The competitive balance has ALWAYS been on the side of major conferences. For whatever reason, the smaller conferences and Independents just decided that receiving single game checks to get their head kicked in was good enough to say, "yeah, things are equal, we all play the same sport." It's never been true. There's always been this unbalanced power and that's not going to change just because UCLA is playing at Rutgers instead of Arizona State. To think otherwise would be asinine.
To me, there are three bigger turning points in realignment for this thing to completely explode and change the landscape which could eventually bring antitrust lawsuits which BLSoS was referring to.
1. Notre Dame - if they decide to remain Independent, it's more or less just delaying the inevitable of the major conferences to push towards autonomy. If the Irish decide to join then what is holding these conference commissioners, presidents and ADs from saying, "you know what, we don't need the NCAA."
If and when that happens, then essentially the P5, ESPN and FOX are holding all the cards. What's left? Oregon and Washington could easily be swayed to one of these conferences looking to expand as a package deal. You don't really need Oregon State or Washington State unless you'd want and entire Pacific Division, which in the Big Ten's case, you just swiped the best four you could possibly get.
Notre Dame staying Independent for as long as possible ticks off the conferences because they more or less get a pass, and quite frankly, a path to the Playoff every year that's easier than everyone else's simply because they're Notre Dame. They move to a conference and that all changes. So if you're the Irish why would you leave? Money? You don't really need that even if the NBC contract is nowhere near what you'd get from FOX or ESPN. Your coffers are full from fundraising and donations.
2. The other thing I think nobody is talking about is CBS' role in all this. They along with Turner have a deal with the NCAA Tournament through 2032. They didn't match the ESPN offer to buy the SEC broadcast rights, and currently don't have a football deal in place for the future. It's going to be interesting to see what they do when their SEC deal expires prior to the 2024 season, which uncoincidentally coincides with the Big Ten and Pac-12's old deals expiring. I can't imagine they don't want to be a player of some sort in this massive amount of money being changed hands. It will be curious to see what they do.
3. Streaming. Imagine if you could pull up ESPN on your TV like Netflix and get all the content you would ever desire WITHOUT having to have a cable subscription first, which is the major hangup with the ESPN App/ESPN3 right now. Take that away and make ESPN it's own thing and that changes things.
Last Edited: 7/19/2022 2:01:51 PM by GoCats105