 1869 is 55.6%. Since 1960, WMU has won 52.5% of the time.
Under Lester, so far, WMU has won 52.6% of the time. No, he's not been a disaster, but what he has done is revert to the historical norm for WMU. I think that if you looked at a lot of examples, you'd find that that is what normally happens, things revert to the historical norm.