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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Official Game 10 Thread: Western Michigan
Page: 6 of 6
spongeBOB CATpants
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Posted: 11/12/2025 4:20 PM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Really the only lesson that can be learned here is don't lose to a crappy Ball State team and you wouldn't have this problem. :)
I could be wrong but if Ball St wins out, they're playing in Detroit on Dec 6.

Actually they would need CMU and Buffalo to drop one too.
Last Edited: 11/12/2025 4:25:19 PM by spongeBOB CATpants
L.C.
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Posted: 11/12/2025 9:18 PM
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FWIW, TeamRankings rates the chance of MACC as:
WMU 33.8%
Ohio 21.1%
Toledo 20.4%
Miami 14.7%
Buffalo 8.5%
CMU 1.5%
Ball St 0.1%

Yes, CMU and Ball State could win, but the chances of that happening are very remote, for now at least.
Victory
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Posted: 11/12/2025 9:27 PM
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AlexBobcats wrote:expand_more
Buffalo is not a factor, I am convinced they are terrible and will end at 4-4.

But I don't see how the winner of Miami & Toledo isn't the other team in the MAC Championship. Unless someone can explain to me how we would win a tiebreaker over Toledo.
Our tiebreaker over Toledo is common opponents. So right now we are up 1 with us beating BGSU and them losing. If they beat Miami and Ball State we would go back to even record off common and then I believe it’s order of finish and at that point back to BGSU finishing ahead of Ball State meaning we win tiebreaker.
How probable is it the BGSU finishes ahead of Ball State? They are three games behind right now?
AlexBobcats
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Posted: 11/12/2025 9:52 PM
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Victory wrote:expand_more
Buffalo is not a factor, I am convinced they are terrible and will end at 4-4.

But I don't see how the winner of Miami & Toledo isn't the other team in the MAC Championship. Unless someone can explain to me how we would win a tiebreaker over Toledo.
Our tiebreaker over Toledo is common opponents. So right now we are up 1 with us beating BGSU and them losing. If they beat Miami and Ball State we would go back to even record off common and then I believe it’s order of finish and at that point back to BGSU finishing ahead of Ball State meaning we win tiebreaker.
How probable is it the BGSU finishes ahead of Ball State? They are three games behind right now?
Not likely at all unfortunately. I just think that is the tiebreaker scenario that we have available to us against Toledo specifically.
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/12/2025 10:38 PM
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Wednesday finals:

Toledo 24-MOFO 3
CMU 38-Buffalo 19
NIU 45-UMass 3


The race for the MACC:

WMU 5-1
OHIO, Buffalo, MOFO, Toledo, CMU 4-2
BSU 3=2 (plays at home vs EMU)
MiamiBlowsChunks
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Posted: 11/12/2025 11:44 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Wednesday finals:

Toledo 24-MOFO 3
CMU 38-Buffalo 19
NIU 45-UMass 3


The race for the MACC:

WMU 5-1
OHIO, Buffalo, MOFO, Toledo, CMU 4-2
BSU 3=2 (plays at home vs EMU)
There's been A LOT of bad/winless teams in MAC history (hello OU '94) but my god this UMess team may be the worst ever.
TWT
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Posted: 11/13/2025 12:01 AM
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spongeBOB CATpants wrote:expand_more
Really the only lesson that can be learned here is don't lose to a crappy Ball State team and you wouldn't have this problem. :)
I could be wrong but if Ball St wins out, they're playing in Detroit on Dec 6.

Actually they would need CMU and Buffalo to drop one too.
Ball St wins out they'll have tie breakers over Ohio, Toledo, Miami but not CMU or Buffalo since Ball St dropped a game to NIU, second to last place in the MAC.
TWT
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Posted: 11/13/2025 12:04 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
FWIW, TeamRankings rates the chance of MACC as:
WMU 33.8%
Ohio 21.1%
Toledo 20.4%
Miami 14.7%
Buffalo 8.5%
CMU 1.5%
Ball St 0.1%

Yes, CMU and Ball State could win, but the chances of that happening are very remote, for now at least.
If this is to win the MAC Championship Buffalo should be under 1% based on the eye test. If this is to make Detroit then 8.5% is about right.
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 11/13/2025 8:59 AM
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This MACC has Toledo written all over it.

Left for dead weeks ago, and here they are knocking on the door.
L.C.
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Posted: 11/13/2025 9:07 AM
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M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
This MACC has Toledo written all over it.

Left for dead weeks ago, and here they are knocking on the door.

TeamRankings agrees. After the Toledo and CMU wins, TeamRankings now has the chance of MACC as:
Toledo 37.8% (up from 20.4%)
WMU 29.6 (down from 33.8%)
Ohio 22.2% (up from 21.1%)
Miami 3.7% (down from 14.7%)
Buffalo 3.5% (down from 8.5%)
CMU 3.2% (up from 1.5%)
Ball St 0.1%, unchanged

Can CMU or Ball State disrupt Toledo's plans? In the MAC, anything can happen.

[While it wouldn't help Ohio, it would be such a shame if Buffalo and Ball State would both happen to beat Miami and keep them from bowl eligibility, wouldn't it?]
Last Edited: 11/13/2025 9:11:45 AM by L.C.
STVCastle
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Posted: 11/13/2025 10:03 AM
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Kind of a Doomsday Scenario for us but...

if we want to get back to the MAC Title Game in Detroit, it may come down to having Miami beat Ball State at the end of the season, since Ball State has the tiebreaker over us.

I'll take some aspirin now.
TWT
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Posted: 11/13/2025 10:54 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
This MACC has Toledo written all over it.

Left for dead weeks ago, and here they are knocking on the door.

TeamRankings agrees. After the Toledo and CMU wins, TeamRankings now has the chance of MACC as:
Toledo 37.8% (up from 20.4%)
WMU 29.6 (down from 33.8%)
Ohio 22.2% (up from 21.1%)
Miami 3.7% (down from 14.7%)
Buffalo 3.5% (down from 8.5%)
CMU 3.2% (up from 1.5%)
Ball St 0.1%, unchanged

Can CMU or Ball State disrupt Toledo's plans? In the MAC, anything can happen.

[While it wouldn't help Ohio, it would be such a shame if Buffalo and Ball State would both happen to beat Miami and keep them from bowl eligibility, wouldn't it?]
This is more in-line with the eye test but I sure they aren't factoring in all of the tie-breakers.

Also individual probabilities sum up above 100%. WMU's individual chance is closer to 40% due to them almost a lock to make Detroit.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/13/2025 11:51 AM
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If CMU beats Toledo, and the game is at Mount Pleasant, and if they beat KSU the week before, and if we win out, won't we have the same conference record as CMU? Do we win the tiebreaker with CMU? This is all so confusing!
TWT
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Posted: 11/13/2025 11:57 AM
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
If CMU beats Toledo, and the game is at Mount Pleasant, and if they beat KSU the week before, and if we win out, won't we have the same conference record as CMU? Do we win the tiebreaker with CMU? This is all so confusing!
Ball State has the head-2-head over Akron in the event they both finish 4-4 in the MAC so yes.
L.C.
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Posted: 11/13/2025 2:59 PM
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TWT wrote:expand_more
This is more in-line with the eye test but I sure they aren't factoring in all of the tie-breakers.

Also individual probabilities sum up above 100%. WMU's individual chance is closer to 40% due to them almost a lock to make Detroit.

That's just the point. TeamRankngs does factor in all the tiebreakers. They have been known to make errors in how they use the tiebreakers, but they get better each year, so they are probably correct. I'm not going to try to compute all the potential tiebreakers; I'll leave that to them. If you want a number for the chance of getting into the game, it's about double the number above, maybe a little less or more, as it would factor in the chance to actually win the game, if a team get there, and the games wouldn't all be 50:50.

Yes, it adds to 100.1%, but that's just roundoff error.
Last Edited: 11/13/2025 3:02:51 PM by L.C.
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/13/2025 5:41 PM
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One thing the loss to WMU did -- the likelihood of the UMass game being considered a trap game is about zero. I think the team knows that UMass is a MUST WIN if they have any chance of going back to Detroit. There's no looking past the Minutemen to Buffalo.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 11/14/2025 9:12 AM
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I'm not exactly a staunch defender of these 2025 Bobcats and find them quite frustrating. But we could beat UMass with our eyes closed.
Victory
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Posted: 11/14/2025 7:21 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
This is more in-line with the eye test but I sure they aren't factoring in all of the tie-breakers.

Also individual probabilities sum up above 100%. WMU's individual chance is closer to 40% due to them almost a lock to make Detroit.

That's just the point. TeamRankngs does factor in all the tiebreakers. They have been known to make errors in how they use the tiebreakers, but they get better each year, so they are probably correct. I'm not going to try to compute all the potential tiebreakers; I'll leave that to them. If you want a number for the chance of getting into the game, it's about double the number above, maybe a little less or more, as it would factor in the chance to actually win the game, if a team get there, and the games wouldn't all be 50:50.

Yes, it adds to 100.1%, but that's just roundoff error.
Team ranking is probably using their power ranking to run a Monte Carlo simulation rather than actually trying to compute every scenario. At any rate, if the have the tiebreaker wrong then they are probably going to get results that are significantly wrong. I don't have reason to believe they have it wrong but I certainly wouldn't rule that out.
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