There have been so many rumors, I decided to evaluate things myself. What I came up with is this:

Assuming Washington beats Washington State as expected and Oregon State loses to Oregon as expected, there will be 71 bowl-eligible teams for 70 spots.

The leagues with extra teams to fill bowls as at-larges are the ACC (one), the Big East (one) and the MAC (three). This is based on the assumption that the at-large BCS bids will go to the Big 10, SEC, Mountain West and Pac-10. I think even if there are upsets, this will be the case. For example, if Auburn loses, the SEC teams in the BCS will be Auburn and South Carolina instead of Auburn and Arkansas. And if Oregon loses, they and Stanford still likely will be BCS teams from the Pac-10.

Of course, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State also could become bowl-eligible with upset wins this weekend, but their conferences have filled their allottments already, so it is not likely they would be selected for a bowl with 6-6 records over 8-4 MAC teams. The Sun Belt does serve as an automatic backup for the Little Caesar's, but only if the team is at least 7-5.

The conferences not able to fill their bowl spots are the Big Ten (one spot) and the Pac-10 (probably three spots), and those bowls are: Little Caesar's Bowl, Sun Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (in San Francisco).

The Little Caesar's Bowl will be lucky if it can get Louisville to come because I doubt the ACC's extra team will want to come, and that leaves only MAC schools to fill the void (against a MAC team!) That was a rumor I had heard but could hardly believe. I think the MAC had better do all it can to get Louisville to take that spot.

Most projections have the ACC taking the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl spot, potentially against Boise State, but I think a MAC team could get that spot if Boise State stays home for the Humanitarian instead.

Also of note, the New Mexico Bowl really isn't a possibility for the MAC anymore because Boise State's loss takes them out of the BCS and enables the WAC to fill all of its spots and the Mountain West can fill all of its spots with Army taking one of them).

I also wouldn't rule out Ohio getitng one of the MAC-affiliated bowls yet.


Anyway, here is the complete breakdown:

My reasons for smaller attendance than we could have otherwise:

1) One thing that I think may have as much or more to do with attendance than most, is notice ahead of time. I have a feeling that every day (early or late) that the bowl+date is known/not known, it probably is worth a bunch of potential attendees. And when our pool to draw from is small to begin with, it matters a lot. Like if you announce we are going to Detroit today vs two weeks from now, I think it's going to make 750 people difference.

2) Other reason. Slow starts. Period. Team and fans don't get the hype and publicity after a so-so losing start to the season. And for whatever reason, we're prone to this.
During the bowl years,
2006 was a 2-3 start. One of the losses being to BG.
2009 was a 2-2 start. Loss to quality teams, but nonetheless, started out with a loss at home. (UCONN)
2010 was a 1-3 start. Baaaad losses to Marshall & Toledo to start. Very winnable games.
Granted after these slow starts, the Cats come back and finish strong (usually, cough), but the damage IMO is already done.

I don't discount that a certain opponent probably makes somewhat of a difference, but I don't know how big. A 6-6 Illinois/Indiana/UCLA(last yr) team in a bowl vs a MAC school might excite a few extra folks, but not sure how many. After all, we just played #2 Kansas (big name/high rank) out in Vegas, and there were less than 200 Ohio fans in attendance. So I have a tough time believing a 'name' opponent causes us to draw too much more.

Dear Mr. mcbin--I have taken some heat for suggesting the highlighted part of what your wroted above.  You should not post contrary thoughts.

New Mexico Bowl is out - BYU - UTEP is confirmed.

Vegas is Utah versus........

Las Vegas Bowl-Utah vs Boise IF Boise (#(9) gets a BCS waiver per a Salt lake City news article.

Scratch one.