Per TeamRankings, Miami has a 0.2% chance of winning the East, so there must be a single obscure, unlikely combination of game outcomes that would send them to the MACC. Essentially, all they are playing for at this point is for bowl eligibility. This is a must win game for Ohio, and I don't see Ohio letting off the gas.
Go Bobcats!
It is Buffalo losing out and BG beating Ohio and losing their other 3 and Miami winning all three. If Ohio beats BG, loses to Ball St., Buffalo both loses out then I think BG could win tonight as long as they lose the rest and Miami wins out.
There is 10 game parlay path now. They definitely win under the following combination:
They need three games this week. Teamrankings has them all slightly in their favor but even if you believe those percentages the odds of them getting all three and surviving the week are about 16%.
Miami beats Ohio (51.1%)
Central Michigan beats Buffalo (55.1%)
Kent State beats Bowling Green (56.0%)
Next week these are all underdogs:
Miami beats Northern Illinois (42.7%)
Akron beats Buffalo (10.6%)
Ball State beats Ohio (45.2%)
Toledo beats Bowling Green (85.3%)
Final week:
Ohio beats Bowling Green (68.6%)
Miami beats Ball State (61.9%)
Kent State beats Buffalo (39.9%)
But I don't think that's the only path (which according to their own percentages should worse than a 2000+:1 shot and they have it as about a 500:1 shot) because if Kent State also beats EMU (68.9%) then they are tied with Ohio and Miami and I think that means that Buffalo can beat CMU or BG can beat Toledo. Under that scenario there is a 4 way tie and H2H works for Miami. I think that if both Buffalo and BG were to win their West games there would be a 5 way tie where Kent would win on H2H. I am not at all sure about complicated MAC tiebreakers so take that FWIW.
Last Edited: 11/3/2022 5:48:58 PM by Victory