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Topic: MAC Only Stats
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Bcat2
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Posted: 10/23/2011 5:47 PM
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Click the link.

http://www.mac-sports.com/portals/20/MAC/Stats/2011FB/confonly.htm 

What I like; 1st in 3rd Down Conversions & tied for 2nd in Avg 1st Downs/game. Harden is #1 in All Purpose yards/game.

And yet there are fans that don't like the offense.  Seems the Ohio coaches know what they are doing. 
RSBobcat
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Posted: 10/23/2011 11:28 PM
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Red Zone stats not impressive - either side of the ball...............
Panda
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Posted: 10/24/2011 9:16 AM
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What about penalities? We are the highest. This cannot help us to maintain the winning formula.
Doc Bobcat
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Posted: 10/24/2011 9:41 AM
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RSBobcat wrote:expand_more
Red Zone stats not impressive - either side of the ball...............


Time of possesion kinda sucks as well.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 10/24/2011 10:08 AM
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Doc Bobcat wrote:expand_more
Red Zone stats not impressive - either side of the ball...............


Time of possesion kinda sucks as well.


I loved time of possession as a stat when we were an option team. As a no-huddle team, I've come to pretty much disregard it.
anorris
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Posted: 10/24/2011 2:55 PM
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Time of Possession has to be one of the most meaningless statistics ever created.
Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 10/24/2011 3:04 PM
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anorris wrote:expand_more
Time of Possession has to be one of the most meaningless statistics ever created.


Half credit. Usually it's meaningless at levels higher than junior high.

It's not meaningless for Navy or Georgia Tech, though.

Time of possession by itself without touchdowns is meaningless. Time of possession combined with touchdown drives are an unbeatable combination.

Theoretically, if you can drive the field in 25 plays and use up every second of a quarter, T.O.P is the most important statistic in football.

I've been around offenses that could go on 22 play drives and take 13 minutes to score. We were boring as hell to watch, but the other team never got the ball.

In baseball sabermetrics have pretty much discarded old truisms successfully and rightfully. In football, the truism that you can't score if you don't have the ball can't be disproven.
Last Edited: 10/24/2011 3:08:54 PM by Brian Smith (No, not that one)
L.C.
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Posted: 10/24/2011 5:44 PM
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As others have pointed out, time of possession can be a very important stat, or an unimportant stat, depending on the circumstances. It can tell the story of the game, or it can tell nothing useful at all.

As for penalties, higher penalties are correlated weakly to higher winning percentages. The correlation is weak because penalties come in a variety of forms. Penalties that are caused by being aggressive aren't necessarily bad - an absence of them may indicate a passive team, unlikely to win. On the other hand, there are also stupid penalties, and those are a negative indicator.

To me there are two very negative stats for Ohio. One is that no team has turned the ball over more than Ohio. The other is that only Kent as produced less points per trip to the red zone. Ohio is at 4.3 points a trip, only slightly worst than Temple at 4.4, but both are far, far behind the amazing 6.8 points a trip for Toledo.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 10/24/2011 7:15 PM
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One thing for sure-Toledo is the class of the MAC.  These stats will mean a lot more at the end of the season, as the 4 game stats depend in large part on what your schedule has been.   The toughest part of our MAC schedule is about to begin, I can't predict an easy win anywhere, certainly not Miami-the worst team of the lot probably.  We have not seen a passing offense like CMU or a rushing team like Temple(if Pierce is healtly) or a defense like Temple, so I take these early stats with a grain of salt.  You can see some strong indications of what you have, but these stats can change as personnel availability changes and opponents change.  Hold on to your hats.

anorris
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Posted: 10/25/2011 2:18 AM
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While a few years old, this largely sums up my ideas about TOP:

http://mgoblog.com/content/i-hate-time-possession

There are too many variable things about TOP (pass vs. rush, running out of bounds, etc.) that skew it.  A pass-heavy team could quickly fall behind an option team in TOP, but run just as many or more plays, due to the clock behavior on incompletions.

At the end of the day, each team will have roughly the same number of possessions, +/- a couple based on who controls the ball at the end of the half.  I'd be curious to see some tempo-free basketball style points-per-possession stats for football.

That would give good relative weight to TDs vs. FGs, and provide significant penalties for turnovers and fumbles.  It would fall down a bit on non-scoring drives, as we can all agree a punt to the opponent's 1 yard line is a far better outcome than a pick on your own 10.  Then you get into all kinds of fun...

http://www.drivebyfootball.com/2011/03/expected-points-net-expected-points.html
Last Edited: 10/25/2011 2:27:05 AM by anorris
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