So this needs to happen:
1. All of Ohio, Kent, Buffalo & Akron need to be healthy enough to play this week. Considering that any single one of the four ends the possibility and Ohio and Kent are currently dealing with known Covid issues I think a reasonable guess for that game happening is maybe 50% and the Buffalo game 90%.
2. Ohio has to beat Kent. We don't know Rourke's status but this is a road game and if he is presumed unlikely to play like last week then I'm thinking we are about a four or five point underdog. The implied chance for a four point dog is 35%.
3. Akron needs to beat Buffalo. This maybe is in the single digits. I think about 8% is a good estimate.
So the odds of the game results all working in OUr favor are then according to my estimates (.50*.90*.35*.08) about 1%. But apparently we don't necessarily win the division if this occurs. It sounds like the MAC has just not yet figured out how to interpret its own rules in that scenario. So this also needs to happen:
4. The MAC rules that this sort of tie but not really tied tiebreaker goes in Ohio's favor.
Then of course to win the MAC championship:
5. Ohio would have to beat the West Champion
The point of this is, well, don't hold your breath.
Last Edited: 12/7/2020 10:57:43 AM by Victory