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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
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El Gato Roberto
11/10/2021 2:37 PM
OU_Country wrote:expand_more
LETS GOOOOO!!
IM PROUD OF THIS TEAM AND THEY LOOK DANGEROUS WITH ROURKE & CHANGE OF PACE AMARI.
Nice to finally see some believers on here. This team could literally go from 1-7 to MAC Champions a month later! It's still there for the taking. Let that sink in for a minute.
Call me a hater if you want, but if it does happen, it shows just how bad the conference as a whole is. A 5-7 team in a conference championship game. Let THAT sink in.
I get what you’re saying…but it kind of reminds me of the time I heard Don Imas on WFAN in NY tell his sports guys that baseball can’t be all that difficult to play because the Yankees’ Jim Abbot only had one arm. If 5-7 Ohio wins the MAC East it will say a lot about the coaches and the culture the have built. I have been a vocal critic, but I am impressed with this team and it’s grit to never give up.
Last Edited: 11/10/2021 2:38:52 PM by El Gato Roberto
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OhioBobcat
11/10/2021 3:02 PM
If CMU beats KSU tonight, this is the MAC East

KSU 4-2
MU 4-2
OU 3-3

If KSU and MU both lose next week and Ohio wins, you'd have this

KSU 4-3
MU 4-3
OU 4-3

If Miami beats Kent State and when Ohio wins, you'd have this

OU 5-3
MU 5-3
KSU 4-4

And Ohio would win the MAC East with the H2H vs Miami.

It's not impossible by any stretch.
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Victory
11/10/2021 3:35 PM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
If CMU beats KSU tonight, this is the MAC East

KSU 4-2
MU 4-2
OU 3-3

If KSU and MU both lose next week and Ohio wins, you'd have this

KSU 4-3
MU 4-3
OU 4-3

If Miami beats Kent State and when Ohio wins, you'd have this

OU 5-3
MU 5-3
KSU 4-4

And Ohio would win the MAC East with the H2H vs Miami.

It's not impossible by any stretch.
This is the most likely scenario that I was talking about. It requires 6 games to all go our way. So if these were all toss-up games (each team could be expected to win the game about 50% the time) then odds against it happening would be about (0.50)^6. That's 1/64th. So that naively gives 63:1 odds against it. But several games would require big upsets. That's the rub here.

You could pull up the percent chance on each game from teamrankings or Massey or whatever your favorite site for that is and they'll be about the same. I got these from ESPN's FPI.

Ohio beats Toledo 19%
Ohio beats BGSU 51%
BSGU beats Miami 14%
CMU beats Kent St. 63%
Akron beats Kent St. 18%
Miami beats Kent St. 54%

So 0.19*0.52*0.14*0.63*0.18*0.54 = about 0.000847 or about 1/1181 or odds of about 1180:1

I think most odds would put our chances against Toledo closer to 30% and this isn't Ohio's only path to the MAC East. The other paths are much more unlikely though. That's where teamrankings own calculation on Ohio's division rankings is shown at 0.2% or about 500:1 odds. It looks like a very reasonable number to me. If I were a betting man then you'd have to give me about $500 in return for every $1 I bet to make that bet worthwhile to me and I think to most educated bettors. I don't think MAC East futures exist in Vegas but if they did Ohio's odds would realistically be about 500:1 right now.

It could happen. We all hope it will. It probably won't. I said that exact same thing last week to you about the EMU game and it worked out in our favor. But realistic odds on an EMU win were more like 3:1 and not 500:1. But, hey, I'm with you still in this. I hope 500:1 happens.
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greencat
11/10/2021 3:39 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
I feel like the MAC would be made fun of on every national sports show if a seven-loss team won a conference title.

A bowl ineligible conference champion.

“Here’s your trophy. Now go home and never speak of it ever again.”
Conference champs get to go to bowl games, even with a losing record. It's happened a few times.

But it would be fitting for the MAC to have one this year.
There have been 14 teams below .500 that made the NCAA basketball tournament.

Worst records include:
FIU at 11-18
UCF at 11-18
Fairfield at 11-18
Lehigh at 12-18
Florida A&M at 12-18

Why not a bowl team at 5-7? Makes a great underdog story. More people would tune in than if the team was 6-6, that is a guarantee.
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OhioBobcat
11/10/2021 4:33 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
If CMU beats KSU tonight, this is the MAC East

KSU 4-2
MU 4-2
OU 3-3

If KSU and MU both lose next week and Ohio wins, you'd have this

KSU 4-3
MU 4-3
OU 4-3

If Miami beats Kent State and when Ohio wins, you'd have this

OU 5-3
MU 5-3
KSU 4-4

And Ohio would win the MAC East with the H2H vs Miami.

It's not impossible by any stretch.
This is the most likely scenario that I was talking about. It requires 6 games to all go our way. So if these were all toss-up games (each team could be expected to win the game about 50% the time) then odds against it happening would be about (0.50)^6. That's 1/64th. So that naively gives 63:1 odds against it. But several games would require big upsets. That's the rub here.

You could pull up the percent chance on each game from teamrankings or Massey or whatever your favorite site for that is and they'll be about the same. I got these from ESPN's FPI.

Ohio beats Toledo 19%
Ohio beats BGSU 51%
BSGU beats Miami 14%
CMU beats Kent St. 63%
Akron beats Kent St. 18%
Miami beats Kent St. 54%

So 0.19*0.52*0.14*0.63*0.18*0.54 = about 0.000847 or about 1/1181 or odds of about 1180:1

I think most odds would put our chances against Toledo closer to 30% and this isn't Ohio's only path to the MAC East. The other paths are much more unlikely though. That's where teamrankings own calculation on Ohio's division rankings is shown at 0.2% or about 500:1 odds. It looks like a very reasonable number to me. If I were a betting man then you'd have to give me about $500 in return for every $1 I bet to make that bet worthwhile to me and I think to most educated bettors. I don't think MAC East futures exist in Vegas but if they did Ohio's odds would realistically be about 500:1 right now.

It could happen. We all hope it will. It probably won't. I said that exact same thing last week to you about the EMU game and it worked out in our favor. But realistic odds on an EMU win were more like 3:1 and not 500:1. But, hey, I'm with you still in this. I hope 500:1 happens.
I like Ohio to beat Toledo and BG no matter what the odds say. Ohio is red-hot and playing its best football all season. Ohio should beat Toledo and no way is Ohio losing to BG. Now BG beating Miami isn’t far fetched. They have managed to win a couple games no one expected them to and this could be another one as BG is more suited to try and slow a team like the schemes Miami runs compared to what Ohio does. Akron is the real wildcard vs Kent State here because despite their record, they’re still showing they can be dangerous just like last night. They came all the way back and had the lead at WMU, the same team and place that Kent State was destroyed in. Plus it’s a home game for Akron and you know how rivalry games can go - just look at Miami when they played a 1-win Ohio team.
Last Edited: 11/10/2021 4:36:04 PM by OhioBobcat
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bobcatsquared
11/10/2021 6:00 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
It's more akin to being in the last week of the baseball season. 7 games to go, 5 games back with no games against the teams ahead of us to make up ground. It's possible, yes. Should we get our hopes up? No.
How about the chances of our Columbus Crew making the MLS playoffs going into the league's final slate of games last Sunday?

The Crew needed to beat Chicago (which they did, 2 to nil) and Nashville needed to beat the Red Bulls by a combined seven goals. And that still wouldn't have been enough. If that somehow happened, the Crew needed Montreal to lose or draw against sixth-place Orlando, as well as a draw or a loss from D.C. United at 13th-place Toronto FC.

Needless to say, the Crew missed the playoffs as the reigning MLS Cup champions. Like DCF posted, the Crew earning a spot was possible, but I didn't get my hopes up.
Last Edited: 11/10/2021 6:01:09 PM by bobcatsquared
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Long Train Runnin'
11/10/2021 6:26 PM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
It isn't all that interesting from a Ohio Bobcat fan perspective because it would be so outrageously unlikely at that point but from a curiosity standpoint, if you are in to that sort of thing, can I definitely prove or disprove if Ohio is mathematically eliminated from the MAC East race if Kent St. beats CMU tonight? I am pretty sure is possible it will be hanging by the thinnest of threads imaginable. I think most MAC games played after that would matter and would have to go our way. I'd think it would be a 2000-1 shot at the very best and may be much worse than that.

Buffalo is in 4th place and they have already beaten Ohio and lost to Miami and Kent St. If Buffalo finishes 4th then we lose the three way tiebreaker. But any three way tie scenario 100% requires Akron and Bowling Green to both win at least 1 more game. So you could easily end up those three teams in a three way tie while having gone 1-1 against each other. You couldn't separate them that way and under any three-way tie scenario Ohio, Kent St., and Miami would all need to be 2-1 against those 3. It would go to the SOS against the West. BG finishing 4th alone loses the tiebreaker for us (Miami must lose to them and then it would come down to H2H between Ohio and Kent. St.). Are their enough other MAC games to all come out our way to get CMU, Toledo, and EMU to a better MAC record that the combination of teams Miami and Kent St. played? It seems REALLY, REALLY unlikely if it is. If I had to bet on it this path is not mathematically possible but I have not proved that.

But I think even if Kent St. wins tonight we are not mathematically eliminated because there are a couple of other games involving East teams that we have not set a required outcome to yet. Buffalo or BGSU finishing 4th kills our tiebreaker but Akron works for us. Akron could beat both Kent and Toledo, Buffalo could lose to NIU and Ball St., and BGSU could lose to Toledo, beat Miami, and lose to Ohio, and if Ohio also beats Toledo while Miami beats Kent St (requiring every single MAC East game in the final 2 weeks to go our way). The You'd have:

Ohio 5-3
Miami 5-3
Kent 5-3
Akron 3-5
BGSU 2-6
Buffalo 2-6

Kent would get eliminated by their loss to 4th place Akron and then Ohio wins with H2H over Miami. So winning with a tiebreaker using the West SOS might or might not be possible this still would be possible. If all of the above happens except for BG beating Toledo tonight the my understanding is Ohio STILL would win that tiebreaker. So, I do not think we can be eliminated tonight. At any rate, the most likely path of all these very unlikely paths involves Kent. St. losing out. If they beat CMU then the thread we would be hanging by would be gossamer thin.
There was a similar situation like this that happened in 2005 when three teams (BG, Miami, Akron) finished tied for 1st in the MAC East at 5-3. Akron needed 8 different games to go in their favor over the final two weeks of the season, while also needing to win their final two games - and all of it happened. Despite the odds stacked heavily against them, they won their last 2 games to finish 5-3, and had all the other games they needed to break their way actually go their way, and they won the three-way tiebreaker and went to Detroit. What's more, they then beat heavily favored NIU to win the MAC Championship. None of that looked like a possibility with all they needed to have happen, but it did. Point being, Ohio is still alive in the MACC race, and crazy things can, and have, happen. It's why you play the games.
Was that the Akron team led by Charlie Frye at QB?
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Victory
11/10/2021 7:21 PM
Long Train Runnin' wrote:expand_more
Was that the Akron team led by Charlie Frye at QB?
In my memory, yes. But my memory is wrong. Luke Getsy was their QB.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2005-12-01...
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OhioBobcat
11/10/2021 11:35 PM
Ohio is now just 1....ONE....game out of 1st place!!! Kent State got destroyed tonight at CMU and now Ohio is only a game behind Kent State and Miami with two weeks to go!!! Not only is Ohio winning, but it is now also getting the help it needs from other teams! Ohio is literally in position to do what looked unthinkable just a couple weeks ago! Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!
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OhioCatFan
11/11/2021 12:18 AM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
Ohio is now just 1....ONE....game out of 1st place!!! Kent State got destroyed tonight at CMU and now Ohio is only a game behind Kent State and Miami with two weeks to go!!! Not only is Ohio winning, but it is now also getting the help it needs from other teams! Ohio is literally in position to do what looked unthinkable just a couple weeks ago! Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!
I really don't get you and where you are coming from. Like you I see that it is possible OHIO could win the MAC East if several games involving other teams go our way and we win out. I don't see this as likely, but I do see it as possible, and given the MAC's past record, it seems more likely in this conference than in a "normal" conference. And, I'm rooting hard for all of these pieces of the puzzle to fall into place and for OHIO to win the MAC East and then pull the big upset in the MACC. However, you make an unqualified statement, "Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!" This seems absurd to me. If you added a few qualifiers, you might have a reasonable statement -- something like: "Ohio might be able to turn the MAC on its side, and if a few more games go our way like CMU's dismantling of Kent State this evening we could have the perfect storm." That would be reasonable and prudent. Your statements are constantly outlandish and strike me as tempting fate. Why do you insist on stating possibilities as givens? Makes no sense to me. I share your enthusiasm for OHIO football, but I'm find myself perplexed and confused by your constant hyperbolic statements that do not appear to be jokes based on hyperbole.
Last Edited: 11/11/2021 12:19:47 AM by OhioCatFan
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GroverBall
11/11/2021 1:00 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Ohio is now just 1....ONE....game out of 1st place!!! Kent State got destroyed tonight at CMU and now Ohio is only a game behind Kent State and Miami with two weeks to go!!! Not only is Ohio winning, but it is now also getting the help it needs from other teams! Ohio is literally in position to do what looked unthinkable just a couple weeks ago! Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!
I really don't get you and where you are coming from. Like you I see that it is possible OHIO could win the MAC East if several games involving other teams go our way and we win out. I don't see this as likely, but I do see it as possible, and given the MAC's past record, it seems more likely in this conference than in a "normal" conference. And, I'm rooting hard for all of these pieces of the puzzle to fall into place and for OHIO to win the MAC East and then pull the big upset in the MACC. However, you make an unqualified statement, "Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!" This seems absurd to me. If you added a few qualifiers, you might have a reasonable statement -- something like: "Ohio might be able to turn the MAC on its side, and if a few more games go our way like CMU's dismantling of Kent State this evening we could have the perfect storm." That would be reasonable and prudent. Your statements are constantly outlandish and strike me as tempting fate. Why do you insist on stating possibilities as givens? Makes no sense to me. I share your enthusiasm for OHIO football, but I'm find myself perplexed and confused by your constant hyperbolic statements that do not appear to be jokes based on hyperbole.
Geez, who cares? I say Go OhioBobcat you be you. We have enough ridiculous the sky is falling negativity and outright anger on here when things aren't going our way, why not enjoy some smile-inducing positivity when we are winning?
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TWT
11/11/2021 7:40 AM
Its highly unlikely that both Kent and Miami lose next week since they are both playing programs (Akron) and (BG) that are a step down from what they are currently running.

The bottom line in Ohio will likely enter the last week of the season out of the running for a MAC Championship and to me that is unacceptable. Ohio should be in the hunt for a MAC East title every year down to the final weekend, if not on the verge of wrapping it up.
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Pataskala
11/11/2021 9:42 AM
That it's even possible that three 5-3 teams could finish tied first in the division at this stage of the season just points out the sorry state of the MAC East. This morning -- as it was a couple weeks ago -- the West doesn't have a team below .500 in conference play. Four of the six West teams are already bowl eligible, and the entire division could be -- Toledo and BSU each need one win; Toledo is at Ohio and home to Akron; BSU has home games vs CMU and Buffalo. The East has MOFO and Kent at 5-5 (at least one will be bowl eligible) and Buffalo at 4-6 (they finish with NIU at home and at BSU). Sad.
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jm325204
11/11/2021 9:55 AM
We have to win out. That is an absolute necessity of course.

With the Kent loss last night, we need the games on 11/20 to go our way:

(1) Kent loses to Akron, rivalry game, Akron does not have anything else to play for, no coach or anything. Seems like Kent vs us back in 2010, god damn that game 26-7, Kent's coach had been fired and it was his last game, we lost the day after Thanksgiving and cost ourselves the MAC East. We beat Miami by 20 yet they went to the MAC title game and won, having completed a 4th-and-26 pass with under a minute left

(2) Miami loses to BGSU, this is the most far-fetched result. But BGSU (I went there for grad school) does consider Miami a rival. Now, Miami does not consider BGSU a rival but the Falcons are in a similar position where they do not have much to play for outside of pride. That result against their true rival, Toledo, last night does not offer much hope.

If we can win out, and get those two games to fall, only one game would have to go our way: Miami over Kent in the last week.

I have been reading above about the triple 5-3 result, the tiebreak like 2005, not sure how that would fall our way however. The "simplest" way to win the East is to somehow not have Kent get to 5 MAC wins...

Otherwise we are looking once again at a true heartbreaker (think 2017, 2018, 2019), where one or two 3 point games just kill us. And cross-divisional at that. This year we might be looking at something like that insane Buffalo game with the field goal missed but we were offsides deciding the MAC East, or the Homecoming debacle.

I would give anything right now for just one of those three games to have just gone our way.

That said, as upset as I was earlier in the year with Albin, this team has not quit on him. He has earned another year after the Covid lost season and the sudden departure of Frank. I would rather win out with my heart broken (think what happened to the Georgia Bulldogs last year after that crushing loss to Florida, they are still on a winning streak)_that we lost the MAC East on some tiebreak or razor-thin margin than what this team looked like a month ago. Albin has perhaps started to calm down and build the program. I hope so at least.
Last Edited: 11/11/2021 9:56:36 AM by jm325204
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Andrew Ruck
11/11/2021 10:32 AM
I could see Kent losing at Akron. What I can't see is BG winning at Miami. BG looked awful last night.
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OhioCatFan
11/11/2021 10:40 AM
GroverBall wrote:expand_more
Ohio is now just 1....ONE....game out of 1st place!!! Kent State got destroyed tonight at CMU and now Ohio is only a game behind Kent State and Miami with two weeks to go!!! Not only is Ohio winning, but it is now also getting the help it needs from other teams! Ohio is literally in position to do what looked unthinkable just a couple weeks ago! Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!
I really don't get you and where you are coming from. Like you I see that it is possible OHIO could win the MAC East if several games involving other teams go our way and we win out. I don't see this as likely, but I do see it as possible, and given the MAC's past record, it seems more likely in this conference than in a "normal" conference. And, I'm rooting hard for all of these pieces of the puzzle to fall into place and for OHIO to win the MAC East and then pull the big upset in the MACC. However, you make an unqualified statement, "Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!" This seems absurd to me. If you added a few qualifiers, you might have a reasonable statement -- something like: "Ohio might be able to turn the MAC on its side, and if a few more games go our way like CMU's dismantling of Kent State this evening we could have the perfect storm." That would be reasonable and prudent. Your statements are constantly outlandish and strike me as tempting fate. Why do you insist on stating possibilities as givens? Makes no sense to me. I share your enthusiasm for OHIO football, but I'm find myself perplexed and confused by your constant hyperbolic statements that do not appear to be jokes based on hyperbole.
Geez, who cares? I say Go OhioBobcat you be you. We have enough ridiculous the sky is falling negativity and outright anger on here when things aren't going our way, why not enjoy some smile-inducing positivity when we are winning?
There's a big difference between "smile-inducing positivity," which I'm all for, and mind-numbing statements that come off as an attempt to play the role of a secular football prophet.
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OhioCatFan
11/11/2021 10:46 AM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
I could see Kent losing at Akron. What I can't see is BG winning at Miami. BG looked awful last night.
It all depends on which BG team shows up. The one that beat Minnesota and UB, or the one that showed up last night. And, if you look at their schedule they seem to play slightly better on the road. Not, predicting a BG win, just saying the wacky world of MACtion, it's possible.
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SBH
11/11/2021 10:47 AM
OU_Country wrote:expand_more
LETS GOOOOO!!
IM PROUD OF THIS TEAM AND THEY LOOK DANGEROUS WITH ROURKE & CHANGE OF PACE AMARI.
Nice to finally see some believers on here. This team could literally go from 1-7 to MAC Champions a month later! It's still there for the taking. Let that sink in for a minute.
Call me a hater if you want, but if it does happen, it shows just how bad the conference as a whole is. A 5-7 team in a conference championship game. Let THAT sink in.

Does parity mean the conference is bad? Could mean the MAC is made up of very similar institutions with a shared vision of the place ICA should play.
Last Edited: 11/11/2021 10:49:07 AM by SBH
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ou79
11/11/2021 11:47 AM
What shared vision, seeing how many in the MAC can populate the basement of all FBS year in and year out? Seriously, why not just drop to D-III and save the University a ton of money. I should add that I am not in favor of doing that but it does raise the question of why continue when the MAC basically has zero expectations for its football programs. In all honesty, the MAC as a whole is worse then many FCS conferences. As someone pointed out elsewhere, even if we somehow manage to win the MACC we will be what, 6-7? That really tells the rest of the FBS that the MAC is some type of powerhouse conference. Oh and by the way, the winner of the MACC somehow managed to lose to an FCS team that only has 40 scholarships. Think about that.
Last Edited: 11/11/2021 11:49:11 AM by ou79
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OU_Country
11/11/2021 12:17 PM
SBH wrote:expand_more
LETS GOOOOO!!
IM PROUD OF THIS TEAM AND THEY LOOK DANGEROUS WITH ROURKE & CHANGE OF PACE AMARI.
Nice to finally see some believers on here. This team could literally go from 1-7 to MAC Champions a month later! It's still there for the taking. Let that sink in for a minute.
Call me a hater if you want, but if it does happen, it shows just how bad the conference as a whole is. A 5-7 team in a conference championship game. Let THAT sink in.

Does parity mean the conference is bad? Could mean the MAC is made up of very similar institutions with a shared vision of the place ICA should play.
I see your point. No, parity doesn't necessarily mean the MAC is bad, though this year, I think it is. I think all we have to do is compare the MAC to the rest of the G5. How does the non-conference results over the last 4-5 years look? What about bowl game results over the same window of time?

I know I should be the one to look all that fun stuff up, but I don't have time to right now. I would be curious to see some numbers and metrics related to this line of thinking.
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bobcatsquared
11/11/2021 12:52 PM
In the MAC's defense: NIU won at Ga. Tech of the ACC; WMU won at Pitt of the ACC; and, the biggest of them all, MAC bottom-dweller BG won at B10 West title contender Minnesota.
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OhioBobcat
11/11/2021 2:06 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Ohio is now just 1....ONE....game out of 1st place!!! Kent State got destroyed tonight at CMU and now Ohio is only a game behind Kent State and Miami with two weeks to go!!! Not only is Ohio winning, but it is now also getting the help it needs from other teams! Ohio is literally in position to do what looked unthinkable just a couple weeks ago! Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!
I really don't get you and where you are coming from. Like you I see that it is possible OHIO could win the MAC East if several games involving other teams go our way and we win out. I don't see this as likely, but I do see it as possible, and given the MAC's past record, it seems more likely in this conference than in a "normal" conference. And, I'm rooting hard for all of these pieces of the puzzle to fall into place and for OHIO to win the MAC East and then pull the big upset in the MACC. However, you make an unqualified statement, "Ohio is about to turn the MAC on its side!!! Everything is falling into place perfectly for Ohio!!!" This seems absurd to me. If you added a few qualifiers, you might have a reasonable statement -- something like: "Ohio might be able to turn the MAC on its side, and if a few more games go our way like CMU's dismantling of Kent State this evening we could have the perfect storm." That would be reasonable and prudent. Your statements are constantly outlandish and strike me as tempting fate. Why do you insist on stating possibilities as givens? Makes no sense to me. I share your enthusiasm for OHIO football, but I'm find myself perplexed and confused by your constant hyperbolic statements that do not appear to be jokes based on hyperbole.
Geez, who cares? I say Go OhioBobcat you be you. We have enough ridiculous the sky is falling negativity and outright anger on here when things aren't going our way, why not enjoy some smile-inducing positivity when we are winning?
There's a big difference between "smile-inducing positivity," which I'm all for, and mind-numbing statements that come off as an attempt to play the role of a secular football prophet.
I'm not trying to be a "prophet" whatsoever. I just feel differently than most on here who clearly have already written this team off weeks ago. There's been a lot of moaning and complaining and I get some of it. But we're also talking about a team that is still alive in the MAC race and is playing its best ball all season. They're not out of it and are currently in the division race. If they get eliminated next week, then fine, let the complainers complain all they want. But understand that some on here find the constant negativity just as "outlandish" as you find the positivity. At least the positivity I'm sharing or expressing is applicable to something that is still obtainable. The same can't be said for all of the negativity.
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OhioBobcat
11/11/2021 2:10 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
That it's even possible that three 5-3 teams could finish tied first in the division at this stage of the season just points out the sorry state of the MAC East. This morning -- as it was a couple weeks ago -- the West doesn't have a team below .500 in conference play. Four of the six West teams are already bowl eligible, and the entire division could be -- Toledo and BSU each need one win; Toledo is at Ohio and home to Akron; BSU has home games vs CMU and Buffalo. The East has MOFO and Kent at 5-5 (at least one will be bowl eligible) and Buffalo at 4-6 (they finish with NIU at home and at BSU). Sad.
True, but the same thing could pretty much have been said for the West in men's basketball when the MAC had divisions. For years the East had much better teams in it. I've been following the MAC for quite awhile now, and the East has often been better top to bottom in basketball and the West has been better top to bottom in football. That's pretty much been par for the coarse in most years - including this one if divisions still applied in hoops.
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OhioBobcat
11/11/2021 2:13 PM
jm325204 wrote:expand_more
We have to win out. That is an absolute necessity of course.

With the Kent loss last night, we need the games on 11/20 to go our way:

(1) Kent loses to Akron, rivalry game, Akron does not have anything else to play for, no coach or anything. Seems like Kent vs us back in 2010, god damn that game 26-7, Kent's coach had been fired and it was his last game, we lost the day after Thanksgiving and cost ourselves the MAC East. We beat Miami by 20 yet they went to the MAC title game and won, having completed a 4th-and-26 pass with under a minute left

(2) Miami loses to BGSU, this is the most far-fetched result. But BGSU (I went there for grad school) does consider Miami a rival. Now, Miami does not consider BGSU a rival but the Falcons are in a similar position where they do not have much to play for outside of pride. That result against their true rival, Toledo, last night does not offer much hope.

If we can win out, and get those two games to fall, only one game would have to go our way: Miami over Kent in the last week.

I have been reading above about the triple 5-3 result, the tiebreak like 2005, not sure how that would fall our way however. The "simplest" way to win the East is to somehow not have Kent get to 5 MAC wins...

Otherwise we are looking once again at a true heartbreaker (think 2017, 2018, 2019), where one or two 3 point games just kill us. And cross-divisional at that. This year we might be looking at something like that insane Buffalo game with the field goal missed but we were offsides deciding the MAC East, or the Homecoming debacle.

I would give anything right now for just one of those three games to have just gone our way.

That said, as upset as I was earlier in the year with Albin, this team has not quit on him. He has earned another year after the Covid lost season and the sudden departure of Frank. I would rather win out with my heart broken (think what happened to the Georgia Bulldogs last year after that crushing loss to Florida, they are still on a winning streak)_that we lost the MAC East on some tiebreak or razor-thin margin than what this team looked like a month ago. Albin has perhaps started to calm down and build the program. I hope so at least.
Great points and well said.
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OhioBobcat
11/11/2021 2:17 PM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
I could see Kent losing at Akron.
Me too. Kent State has been pretty bad on the road expect for one game. And this one is on the road, against their rival. And believe it or not, Akron woulda/could/should won its last two games vs Ball State and Western Michigan. Both of those could have been wins. Akron is playing pretty good right now actually.
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