If the average infected person gives the disease to more than one person you have exponential growth. If it's just above one the doubling time is much longer than two days but the thing with exponential growth is that, given time, the growth will be overwhelming. The point of the measures taken was to keep the transmission rate below one. People who can't do math would make stupid arguments like if Walmart can be open then schools cab be open. But it'd really an either or thing. Every opening moves the transmission rate closer to one and you have to make your choices. Mask wearing allows a lot more stuff to be open than without it.
In NJ they're doing some "walking back" on the importance of the rate of infection, being 1 or less.
Our infection rate had been rising. Its been hovering at 1 or a little over for about a week.
That hasn't stopped our Governor, who was one of the most "conservative" when it came to lock downs and keeping other restrictions in place, from continuing to loosen his restrictions.
Part of the reason for the increase in the rate of infection is people seem to be getting tested, only when they show symptoms.
That seems to skew the calculation for rate of infection.
Even with the rate of infection over 1,we're continuing to see hospitalizations continue to drop.
Same with covid patients in ICU's or on vents.
The hospital where my wife is a nurse has seen a steady drop in covid
patients.
Covid patients are also, thanks to advances in treatment, not spending a
lot of time in the hospital.
Last year she had very few covid patients to visit at home.
Now her hospital has several hundred.
Most of the patients she visits have been in the hospital for a few days, then go home to complete their recovery.
Most of them had mild symptoms.
Last Edited: 3/8/2021 1:26:38 PM by rpbobcat