With Toledo's loss to Buffalo and Ohio's defensive improvement one has to think the next game against Buffalo or Toledo in Detroit if it happens would be within a FG on the betting line. The problem is Ohio has to keep pace with Buffalo in the loss column by defeating them to keep it in the teams destiny and then winning the three remaining games to be safe. If Buffalo defeats Ohio with the tie-breaker UB would have to lose its 3 remaining games and Ohio has to win out to take the East. Buffalo has Akron yet on the schedule so forget about them losing out.
After Buffalo's somewhat surprising win against Toledo, Ohio very likely needs to run the table, which would mean entering the bowl game on a seven game winning streak, to win the MAC. Buffalo had a more impressive win that Ohio this week and the line is probably more in Buffalo's favor that it would have been last week. I don't know if it will be within a FG. We were a 3 point underdog at home to a 2 win team today. I am still expecting to be about a 4.5 point underdog on our own field. Anyone else want to guess?
I could care less what Vegas has to say aside from the money Ohio is making me in the MAC this season. But the scoreboard will say Ohio with more points than Buffalo when the clock hits zero. This team is going to Detroit.
Yeah but you say that every year before every game.
Yeah, I don't want to be a buzzkill....and I'm not saying that Ohio is going to lose next week. Go Bobcats! Bear Buffalo!. But if I were you I'd quit while you are ahead this year or at least consider it as an entertainment expense you are doing for fun like going out to dinner or going to games and not a way to make money. That goes for everyone reading this. There are a few people out there that are good enough at prognostication to beat the house. But the casino's and websites are making so much money because the are just that, "A few". They take "juice" on bets so even if you are slightly better than the guys billionaire businessmen single out to pay to set the lines, and the wisdom of the crowd that moves it, and practically nobody is, you are still likely to lose anyway.
There is a scene in the children's classic movie "The Princess Bride" where the hero, Westley, challenges a mastermind villain, Vizzini, to a battle of wits. Vizzini is so confidant in his own genius that he is willing to accept the challenge even before the challenge is defined. This is where he is the ultimate fool and lost the game of wits before it began. Westley puts out two glasses of wine and challenges Vizzini to determine which is poisoned and to pick which one he will drink and which one Westley will drink. Afterward, Westly admits to the heroine that he spent the last few years building up an immunity to the poison and he had put poison in both glasses. Betting with a book is just like that. If you accept a battle of wits with the terms defined by the other side you are going to lose. In this case you will win some of the time but that's intentionally part of the terms they set. It's that way intentionally and with subtlety to make you think you might be able to come you ahead because they can't actually force anyone to play. Over time you almost certainly won't win.
Last Edited: 10/23/2022 12:49:27 PM by Victory