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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Way too early look at 2020
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AlumDadDad
1/10/2020 11:05 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
So basically, you're projecting this ...

Not exactly. Surely Ohio will not lose to Texas State a second time, so I will change that one. I also think that in addition to losing to UB, they go 2-2 on the road in the MAC. That figures out to 7.5-5.5 with 5 pickem games. Go 3-2 and they are 8-4. Go 1-4, they get to 6-6. Go 4-1 they are 9-3.

NC Central - W
at BC - L
Marshall - W/L
at Texas St - W

Akron - W
BG - W
UB - L
EMU - W

at Miami - L/W
at Kent - L/W
at CMU - L/w
at Toledo - L/W

I expect Buffalo to lose a game, and given that they play in Athens, a win by Ohio is possible, and certainly BC is not so good that they are out of the question. In my mind it depends more on the defense than anything. If they can get stops when they need them in close games, the Bobcats can win any of these. If they can't, then it will be at the low end of my projections.
My put on this would be that UB in Athens is a pick-em. Based on my opinion, 5 of our 8 conference games could easily go either way. Parity - we have arrived.
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Bobcat1996
1/10/2020 2:37 PM
Yes parity has arrived and except for maybe Akron, all teams can beat any other team on a given day.
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Sam bobcat
1/11/2020 11:21 PM
AlumDadDad wrote:expand_more
I also see great potential for our defense next year. The key there will be for the DL to keep the opponents OL off our linebackers. A healty, in-shape Daxon should help there. If LBs like Thompson, Dorsa, and McCrory are free to make plays, then we shouldn't have to rely on a safety to be out top tackler.
Conner has been second guessed and over looked his whole life. Even finishing the season second in tackles behind Hagan gets him little respect. He may not look like the 3 linebackers you named, but I have no doubt he’ll make some plays next year too!
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L.C.
1/12/2020 12:15 PM
Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more
I also see great potential for our defense next year. The key there will be for the DL to keep the opponents OL off our linebackers. A healty, in-shape Daxon should help there. If LBs like Thompson, Dorsa, and McCrory are free to make plays, then we shouldn't have to rely on a safety to be out top tackler.
Conner has been second guessed and over looked his whole life. Even finishing the season second in tackles behind Hagan gets him little respect. He may not look like the 3 linebackers you named, but I have no doubt he’ll make some plays next year too!

Just keep in mind the way it works psychologically. It is a team game, not an individual game. If the defense as a group had been dominant this year, people would be looking at the players that accomplished it, and excited about having them back. When the defense wasn't dominant for most of the season, people instead look to to the young players in the hopes of a dominant defense in the future. Also remember that people especially remember and appreciate the players that turn things around, and go from a weak defense to a strong one, like the 2006 team which turned a 4-7 2005 team into a MAC East Champion team in 2006. I bet most people who have been around that long can name at least 6 of the players on the 2006 team, but those same people couldn't name 6 from the 2007 team.

The defense needs to work hard over the winter and came back in the fall with an attitude, and make a name for themselves. Blowing up BG and Akron, and then getting some key stops against Nevada is a place to build from. Now they need to come back and lead Ohio to a MACC, and everyone will remember them a long time.
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bshot44
1/13/2020 2:43 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I also see great potential for our defense next year. The key there will be for the DL to keep the opponents OL off our linebackers. A healty, in-shape Daxon should help there. If LBs like Thompson, Dorsa, and McCrory are free to make plays, then we shouldn't have to rely on a safety to be out top tackler.
Conner has been second guessed and over looked his whole life. Even finishing the season second in tackles behind Hagan gets him little respect. He may not look like the 3 linebackers you named, but I have no doubt he’ll make some plays next year too!

Just keep in mind the way it works psychologically. It is a team game, not an individual game. If the defense as a group had been dominant this year, people would be looking at the players that accomplished it, and excited about having them back. When the defense wasn't dominant for most of the season, people instead look to to the young players in the hopes of a dominant defense in the future. Also remember that people especially remember and appreciate the players that turn things around, and go from a weak defense to a strong one, like the 2006 team which turned a 4-7 2005 team into a MAC East Champion team in 2006. I bet most people who have been around that long can name at least 6 of the players on the 2006 team, but those same people couldn't name 6 from the 2007 team.

The defense needs to work hard over the winter and came back in the fall with an attitude, and make a name for themselves. Blowing up BG and Akron, and then getting some key stops against Nevada is a place to build from. Now they need to come back and lead Ohio to a MACC, and everyone will remember them a long time.
If Ohio wins the MACC in 2020, I'll not only remember the defense ... I'll remember the 17th string long-snapper.

The defense as a whole has been head-scratching since that 2016 season. I cannot for the life of me figure out why our secondary is as atrocious as it is. The refusal to turn their heads in coverage baffles the s**t out of me. I hope I don't have to watch another Motley get beat with their back to the QB next year ... or watch as a safety gets carried down the field for 12 extra yards because all they're trying to do is strip the ball rather than tackle the ball-carrier. I'm all for trying to cause turnovers ... but trying to decapitate people or just stripping the ball only gets your further from the fundamental foundation of just simple tackling. It's not like they were great ballhawks, either. Only 5 INTs all year. Gross.

I'd also like to see Will Evans and someone else become a more effective edge rusher. Conrad showed some promise with 4 sacks. Hell, just find anyone to pressure the QB. Ohio had only 21 sacks on the year ... less than 2 a game. The LBs only had 6 of those.

This unit is certainly in need of an overhaul. I'm not sure it's 100% personnel or if it's coaching/strategy? Either way ... there's room for serious improvement. If they're just a tick better this year ... Ohio might have beat Miami, WMU and NIU and potentially won the MAC. That's how little the separation was this year.

Not so sure it's as razor thin next year ... the league "should" be much better, especially the East. So the defense is just one piece of the puzzle. But if they don't improve ... there's only so much the offense and special teams (which both have serious questions) can do to mask their inefficiencies.
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oubobcatjohn
1/13/2020 9:58 PM
I think we should be ok with the running backs and receiver core. My guess is the Bobcats get back to the bread and butter with the youth at Qb. That is they run the ball down the other teams throat from game 1 until the bowl game. That is when Ohio is at its best. We got a little pass happy the last couple years and that our MO. We run the ball like we did in the bowl game we should help the defense stay off the field. The key is the defense stepping up and forcing more turnovers and getting stops on third downs. The lines improve we should be more than good.
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ytownbobcat
1/14/2020 10:23 AM
In our defense linebackers are supposed to make lots of tackles. If they are bringing down ball carriers 7-10 yards down field then they are simply "chasers". Hold your ground, shed blockers, be physical.
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Sam bobcat
1/14/2020 12:57 PM
#35 has been the strong side linebacker on the field for the last 3 bowl wins. If they had a better one he’d be out there. Lol unbelievable. And doing it with a 3.98 gpa in pre med. kid has out worked and out performed all y’all. Keep doubting!
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Doc Bobcat
1/14/2020 7:33 PM
Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more
#35 has been the strong side linebacker on the field for the last 3 bowl wins. If they had a better one he’d be out there. Lol unbelievable. And doing it with a 3.98 gpa in pre med. kid has out worked and out performed all y’all. Keep doubting!
And probably a Captain next year.
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Rufusbobcat94
1/18/2020 10:32 AM
Agree with comments on the defense and the bowl game. Young players including LBs Thompson, McCrory, and DT McCracken looked explosive at times.

S Jarren Hampton had really good moments this year and I'd say is one of the top returning defensive players from last year. I look forward to seeing how he does next season.

A key defensive player for next season is Kaieem Caesar. He has a nice blend of power and agility for his size. He was hurt last offseason I heard...hope he is all in this offseason and comes back in 2020 a beast.

I'd like to see the defensive play calling change to be more aggressive. During the bowl we appeared to blitz more and had some good moments. Our defense is very easy to read, and the weakest elements can be exploited regularly.

We need to get more pressure from our defensive ends. DE Austin Conrad, a backup to start last season, is the clear number one going into 2020 and the best playmaker. Ogun-semore still has two seasons and I think there is still a chance he is an explosive player.

The offensive playmakers as a group should be in the conversation for the best in the MAC: i'll take our group of TEs, RBs, and WRs over anyone else in the MAC. Our interior line should be strong. The offense would probably look different under Kurtis Rourke, at least early on, because I heard that, compared with Nathan at this stage of his career, Kurtis is a better passer but not as good of a runner. Kurtis inherits a ton of skill players and could flourish early on.

I heard QB CJ Harris was an early Enrollee and is a dual threat which would fit our recent offensive style...
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Doc Bobcat
1/18/2020 7:39 PM
This year and it all boiled down to OUr D.

Not bad but not championship material.

Next year with an improved D I think it all boils down to OUr QB.

Stay tuned.
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bshot44
1/19/2020 12:28 AM
Doc Bobcat wrote:expand_more
This year and it all boiled down to OUr D.

Not bad but not championship material.

Next year with an improved D I think it all boils down to OUr QB.

Stay tuned.
I think it'll also boil down, once again, to coaching too.

Gotta find a way to win meaningful games in November. Been Achilles heel last three years for sure ... and many other seasons
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71 BOBCAT
1/26/2020 9:33 AM
Let's suppose our new QB's completion % is at 70% or above, an improvement over the 60% of his predecessor.
Would this stat change any ones prediction for 2020?




GO BOBCATS
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L.C.
1/26/2020 2:48 PM
71 BOBCAT wrote:expand_more
Let's suppose our new QB's completion % is at 70% or above, an improvement over the 60% of his predecessor.
Would this stat change any ones prediction for 2020?




GO BOBCATS

If you told me that the defense would get stops 70% or above of the time when the need a stop in the last 2 minutes of the game, that would change my prediction.
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L.C.
6/19/2020 6:48 PM
Just in case there is football this year, I thought I'd update my predictions":
East:
1. Buffalo
2. Ohio
3. Kent, Miami (tie)
5. BG
6. Akron

West
1. CMU
2. Ball State
3. WMU, Toledo (tie)
5. EMU
6. NIU

Much depends on how Ohio fares at QB this year. If whoever wins the starting job is very good, Ohio could move ahead of Buffalo, since the game is in Athens. If the QB is just average, Ohio could end up 4th. BG and Akron will continue to be far behind the other 10 teams. In the West, parity continues to rule. There is not much separation between CMU and NIU, so really, you could put six names in a hat and pick an order that way, and probably do just as well.
Last Edited: 6/19/2020 6:49:28 PM by L.C.
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MonroeClassmate
6/19/2020 11:10 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Just in case there is football this year, I thought I'd update my predictions":
East:
1. Buffalo
2. Ohio
3. Kent, Miami (tie)
5. BG
6. Akron

West
1. CMU
2. Ball State
3. WMU, Toledo (tie)
5. EMU
6. NIU

Much depends on how Ohio fares at QB this year. \
Curious why the team that won the conference in '19 with a freshman QB who perhaps will continue to develop, is not the team to beat in the east? Did they lose all their skill players on offense?
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OhioBobcat
6/20/2020 10:27 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Just in case there is football this year, I thought I'd update my predictions":
East:
1. Buffalo
2. Ohio
3. Kent, Miami (tie)
5. BG
6. Akron

West
1. CMU
2. Ball State
3. WMU, Toledo (tie)
5. EMU
6. NIU

Much depends on how Ohio fares at QB this year. If whoever wins the starting job is very good, Ohio could move ahead of Buffalo, since the game is in Athens. If the QB is just average, Ohio could end up 4th. BG and Akron will continue to be far behind the other 10 teams. In the West, parity continues to rule. There is not much separation between CMU and NIU, so really, you could put six names in a hat and pick an order that way, and probably do just as well.

I'd flip Ohio and Buffalo around in the East. Buffalo simply can't win in Athens, and guess what, that's where this year's game will be played and will decide the East champion.
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UpSan Bobcat
6/20/2020 12:47 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
Just in case there is football this year, I thought I'd update my predictions":
East:
1. Buffalo
2. Ohio
3. Kent, Miami (tie)
5. BG
6. Akron

West
1. CMU
2. Ball State
3. WMU, Toledo (tie)
5. EMU
6. NIU

Much depends on how Ohio fares at QB this year. \
Curious why the team that won the conference in '19 with a freshman QB who perhaps will continue to develop, is not the team to beat in the east? Did they lose all their skill players on offense?
Miami had only one senior starter last year on offense and four on defense (plus their kicker and punter, who were really good). I think three of the seniors were All-MAC performers, but still, they have a lot back. I think maybe the biggest reason Vegas might not like their odds is because last year they probably outperformed their talent by winning a lot of close games. Their offense ranked pretty low (second-to-last in yards in MAC) and their defense just above average.
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Bobcat1996
6/20/2020 4:16 PM
One advantage Miami has over Ohio, is that they host Ball St., where Ohio travels to Toledo. The other two crossover games with Eastern and Central are the same as the Bobcats. Miami avoids the Rockets once again. Toledo last played the Redhawks in 2011. Only the MAC office knows how that scheduling quirk happens.
Last Edited: 6/20/2020 4:17:13 PM by Bobcat1996
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Rufusbobcat94
6/20/2020 7:01 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
I also see great potential for our defense next year. The key there will be for the DL to keep the opponents OL off our linebackers. A healty, in-shape Daxon should help there. If LBs like Thompson, Dorsa, and McCrory are free to make plays, then we shouldn't have to rely on a safety to be out top tackler.
Conner has been second guessed and over looked his whole life. Even finishing the season second in tackles behind Hagan gets him little respect. He may not look like the 3 linebackers you named, but I have no doubt he’ll make some plays next year too!

Just keep in mind the way it works psychologically. It is a team game, not an individual game. If the defense as a group had been dominant this year, people would be looking at the players that accomplished it, and excited about having them back. When the defense wasn't dominant for most of the season, people instead look to to the young players in the hopes of a dominant defense in the future. Also remember that people especially remember and appreciate the players that turn things around, and go from a weak defense to a strong one, like the 2006 team which turned a 4-7 2005 team into a MAC East Champion team in 2006. I bet most people who have been around that long can name at least 6 of the players on the 2006 team, but those same people couldn't name 6 from the 2007 team.

The defense needs to work hard over the winter and came back in the fall with an attitude, and make a name for themselves. Blowing up BG and Akron, and then getting some key stops against Nevada is a place to build from. Now they need to come back and lead Ohio to a MACC, and everyone will remember them a long time.
If Ohio wins the MACC in 2020, I'll not only remember the defense ... I'll remember the 17th string long-snapper.

The defense as a whole has been head-scratching since that 2016 season. I cannot for the life of me figure out why our secondary is as atrocious as it is. The refusal to turn their heads in coverage baffles the s**t out of me. I hope I don't have to watch another Motley get beat with their back to the QB next year ... or watch as a safety gets carried down the field for 12 extra yards because all they're trying to do is strip the ball rather than tackle the ball-carrier. I'm all for trying to cause turnovers ... but trying to decapitate people or just stripping the ball only gets your further from the fundamental foundation of just simple tackling. It's not like they were great ballhawks, either. Only 5 INTs all year. Gross.

I'd also like to see Will Evans and someone else become a more effective edge rusher. Conrad showed some promise with 4 sacks. Hell, just find anyone to pressure the QB. Ohio had only 21 sacks on the year ... less than 2 a game. The LBs only had 6 of those.

This unit is certainly in need of an overhaul. I'm not sure it's 100% personnel or if it's coaching/strategy? Either way ... there's room for serious improvement. If they're just a tick better this year ... Ohio might have beat Miami, WMU and NIU and potentially won the MAC. That's how little the separation was this year.

Not so sure it's as razor thin next year ... the league "should" be much better, especially the East. So the defense is just one piece of the puzzle. But if they don't improve ... there's only so much the offense and special teams (which both have serious questions) can do to mask their inefficiencies.
My favorite part of any post this year: 'If Ohio wins the MACC in 2020, I'll not only remember the defense ... I'll remember the 17th string long-snapper.'
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Rufusbobcat94
6/20/2020 7:22 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Ohio will return most of the offense (except the QB and Tackles), and almost all of the starting defense (except Hagan and Baker). Much depends on two things. First, can Kurtis Rourke step in and be effective, or alternately, can a transfer appear who can step in and be effective? Second, how good with the defense be? The defense returns almost the entire defense, but the defense was not good for most of the season. It improved against BG and Akron, though it's hard to tell how much, since both were awful. More importantly, they came up with some key stops against Nevada.

Best case scenario, I see the offense continuing to be potent, and the defense being more effective, resulting in a team that is comparable to 2017-8. Worse case I see a team that blends back into the middle of the MAC East.

How about the rest of the MAC? I see the East being far stronger than the West in 2020. The West will have remarkable parity again, and anyone can win it, but none of the teams will be outstanding.

In the East, Buffalo, Kent State, and Miami will all be much better than this year. Akron and BG will also improve a bit. I see Buffalo as far better than anyone else in the MAC, with Miami, Ohio, and Kent competing for 2-4th place. I think all four will be better than any team in the West.

If I had to pick today, it would be:
West
1. CMU
2. Ball St
3. Toledo
4. WMU
5. NIU
6. EMU

East
1. Buffalo
2. Kent St
3. Miami
4. Ohio
5. BG
6. Akron

Edit - I decided not to look quite so far out. 20202 just seemed too far away. ;)
Another fine analysis by L.C.

I like Ohio in the underdog roll.

On Offense, Ohio has had perhaps a better player at a skill position than we have this year in the Solich era, like Papi White, Dorian Brown, Sebastian Smith, LaVon Brazill etc, but the group of skill position players are arguably the best in the MAC on the whole in 2020. And they all complement each other so well. And there is crazy depth. I will take Hooks, Buckner, and Cox over any other WR corp in the MAC. If given the looks, Hooks will blow up the MAC this year I will take Ty Walton or the next Ohio WR over any other MAC team's 4th WR. Tuggle is second-string and may be the best MAC RB outside of Buffalo's Patterson or the kid from Toledo. And then there is the starter Allison. The Luehrman bros are reliable outlets and can are solid blockers. We have quality interior linemen and depth. Can the QB get our talent the ball without killing us?

The thing that KILLS me about the defense is they are not aggressive enough. And they are very predictable. In last year's bowl game, in the first half, we really let loose with some blitz's and we were so good. Who cares if we are conservative and give up 35 points a game on average? Maybe time of possession is the only advantage to inevitable slow death? The greatest LB corps in the Solich era for my money is Blair Brown, Chad Moore, and Poling. If I was gonna make a list of the top 10 most underrated players in the Solich era, Chad Moore is near the top. But the 2020 group has a chance to be great-it is a nice blend of experience in Dorsa and Connor. Keye Thompson, mark it, is an NFL draft pick if he continues on this trajectory. And young dudes like Jack McCrory are coming on strong, just watch the bowl game.

The absolute key to the defense this year is what we get from the DT position. I really think Caesar can be an impact player, with Coleman and daxon, and a few frosh/Sophs this group could be significantly improved.

Outside of Conrad, the DE's need to do more.

Jarren Hampton will be an all-MAC performer. One of the best 2020 safeties in the MAC.

Jamal Hudson, if healthy, is an NFL prospect. Marlin Brooks is a really nice corner, All-MAC
Last Edited: 6/20/2020 7:33:29 PM by Rufusbobcat94
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Bobcat1996
6/20/2020 9:33 PM
Rufus I agree with alot of your statements, especially the depth of Ohio this season. Hoping it all comes together in Oct/November.
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L.C.
6/22/2020 5:37 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
Curious why the team that won the conference in '19 with a freshman QB who perhaps will continue to develop, is not the team to beat in the east? Did they lose all their skill players on offense?

They lost little on Offense, but they lost a fair amount on Defense. Certainly they will be in the running for this year. If you look at a couple of sources, while they won the MACC, they were not the best team in the MAC.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28497018... Connelly's final SP+ for last year has the best teams in the MAC as:
Ohio +3.7
Buffalo -2.4
CMU -4.4
Ball State -4.5
WMU -4.9
EMU -8.6
Miami -9.2

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2019/confer... /
Sagarin has it (using his Predictor ratings):
Buffalo 65.79
Ohio 65.60
WMU 65.48
Ball State 61.37
Miami 60.79

https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf
From Massey we have some composite ratings:
Buffalo 61
Miami, OH 74
Ohio 77
WMU 79
Kent 82
CMU 88

So, pick your poison. None have Miami as the top team. I tend to look more at numbers from Bill Connelly, and from PFF. Here's PFF's ratings of college quarterbacks last year.
https://www.pff.com/news/college-pff-rankings-starting-qu...
Gabbert comes in at #100, middle of the MAC. Of course, a lot of QBs make their biggest improvement from their first year to their second. We shall see how it goes.

Also, from PFF, the Offensive line grades: Miami at 88, Ohio way down at 39
https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-130...

If you look at the stats from last year, Miami's offense sucked:
https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=...

Meanwhile, Ohio's offense was the best in the MAC, but their defense let them down at critical times, and cost several games (Marshall, NIU, WMU). Ohio's defense mostly returns, all but Hagan, Popp, and Cole Baker. If they can use their experience to dominate, Ohio will be very good, but if not, it could be a long season.
Last Edited: 6/22/2020 5:44:12 PM by L.C.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
6/23/2020 12:06 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Curious why the team that won the conference in '19 with a freshman QB who perhaps will continue to develop, is not the team to beat in the east? Did they lose all their skill players on offense?

They lost little on Offense, but they lost a fair amount on Defense. Certainly they will be in the running for this year. If you look at a couple of sources, while they won the MACC, they were not the best team in the MAC.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28497018... Connelly's final SP+ for last year has the best teams in the MAC as:
Ohio +3.7
Buffalo -2.4
CMU -4.4
Ball State -4.5
WMU -4.9
EMU -8.6
Miami -9.2

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2019/confer... /
Sagarin has it (using his Predictor ratings):
Buffalo 65.79
Ohio 65.60
WMU 65.48
Ball State 61.37
Miami 60.79

https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf
From Massey we have some composite ratings:
Buffalo 61
Miami, OH 74
Ohio 77
WMU 79
Kent 82
CMU 88

So, pick your poison. None have Miami as the top team. I tend to look more at numbers from Bill Connelly, and from PFF. Here's PFF's ratings of college quarterbacks last year.
https://www.pff.com/news/college-pff-rankings-starting-qu...
Gabbert comes in at #100, middle of the MAC. Of course, a lot of QBs make their biggest improvement from their first year to their second. We shall see how it goes.

Also, from PFF, the Offensive line grades: Miami at 88, Ohio way down at 39
https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-130...

If you look at the stats from last year, Miami's offense sucked:
https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=...

Meanwhile, Ohio's offense was the best in the MAC, but their defense let them down at critical times, and cost several games (Marshall, NIU, WMU). Ohio's defense mostly returns, all but Hagan, Popp, and Cole Baker. If they can use their experience to dominate, Ohio will be very good, but if not, it could be a long season.
All these stats are great, but what we saw with our own eyes tells a different story. Overall, our offense was fairly powerful, but numbers were grossly inflated by meaningless games against completely inept Akron and BG teams at the end of the season.

Against Miami, we racked up yards, but we turned the ball over at key points, missed a FG and couldn't keep Miami out of the backfield on key downs (this was a problem the entire game). Nor could we muster even a first down with the game on the line and time to work at the end. Home Loss.

Our offense ended up scoring a lot of points versus WMU, but getting shut out in half 1 certainly didn't help. costly turnover leads to WMU td. offense chance in OT was fruitless. Home loss.

Only scoring 25 at home vs La, 7 of them after a turnover that set us up at their 2. Blowout home loss.

14 points in regulation against Buffalo. 10 against Pitt. Our offense took a lot of long vacations.

There is simply no statistic, objective as it may seem, that overcomes the fact that we were 6-6 and lost several home games. We have to get better on D, yes, but the offense has to show up against good teams to have a chance to win the conference. Of course, there HAS to be some regression to the mean regarding turnovers... especially how few we forced on D and how sloppy we were on offense. That was an anomaly on both sides of the ball that I hope will turn in our favor in 2020.

And then again... I don't think there will even be a season, so there's that.
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UpSan Bobcat
6/23/2020 3:10 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
Curious why the team that won the conference in '19 with a freshman QB who perhaps will continue to develop, is not the team to beat in the east? Did they lose all their skill players on offense?

They lost little on Offense, but they lost a fair amount on Defense. Certainly they will be in the running for this year. If you look at a couple of sources, while they won the MACC, they were not the best team in the MAC.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28497018... Connelly's final SP+ for last year has the best teams in the MAC as:
Ohio +3.7
Buffalo -2.4
CMU -4.4
Ball State -4.5
WMU -4.9
EMU -8.6
Miami -9.2

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2019/confer... /
Sagarin has it (using his Predictor ratings):
Buffalo 65.79
Ohio 65.60
WMU 65.48
Ball State 61.37
Miami 60.79

https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf
From Massey we have some composite ratings:
Buffalo 61
Miami, OH 74
Ohio 77
WMU 79
Kent 82
CMU 88

So, pick your poison. None have Miami as the top team. I tend to look more at numbers from Bill Connelly, and from PFF. Here's PFF's ratings of college quarterbacks last year.
https://www.pff.com/news/college-pff-rankings-starting-qu...
Gabbert comes in at #100, middle of the MAC. Of course, a lot of QBs make their biggest improvement from their first year to their second. We shall see how it goes.

Also, from PFF, the Offensive line grades: Miami at 88, Ohio way down at 39
https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-130...

If you look at the stats from last year, Miami's offense sucked:
https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=...

Meanwhile, Ohio's offense was the best in the MAC, but their defense let them down at critical times, and cost several games (Marshall, NIU, WMU). Ohio's defense mostly returns, all but Hagan, Popp, and Cole Baker. If they can use their experience to dominate, Ohio will be very good, but if not, it could be a long season.
All these stats are great, but what we saw with our own eyes tells a different story. Overall, our offense was fairly powerful, but numbers were grossly inflated by meaningless games against completely inept Akron and BG teams at the end of the season.

Against Miami, we racked up yards, but we turned the ball over at key points, missed a FG and couldn't keep Miami out of the backfield on key downs (this was a problem the entire game). Nor could we muster even a first down with the game on the line and time to work at the end. Home Loss.

Our offense ended up scoring a lot of points versus WMU, but getting shut out in half 1 certainly didn't help. costly turnover leads to WMU td. offense chance in OT was fruitless. Home loss.

Only scoring 25 at home vs La, 7 of them after a turnover that set us up at their 2. Blowout home loss.

14 points in regulation against Buffalo. 10 against Pitt. Our offense took a lot of long vacations.

There is simply no statistic, objective as it may seem, that overcomes the fact that we were 6-6 and lost several home games. We have to get better on D, yes, but the offense has to show up against good teams to have a chance to win the conference. Of course, there HAS to be some regression to the mean regarding turnovers... especially how few we forced on D and how sloppy we were on offense. That was an anomaly on both sides of the ball that I hope will turn in our favor in 2020.

And then again... I don't think there will even be a season, so there's that.
Every team in the East had games against Akron and Bowling Green that made overall stats look better. Ohio played three good defensive non-conference opponents and several good MAC defenses. It balances out, and Ohio still ranked as the best offense. Naturally, the Bobcats didn't score as many points against the good defenses. If they did, they wouldn't be good defenses.
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