We are a 7 point underdog.
Essentially the same role Ohio was in vs Miami and Eastern Michigan - and we all know how that turned out. Ohio won both games outright.
...and the same situation we were in against CMU, Buffalo, and Kent and lost. We were also a 2 point favorite vs Syracuse and lost, 29 vs. Duquesne and lost, a 19 point underdog vs. Louisiana and lost, and 13 point underdogs against Northwestern and lost.
Nobody says that a 7 point line means that we will surely lose by exactly 7 or even that we'll lose. It just means that the consensus of the people most in the know and are willing to put their money where their mouth is put that as the average of all possible outcomes. But there are countless possible outcomes. History says that 7 point underdogs win almost exactly one quarter of the time. That's probably about what we should expect here. I can't say that I know substantially more than the experts. If I did I'd probably become a betting man and get rich. I don't see any reason to think you are smarter than the experts either. One, I don't think you have gotten rich and, two, even though you thankfully got the last two right your overall track record on this site isn't, to my recollection, particularly great. We are 3-7. How many of those 7 losses did you get right?
BTW, I'm not trying to be negative here. I might argue Ohio was just as good as anybody in the MAC in 2017, 2018, and 2019 even though they failed to win the East. I think OUr men's and women's basketball teams both have as good of a chance as anyone to win the MAC. I'm just being rational and reasonable. We do have a decent chance to beat Toledo but by the same token we'll be favored to beat Bowling Green and they will have the same reasonable chance to beat us.