I figure that Ohio has about a 50% chance in each remaining game. That means that the expected average is now about 6.5 wins. Based on that, the odds of ending up:
4-8: 3.1%
5-7: 15.6%
6-6: 31.3%
7-5: 31.3%
8-4: 15.6%
9-3: 3.1%
If Ohio goes 9-3, they will win the MAC East. If they go 8-4, they might win it, depending on other games. They probably need to beat Buffalo to win at 8-4, so I would guesstimate that Ohio has about a 14% chance of winning the East at this point.
If I add up the probabilities of winning 4 or 5 games that you are listing above that gives 18.7%. Then the chances of 6+ according to your calculations are 81.3% which is slightly higher than my rough estimate of 80%. The coin flip approach here is not a bad way to look at it as the Akron game was likely the only layup opponent on this years schedule.