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Topic: MAC East Title Scenarios
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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 11/7/2010 8:11 PM
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Here are the two teams mathematically involved and their remaining schedule:

Miami (7-1 in MAC)
Ohio (6-1 in MAC) - @ Kent St.

The scenarios:

Miami - can win the East with an Ohio loss to Kent State.

Ohio - can win the East with a win over Kent State.

UPDATED: Following Miami's win over Temple
Last Edited: 11/23/2010 9:43:00 PM by Ted Thompson
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/7/2010 8:52 PM
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Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
Here are the three teams mathematically involved and their remaining schedule:

Miami (4-1 in MAC) - @ BG, @ Akron, Temple
Ohio (5-1 in MAC) - @ Temple, @ Kent St.
Temple (5-1 in MAC) - Ohio, @ Miami

Temple's win over Kent St. means the Ohio/Temple game is a must-win for the Bobcats. However, a BG or Akron win over Miami would mean that Ohio can beat Temple but lose to Kent State.

The scenarios (I think):

Miami - can win the East by winning out and an Ohio loss to either Temple or Kent State.

Temple - can win the East with wins over Ohio and Miami. Can also win with win over Ohio and loss to Miami if MIami loses to BG AND Akron.

Ohio - can win the East with wins over Temple and Kent State. Can also win with win over Temple and loss to Kent St. if Miami loses to BG OR Akron.


Also, the Cats win the East if they beat Temple and Temple beats Fiami on the 23rd, even if Fiami beats BG and Akron.  OU would have only one loss with one game left, while both Temple and Fiami would have two losses and the Cats would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 11/7/2010 8:58 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Here are the three teams mathematically involved and their remaining schedule:

Miami (4-1 in MAC) - @ BG, @ Akron, Temple
Ohio (5-1 in MAC) - @ Temple, @ Kent St.
Temple (5-1 in MAC) - Ohio, @ Miami

Temple's win over Kent St. means the Ohio/Temple game is a must-win for the Bobcats. However, a BG or Akron win over Miami would mean that Ohio can beat Temple but lose to Kent State.

The scenarios (I think):

Miami - can win the East by winning out and an Ohio loss to either Temple or Kent State.

Temple - can win the East with wins over Ohio and Miami. Can also win with win over Ohio and loss to Miami if MIami loses to BG AND Akron.

Ohio - can win the East with wins over Temple and Kent State. Can also win with win over Temple and loss to Kent St. if Miami loses to BG OR Akron.


Also, the Cats win the East if they beat Temple and Temple beats Fiami on the 23rd, even if Fiami beats BG and Akron.  OU would have only one loss with one game left, while both Temple and Fiami would have two losses and the Cats would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.


True, if Ohio beats Temple, then any Miami loss would mean the Bobcats wouldn't have to beat Kent State.
DublinCat
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Posted: 11/7/2010 9:22 PM
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All of these seem very possible.  Would not be shocked to see any of the three teams end up winning the East.  Miami has yet to blow out anyone. Temple has had some close games in the East including at home vs. BG.   No MAC team has come close to us since Toledo.  We beat Temple fairly easily last year and we are a much more complete team this year with the running game.  Temple still does not have an impressive win over a quality team and were blown out by NIU.  
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 11/7/2010 10:52 PM
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Youse guys are missing the simple logic/statistics/math of Ted's post; there's only one scenario which you need to know about:  beat Temples.
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/7/2010 11:01 PM
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Monroe Slavin, CPA wrote:expand_more
Youse guys are missing the simple logic/statistics/math of Ted's post; there's only one scenario which you need to know about:  beat Temples.


But if Fiami wins out, they'll be 7-1; if the Cats beat Temple but lose to Kent, they'll be 6-2.

The only scenario we need to know is "win 'em both."
Athens
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Posted: 11/8/2010 12:08 AM
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DublinCat wrote:expand_more
All of these seem very possible.  Would not be shocked to see any of the three teams end up winning the East.  Miami has yet to blow out anyone. 


I don't think Miami belongs in the conversation of the MAC East championship race after a drilling at home by Ohio. Technically they can still win the East but a technicality is all it is. I'd be very shocked to see them take Temple as Temple rarely loses to teams below its level. Against MAC teams that statistically look top level, that is a different story for Temple. Ohio is one of those top level teams. Miami is like the best of the lower level MAC teams this year.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:55 AM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Youse guys are missing the simple logic/statistics/math of Ted's post; there's only one scenario which you need to know about:  beat Temples.


But if Fiami wins out, they'll be 7-1; if the Cats beat Temple but lose to Kent, they'll be 6-2.

The only scenario we need to know is "win 'em both."


We can only win, and should only worry about, the next game.  Other than a victory over Temples and we don't have much discussion here.  One at a time.  We aren't good enough to assume anything.
Last Edited: 11/8/2010 1:55:44 AM by Monroe Slavin
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 11/8/2010 7:43 AM
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This is somewhat of a longshot sceneario, but if Ohio, Miami and Temple all finish 6-2 with Temple beating Ohio and losing to Miami, and Miami losing one of its other games, then I believe Temple would win the tiebreaker. Of course all three teams would be 1-1 against each other and then it would go down the list of teams in the division. Miami would be eliminated via its loss to one of the remaining teams, and then Temple would win the tiebreaker via a head-to-head win with Ohio.

So basically what this says is there is no way for the Bobcats to win a tiebreaker of any kind with Temple if they lose to Temple. Ohio can't win the MAC East without beating the Owls.

Mike Coleman
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Posted: 11/8/2010 9:20 AM
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UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more

Ohio can't win the MAC East without beating the Owls.



Worth repeating.

I believe in years past they would have done this tiebreaker by record v. crossover games. In that case, Miami would win the MAC East since we lost to Toledo and Temple lost to NIU. IMO, record v. own division makes more sense.
anorris
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Posted: 11/11/2010 10:13 AM
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Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
Here are the three teams mathematically involved and their remaining schedule:

Miami (5-1 in MAC) - @ Akron, Temple
Ohio (5-1 in MAC) - @ Temple, @ Kent St.
Temple (5-1 in MAC) - Ohio, @ Miami

The Ohio/Temple game is a must-win for the Bobcats.

The scenarios:

Miami - can win the East by winning out and an Ohio loss to either Temple or Kent State.

Temple - can win the East with wins over Ohio and Miami.

Ohio - can win the East with wins over Temple and Kent State. Can also win with win over Temple and loss to Kent St. if Miami loses to Akron OR Temple.

Given Miami/Temple is on ESPN early in the week, and the announcement must come in the next few days about the ESPNU window the day after Thanksgiving, it seems likely we would get it, since NIU-EMU and CMU-Toledo seem less than compelling.
Last Edited: 11/11/2010 10:15:30 AM by anorris
Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 11/11/2010 11:52 AM
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Thanks for the primer, Ted.

You saved my jumbled brain about 20 minutes of trying to figure it out myself.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 11/11/2010 12:12 PM
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Wanna know it all in two words:  Beat Temples.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 11/17/2010 12:13 PM
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Per ESPN, Dysert is out 4-6 weeks with a lacerated spleen. Can't see them beating Temple, may not even beat Akron w/o him.
71 BOBCAT
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Posted: 11/17/2010 12:46 PM
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All this talk makes me think that we should know our fate before our next game? Right?









GO BOBCATS
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 11/17/2010 1:12 PM
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Yes, Miami's regular season will be done by the time Ohio plays Kent State.
Bobcatbob
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Posted: 11/24/2010 8:41 AM
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Just win, baby!
catfan70
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Posted: 11/26/2010 1:51 PM
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Well this thread can now be deleted.
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