Tonight, both Buffalo (at CMU) and BG (hosting Kent State) are underdogs. Both are close (Buffalo +1.5, BG +2.5), so either winning would not be a major surprise. However, trying to run through scenarios, I'd love some help here:

If both Buffalo and BG lose...

OHIO would hold a 1 game lead over both, though the lead over Buffalo is larger due to the win head-to-head. In this scenario, OHIO wins the East if they beat BG at home no matter what happens at Ball State.

If Buffalo loses and BG wins...

OHIO would be sitting in great position with two games left. Similar situation to top scenario, if OHIO beats BG at home, they win East no matter results of next Tuesday. If OHIO were to lose vs. BG and win next week in this scenario but BG were to lose to Toledo in between, we would end up with Buffalo, OHIO, and BG all tied at 6-2, with OHIO beating Buffalo, BG beating OHIO, and Buffalo beating BG. This could be the most insane situation.

If Buffalo wins and BG loses...

OHIO essentially needs to win out. Buffalo should beat Akron in their next game, and they get nearly a week and a half to prepare for that. Then, they have their final game at home vs. Kent State, but that would be after OHIO plays BG, so OHIO wouldn't have the luxury of knowing if BG is a must-win or not. BG losing tonight would essentially eliminate most possibilities of them winning the East.

If Buffalo wins and BG wins...

This helps Buffalo and hurts BG. Hard to see a path towards BG winning the East if Buffalo wins tonight. This also means OHIO has to win out to ensure they win the East. OHIO should be favored in each of their final two games.


Am I right on this? Is there something else?

Root for Buffalo to lose at least one game. That would make our result with Ball State obsolete as long as we can win at home vs BG.

Buffalo losing is the only thing I care about. That one game cushion would mean a lot. But I believe this team is hungry to finish strong.

There is a way to clinch the East before even playing Bowling Green.

-We have to beat Ball State
-Buffalo loses to CMU or Akron
-BG loses to Kent AND Toledo
-Kent loses to EMU

There are positives to tonight's Kent/BG game no matter the result. A BG win eliminates Kent. A Kent win keeps the above not terribly unlikely scenario alive and at least really muddies the water for BG who would have to come up with a Herculean effort to beat Toledo and Ohio.

Before going to tie-breaker city I want to see how the games go tonight.

While the NIU/WMU game has no impact on Ohio, it is interesting to note that both teams have turned to Freshmen at QB, Treyson Bourguet for WMU, and Nevan Cremascoli for NIU.


They have a TD now. What I find interesting is that BG has gone for it at 4th and 4, and at 4th and 6, both at around midfield, and now 4th and 1 near the red zone, and they have failed all three times.

Buffalo seems to be handling CMU pretty well. I just saw a stat that the Buffs had 16 1st downs and CMU had 3.

What an amazing QB keeper. We're tied in Mt Pleasant.

For a night in which the Bobcats didn't play, this could be a great night for Ohio football. Fire up Chips!

BGSU goes down.

Beefs go down.

CMU comes through!!!!

There is no more MACtion until Tuesday which will feature 2 games. If Toledo and Ohio both win that's wrap for both division titles. It will be interesting to see which game they put on which channel.

From what I hear we are getting either ESPN2 or ESPNU