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Topic: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
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giacomo
2/6/2023 10:01 PM
Even if we sell out Peden we don’t make money. Now pay our coach 1M and it’s even worse. You may think that sports are the most important thing on the planet. It’s obvious our students and town don’t think so, or our numbers would be higher. I’m glad our prez and AD have some common sense. If you think it’s so important to pay our coaches top dollar, get our your check book.
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BillyTheCat
2/7/2023 12:13 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.
...but any market that involves a huge chunk of the labor going unpaid isn't exactly a free market.
Nope. Scholarship even to public school clocks in around 25k/year and many places much more. If you don't see the value in that scholarship, then you shouldn't be playing college football anyway.
This thought is quite outdated and unrealistic
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BillyTheCat
2/7/2023 12:15 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?

Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.

Exactly and that 8,300 hundred figure for last Saturday vs. Miami was a JOKE!
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Deciduous Forest Cat
2/7/2023 2:18 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.
...but any market that involves a huge chunk of the labor going unpaid isn't exactly a free market.
Nope. Scholarship even to public school clocks in around 25k/year and many places much more. If you don't see the value in that scholarship, then you shouldn't be playing college football anyway.
This thought is quite outdated and unrealistic
It's not considered enough, apparently, but it is the truth and should not be ignored.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
2/7/2023 2:24 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?

Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.

Exactly and that 8,300 hundred figure for last Saturday vs. Miami was a JOKE!
Oye. It's been 20+ years since we started counting tickets instead of turnstyle flips (like every sports venue on the planet). Christ, give it a rest. in the 90s students didn't even have tickets they just showed up and flashed their IDs. That system was way behind the times.
No there weren't 8300 in the house saturday. we know that. everyone knows that. but I'm the first one to shoot down crowd "over" estimates and it looked like a solid 7000-7500. So what? What is your point? Should they do 2 counts? tickets sold and special Alan/BTC count?
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L.C.
2/7/2023 4:45 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
Oye. It's been 20+ years since we started counting tickets instead of turnstyle flips (like every sports venue on the planet). Christ, give it a rest. in the 90s students didn't even have tickets they just showed up and flashed their IDs. That system was way behind the times.
No there weren't 8300 in the house saturday. we know that. everyone knows that. but I'm the first one to shoot down crowd "over" estimates and it looked like a solid 7000-7500. So what? What is your point? Should they do 2 counts? tickets sold and special Alan/BTC count?

The specific numbers are irrelevant. The only question we are trying to answer is "Does the quality of what people see affect attendance". If it does, then:
1. Attendance should have declined between 2000 and 2004, due to teams struggling
2. Attendance should have declined in 2006 due to off the field issues
3. Attendance should have risen from 2008 to 2016

I think all of these happened. The reported numbers may not be accurate, but they seem to show that all of these happened. While we have seen arguments over specific numbers, no one has said "Really, attendance in 2004 was higher than in 2012".

I believe that, whether you are talking about movies, theater, music, or sports, the quality of the product does affect attendance, and affects it significantly. In fact, I don't believe that there is anyone who really disputes that, and I believe that those that claim to not believe it are just trolling us.
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BillyTheCat
2/7/2023 6:52 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?

Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.

Exactly and that 8,300 hundred figure for last Saturday vs. Miami was a JOKE!
Oye. It's been 20+ years since we started counting tickets instead of turnstyle flips (like every sports venue on the planet). Christ, give it a rest. in the 90s students didn't even have tickets they just showed up and flashed their IDs. That system was way behind the times.
No there weren't 8300 in the house saturday. we know that. everyone knows that. but I'm the first one to shoot down crowd "over" estimates and it looked like a solid 7000-7500. So what? What is your point? Should they do 2 counts? tickets sold and special Alan/BTC count?
We did not count correctly/accurately when it was turnstile clicks either
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TWT
2/7/2023 9:58 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
Even if we sell out Peden we don’t make money. Now pay our coach 1M and it’s even worse. You may think that sports are the most important thing on the planet. It’s obvious our students and town don’t think so, or our numbers would be higher. I’m glad our prez and AD have some common sense. If you think it’s so important to pay our coaches top dollar, get our your check book.
The goal of athletics is not to turn a profit. The goal is to have the students show out by putting on a competitive product. Serve as a source of pride for the university and alumni. Basketball crossed that threshold in the 60's so its tough to put the genie back in the bottle. A university doesn't have to be a football school or a basketball school for those sports to be a point of pride.

If you are saying students aren't going to OU sports I don't know about that either when our biggest in-state competitors for students are OSU and UC. Last year the freshman class had close to 4,000 students. Nice facilities are expected when you have competition like that.
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Buckeye to Bobcat
2/8/2023 9:25 AM
Don't look now....but he's getting rumored for the Notre Dame OC job....

Think Toledo would def be happy with him taking that job over and taking a cut versus paying him.
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Alan Swank
2/8/2023 3:14 PM
Interesting article in relation to attendance and scheduling:

https://www.standard.net/sports/weber-state/2022/oct/20/c... ).
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bobcatsquared
2/8/2023 9:40 PM
Interesting find, Alan. Would love someone to take a more Ohio-centric look similar to this one concentrating on Utah.
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Alan Swank
2/9/2023 9:59 AM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
Interesting find, Alan. Would love someone to take a more Ohio-centric look similar to this one concentrating on Utah.
If you look at our 21 - 22 basketball schedule, I'd wager big money that most people who attend games in the Convo couldn't tell you where 5 of our first 11 opponents are located.
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colobobcat66
2/9/2023 10:06 AM
Per reports Miami and Notre Dame both interested in Candle as OC. Per tweets, he turned down the Miami job on January 22 and got the contract extension, but is still being pursued by Miami. Notre Dame is looking at 4-5 collegiate candidates ( including our friend Sean Lewis who just signed on at Colorado)
Last Edited: 2/9/2023 10:31:13 AM by colobobcat66
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
2/9/2023 12:55 PM
Is it a relatively new thing that mid-major head coaches are leaving to be coordinators at P5 programs?

Outside of the money, is it also just a better trajectory for coaches?
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colobobcat66
2/9/2023 2:51 PM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
Is it a relatively new thing that mid-major head coaches are leaving to be coordinators at P5 programs?

Outside of the money, is it also just a better trajectory for coaches?
Not too often from FBS schools but if it does it’s likely to be a MAC one where the salaries are so high-not.
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BillyTheCat
2/9/2023 3:23 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?

Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.
The number of actual manufactured seats I've counted is 21,600. The mound was supposed to be 24,000 and now I'm seeing 28,000 on Wikipedia as I guess they've reopened the band stand in the endzone for seating.

Given that crowds in Peden can surge well north of 21,600 it would make sense to upgrade the student section with another 4,000 seats, videoboards, concessions. Better egress for safety. Make Peden into one of the more impressive stadiums in the MAC if done right.
I have no idea why we have not built a 2nd deck yet. And that extra capacity is the Sook
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L.C.
2/10/2023 11:53 AM
colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
Is it a relatively new thing that mid-major head coaches are leaving to be coordinators at P5 programs?

Outside of the money, is it also just a better trajectory for coaches?
Not too often from FBS schools but if it does it’s likely to be a MAC one where the salaries are so high-not.

The pay for a coordinator position at a P5 school is definitely higher than the typical ~$500k pay for a head coach in the MAC, but the trajectory for a head coach job is slower. Still, if a G5 head coach doesn't get an opportunity to jump up to P5 after about 5 years, they are no longer a "hot, rising star", at which point, they may elect to broaden their resume, so sometimes they take an OC/DC position in G5. If successful there, they may get another chance for a head coaching job later, since their resume now includes both success at the G5 level as a head coach, and success at the P5 level as a coordinator.

Thus after 5 years of reasonable success at Kent State, Sean Lewis jumped to an OC position at Colorado State. Not too many years ago, Dan Enos left CMU to become OC for Arkansas, and has later served on the staffs at Michigan, Alabama, Miami, and Maryland, before returning to Arkansas. Will either end up as a head coach again? Who knows? Maybe they like the less stressful position as a OC, and are perfectly happy being an OC?

Note that Jason Candle will be on his 8th year at Toledo this fall. He is past the stage of being a "hot, rising star", and instead is just a solid coach with reliable success. Another coach in the MAC in that position is Chris Creighton at EMU, who will be in his 9th season at EMU this fall.

Thus, I see three plausible reasons why a MAC head coach might take an OC/DC position in G5:
1. Better money
2. Broaden the resume
3. Not so much in the eye (and wrath) of media and fans
Last Edited: 2/10/2023 11:54:28 AM by L.C.
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bobcatsquared
2/10/2023 1:52 PM
Great points, LC. However, it's possible that a OC or DC at a power 5 might be under more media/fan pressure that a HC in the MAC. I'm thinking of OC Tommy Rees at ND for the past few years or the DC at o$u the past few years. And I'm sure there are others.
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colobobcat66
2/10/2023 3:27 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Is it a relatively new thing that mid-major head coaches are leaving to be coordinators at P5 programs?

Outside of the money, is it also just a better trajectory for coaches?
Not too often from FBS schools but if it does it’s likely to be a MAC one where the salaries are so high-not.

The pay for a coordinator position at a P5 school is definitely higher than the typical ~$500k pay for a head coach in the MAC, but the trajectory for a head coach job is slower. Still, if a G5 head coach doesn't get an opportunity to jump up to P5 after about 5 years, they are no longer a "hot, rising star", at which point, they may elect to broaden their resume, so sometimes they take an OC/DC position in G5. If successful there, they may get another chance for a head coaching job later, since their resume now includes both success at the G5 level as a head coach, and success at the P5 level as a coordinator.

Thus after 5 years of reasonable success at Kent State, Sean Lewis jumped to an OC position at Colorado State. Not too many years ago, Dan Enos left CMU to become OC for Arkansas, and has later served on the staffs at Michigan, Alabama, Miami, and Maryland, before returning to Arkansas. Will either end up as a head coach again? Who knows? Maybe they like the less stressful position as a OC, and are perfectly happy being an OC?

Note that Jason Candle will be on his 8th year at Toledo this fall. He is past the stage of being a "hot, rising star", and instead is just a solid coach with reliable success. Another coach in the MAC in that position is Chris Creighton at EMU, who will be in his 9th season at EMU this fall.

Thus, I see three plausible reasons why a MAC head coach might take an OC/DC position in G5:
1. Better money
2. Broaden the resume
3. Not so much in the eye (and wrath) of media and fans

Big negative, usually smaller or no buyouts, do the coordinators are often the scapegoat when a coach doesn’t win.
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GoCats105
2/10/2023 3:57 PM
If you think about it from the coaches' perspective, why grind away in relative obscurity for half the salary as a head coach in the MAC when you could be in a coordinator position at a P5 school where most of the pressure isn't on you anymore? Go collect a check for a few years (or more if you're up to snuff).
Last Edited: 2/10/2023 3:58:29 PM by GoCats105
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TWT
2/11/2023 3:03 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?

Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.
The number of actual manufactured seats I've counted is 21,600. The mound was supposed to be 24,000 and now I'm seeing 28,000 on Wikipedia as I guess they've reopened the band stand in the endzone for seating.

Given that crowds in Peden can surge well north of 21,600 it would make sense to upgrade the student section with another 4,000 seats, videoboards, concessions. Better egress for safety. Make Peden into one of the more impressive stadiums in the MAC if done right.
I have no idea why we have not built a 2nd deck yet. And that extra capacity is the Sook
There are only two buildings unaccounted for yet on the 2016 campus master plan.

Ping Aquatic Center
Convo Basketball Practice Facility

Everything else has either been built, obligated for or is in the planning stages (The Ridges falls under this one). I can't see how it can be that many more years to go on these two. The maximum lifespan of the aquatic center is 50 years so perhaps another decade to retire it but its going to take 4 years to plan, obligate and build.
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